Stocks & Equities

Lulu-sucking Lemons

McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group / Richardson GMP Limited
Lululemon – One Year Chart
Lululemon – Seven Year Chart

On the theme of a crumbling Loonie being a potential help for Canadian exporters, recent share price action in Lululemon would suggest that the company is not quite seeing those benefits yet.

To be fair, Lululemon has gone through a bit of corporate turmoil in the last couple of months.  But, if they are hoping for some relief offered by the falling Loonie, it should be pointed out that Canadian manufactured export goods as a whole have not ticked up measurably since the Loonie began its skid.  Even Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz has been frustrated by this fact.

In the end, Lululemon may have to find some other way to grow faster again.  A big task for its new managers.

 

Lululemon (LULU) is not held in the McIver-Jasayko Model Portfolios as of January 22, 2014.  Comments about LULU are not intended as advice and do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  

Richardson GMP Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited.

The Bouncing Blackberry

McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group / Richardson GMP Limited
Blackberry – One Year Chart
Blackberry – Seven Year Chart

A new year, a new CEO, a new strategy (sort of), and new hope expressed by shareholders of Blackberry. 

And heck, the plummeting Loonie can’t hurt, especially in selling cheap phones in the Middle East and Africa.

That said, we have seen hope ebb and flow with Blackberry before.  It is one of those Canadian stocks that we have seen in the past that is offered reprieve after reprieve from investors.

And, to put things in perspective, check out the seven year chart of Blackberry above.  It is hard to spot the recent bump compared to where the stock has been before.

 

Blackberry (BB) is not held in the McIver-Jasayko Model Portfolios as of January 22, 2014.  Comments about BB are not intended as advice and do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  

Richardson GMP Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited.

The Loonie Gets Its Wings Clipped

McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group / Richardson GMP Limited
Canadian Dollar vs the US Dollar – One Year
Canadian Dollar vs the US Dollar – Seven Years

The Canadian dollar touched a low of 90.06 cents vs the U.S. dollar in trading today primarily because the Bank of Canada kept the Bank Rate unchanged.  This, combined with signs of sluggish economic growth and a jump in unemployment, was enough for foreign investors to begin focusing away from Canada.

Bloomberg News even ran a story today about how Canada had lost the “haven” status that it had acquired after the Global Credit Crisis and Great Recession in 2008-2009.

There is also speculation that the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, is rather happy with the direction of the Loonie as this will help the primarily Eastern Canada-based manufacturing exporters.  He was once the President of Export Development Canada.  This might be an indication of where his heart is.

It also appears that he is not immediately sympathetic with the plight of cross-border shoppers or Canadians that might be looking to buy property down in the Sunbelt of the U.S.  The fall in the Loonie will also sting foreigners who have bought Canadian real estate over the past few years.

Also, in a bit of a contradiction, he said that he was increasingly concerned about inflation in Canada.  Well, one of the quickest ways to increase the risk of inflation is to let your currency devalue.  The cost of all imports will rise in that scenario, which sounds a lot like inflation to me.

 

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

Richardson GMP Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited.

Excessive Complacency?

McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group / Richardson GMP Limited
Volatility in Stocks over One Year
Volatility in Stocks over Seven Years

Today there was a great deal of trader chat on the floors in New York and Chicago about institutions buying call options on the volatility index (The VIX).  Essentially, this is a short-term bet that that the VIX will rise which means they are concerned about stocks becoming more volatility (which is another way to say they are concerned about stocks going down).

As we can see in the two charts above, the VIX is at a relatively low level compared to where it has been over the past year and over the past seven years.  In fact, 2013 and the start into 2014 has been eerily quiet in terms of volatility in equities.  Maybe this is enough to spook those institutions to look for some cover.

 

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

Richardson GMP Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited.

The Ultimate Secret of the Ultra Rich

Screen Shot 2014-01-22 at 2.20.32 PMWhat separates the rich from the rest of us? 

“They have more money,” said Hemingway. 

But how did they get it? How do they hold onto it? 

That’s a bit more complicated. 

I recently drove through a working class neighborhood in Baltimore called Dundalk. It is an area of simple one- and two-story wooden houses on small lots.

Fifty years ago, it was where Baltimore’s industrial labor force lived. They worked in industry – for Bethlehem Steel, General Motors, The B&O Railroad and in the busy harbor. 

Today, those high-wage industries are mostly silent and rusting. Some sites along the water have been converted to loft apartments for Baltimore’s young professionals. And some of the children and grandchildren have moved away – to the suburbs or to other cities. 

But most of them are still there. Their parents and grandparents earned a good living. But few got rich. And now, few of their descendants are rich either. 

Across town in the rich “old” northern suburbs of Roland Park and Ruxton the people are different. 

The rich left the city many years ago. But in these green suburbs they remain. Some richer. Some poorer. But, by and large, the same people whose parents were there 50 years ago. 

What accounts for it? 

How come some families stay rich generation after generation, while others never have a nickel? 

“Culture,” you will say. 

“Education,” perhaps. 

You won’t be wrong. But what, specifically, about culture and education is it that makes such a big difference in outcomes? 

Simply put, you might say the secret is that these “Old Money” families take the long view. 

But there is something deeper and more important. These families know how to turn time into an ally instead of an enemy.   

They have worked out very specific strategies that use time to boost investment returns (much higher rates of return… with lower risk). 

And they have worked out ways to use time to prepare the family to not only protect money… but to make it grow

This is why they invest in education and training. And why they make sure family members add to their collective wealth, rather than subtracting from it. 

It is why they try to guide their children to suitable spouses. They know that a rotten apple will spoil the barrel. 

It is why they spend time and money on lawyers and accountants, too – making sure that the structures are in place to pass along wealth and protect it. 

It is why they prefer deep value assets over momentum investing. Over time, value rises to the top. Momentum slows. 

It is why they will wait a long time – many, many years – for the right investment at the right price. 

It is why they like investments with long-term payoffs – such as timber, mining and infrastructure. And it’s how they are able to benefit from compound growth – letting relatively modest gains grow over several generations. 

It is why they are almost fanatical about eliminating costs – taxes, investment charges and unrewarding living expenses. They know that wear and tear, over time, will wreck their family fortunes. 

It is why they develop long-lasting partnerships with the professionals they need to make sure their interests are protected and their plans are carried out. 

Let me ask you something. If you thought you’d live forever, would you do anything different? 

Wouldn’t your attitude to your money change a little? Wouldn’t you slow down, realizing that you’re not in such a hurry to make money? 

And wouldn’t you reduce your spending too – knowing that your money would have to last you a long, long time? 

The truly wealthy are careful to spend their money on things that hold their value over time. 

It is why they do not trade in and out of investments. Instead, they find a few positions and stick with them – for decades. 

It is also why they prepare their families, over the course of many, many years, so that they will be prepared for the challenge of managing and enlarging the family wealth. 

This is what separates the serious money from the here-today-gone-tomorrow crowd. The serious money knows there’s a lot more to successful wealth building… especially over the long run… than just stock picking. 

Instead of trying to control the uncontrollable – the returns you get from stocks – they are focused on what they can control. 

Of course, most really wealthy families have a family office somewhere in the background making sure these things are on track. 

And without someone dedicating time to making these things happen, they often don’t. Most generational wealth transfers fail. Money that was hard earned is lost through poor investment decisions and lack of planning. 

When it comes down to it, you might say that successful families do all the things unsuccessful families don’t want to do. 

These things take work. But if you’re determined to keep wealth in the family, the sooner you start on them, the better. 

Sincerely,

Bill-Bonner sig

Bill Bonner
Editor, Diary of a Rogue Economist

P.S. Membership is currently closed at Bonner & Partners Family Office. The next intake – our only one of the year – is in February 2014. If you’d like to receive an invitation to join at that time, simply fill out this brief declaration of interest form.

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