Bonds & Interest Rates

Canada’s inflation rate quickened somewhat to 1.2 per cent in December, higher than November’s level but still low by historical standards.

Statistics Canada said Friday the consumer price index was led higher by gasoline, which was 4.7 per cent more expensive at the end of 2013 than it was at the end of 2012.

The loonie reacted mildly positively to the news, trading up about a quarter of a cent to 90.34 cents US.

If pump prices are stripped out, inflation would have come in at 1.1 per cent.

That’s still within the band of between one and three per cent, where the Bank of Canada likes to see the rate stay, but it has been on the lower end of that range for a while.

In its latest interest rate decision, the central bank said it expects inflation to remain subdued for a while yet.

Canada’s inflation rate averaged 0.9 per cent last year. That’s down from 1.5 per cent in 2012 and the softest rate since during the recession in 2009.

“When we are already below [our inflation] target, as we are today, we care more about downside risks than upside ones,” Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said earlier this week.

That’s the central bank’s way of saying it’s less concerned about prices rising to fast, and instead focused on ensuring the economy doesn’t slip any further into disinflation or even deflation.

There’s a lag time of a few months before the impact of Canada’s lower loonie is likely to show itself in inflation data. So economists are expecting the inflation number to come in on the low end of the central bank’s target range for the next several months.

“The inching up in year-on-year [inflation] should not give the [central bank] very much solace on inflation,” Scotiabank said in a commentary Friday morning.

“We don’t expect annual CPI to remain above 1 per cent for too long,” the bank said.

No inflation Friday – “One Of The Greatest Lies Of The Modern Financial System”

inflationOne of the greatest lies of the modern financial system (and that’s really saying something) is about inflation.

The puppet masters who control the system have managed to convince people that deflation = bad, and inflation = necessary evil.

Perhaps the even bigger lie is that of the actual inflation statistics. They tell us that there’s no inflation… or minimal inflation. 

And they tell us that the ‘target’ rate is 2%. Bear in mind that 2% annual inflation means your currency will lose over 75% of its value during the course of your lifetime. 

But these figures are massively understated. And you don’t have to look hard for proof. 

US postage stamp rates, for example, are set to increase this weekend. They’ve been going up almost every year since 2006.

This weekend, the rate for a one-ounce first class letter will rise to 49c from 46c, a 6.5% increase. And the price to send a postcard will rise from 33c to 34c, a 3.0% increase. 

If you take a longer-term view, the price of a postcard back in 1951 was just one cent. This means that the dollar has lost over 97% of its value against postcard shipping rates in the last six decades. 

Let’s look at this another way. 

According to the US Department of Labor, the average household income in 1950 was $4,237. This means that the average US household could afford to send 423,700 postcards back then. 

Today’s median household income is $51,017 (and that’s for a majority of dual-income households). This means the average family in the Land of the Free can now afford to send about 150,050 postcards. 

It’s a huge difference. The standard of living denominated in postcards has declined by nearly two-thirds since the 1950s.

Short-term, long-term, the conclusion is the same: Inflation exists.

And any suggestion to the contrary that inflation is ‘good’ or at least a ‘necessary evil’ is simply a lie. It destroys both purchasing power and standard of living.

Rational, thinking people need to be aware of this. If you hold a lot of your savings in a bank denominated in paper currencies like the dollar or euro, you will lose.

And I’d strongly urge you to consider holding at least a portion of your savings in stronger, more stable currencies, or better yet, alternative asset classes that cannot be inflated away by central bankers.

This includes productive real estate, precious metals, or even collectibles.

 

Have a great weekend, 
Signature 
Simon Black 
Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com

Why Gold Stocks are Leading Gold

At the start of the year we asserted that the mining equities could lead the metals higher. Since then, the shares have roared higher while the metals have remained subdued. Gold has gained a bit but Silver has really struggled. Why are the stocks performing so well if the metals are not confirming?

The main reason is the stocks led the metals down (specifically Gold) during the bear market. The chart below plots CDNX (Canadian juniors), GDXJ (US juniors), GDX (large caps) and Gold. Note that both junior markets peaked months before Gold. GDX technically peaked at the same time but began its topping process in December 2010, well before Gold peaked.

jan23ed11top

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The stocks essentially began to underperform in December 2010 and then peaked a few months later. Most companies peaked even before Gold went parabolic! As a result, most mining stocks have been in a bear market longer than Gold and may have already discounted the worst. It makes sense that they would bottom first and there is a precedent for that scenario.

The chart below shows the action in the HUI and Gold during the 2000-2001 bottom. The HUI bottomed in November while Gold formed a double bottom in February and April. The HUI barely corrected when Gold declined to its first bottom. The HUI did decline nearly 20% before the April bottom in Gold but that was after it rebounded 70% in only four months. Moreover, the HUI exploded after Gold’s final bottom in April.

jan23ed2000bottom

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moving along, another reason for stock outperformance is because the relationship to Gold recently reached a historic extreme. I am usually not a fan of comparinggold stocks to Gold. Over time the gold stock sector as a whole struggles to outperform Gold. It badly underperformed in the 1970s and has badly underperformed over the past five years. However, this relationship (gold stocks vs. Gold) recently hit a 70-year low! When something reaches that type of extreme, we have to take note. (Source: NowandFutures.com)

jan23edgoldvsbgmi

It turns out that there have been two great buying opportunities in the stocks (June 2013 and December 2013) with a possible third to come. During Gold’s final decline in 2001 the HUI shed about 20%. Yet Gold rebounded strongly and the HUI did too, exploding 65% in less than two months. If Gold hasn’t bottomed then its final bottom (presumably in the coming months) could offer another major opportunity for the mining stocks.

That being said, an investor should not wait for a correction or buying opportunity just weeks after an important bottom. What happened to those who waited for the S&P in 2009, the gold stocks in November 2008, the S&P in 2003 or the gold stocks in 2001? As we said last week, the risk has shifted from getting caught in a final plunge to missing out on the rebound. Make your list of favorites and selectively accumulate rather than chase strength. If you’d be interested in learning about the companies poised to rocket out of this bottom then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

 

Eight Habits to Turn ‘New Money’ into ‘Old Money’

imagesWhat distinguishes “new money” from “old money”? 

I’m often asked this question because I recently set up something called a “family office.” The aim of a family office is to perform this feat of alchemy. It must take money that’s earned today… and make sure it’s around for the next generation. 

Most people think preserving money is all about what stocks you pick and which money managers you employ. Not at all. 

What matters most is the right family culture. Families with old money all have their own norms, values and no-nos. These largely determine their success or failure over time. 

What follows is a list of eight taboos for families who want to create “old money.” You will have your own list. What’s important is that you spend time instilling the values on your list in your kids and grandkids. Your family’s success rests on their shoulders. 

1. Consuming, not Producing 

Give $1 million to an average person, and he immediately thinks of what it will buy. But give a million to an old-money family, and it goes into a business… an investment… or a new entrepreneurial venture. 

What matters for old money is producing, not consuming. We don’t want to consume goods and services. We don’t want to consume information and ideas. We don’t want to consume Wall Street’s fee-stuffed products for high-net-worth individuals, either. 

Let others drive their fancy cars, carry their expensive handbags and have their addresses in the chic zip codes. Old money doesn’t show off by buying things. It prefers to keep a low profile… and a low cost of living. 

Old money knows that investment costs have to be kept down, too. The best way to do that is to avoid hedge funds and structured products. Stick with simple, low-cost, long-term investments. 

2. Spending the Family Fortune 

“Never touch the capital” is a hallowed tradition among old-money families. You may spend the interest on the family fortune – even the capital gains it produces. But woe to the heir who draws down the principal. 

The principal must be kept intact. Any distributions should be of interest, after taxes and inflation adjustments. At today’s low interest rates, it is hard to earn much income – safely – from your investments. 

Families are tempted to “dip into capital” to make ends meet. There’s a taboo against it for good reason. Once you begin living on a previous generation’s savings, you will find it hard to stop… until the family fortune is all gone. 

“Eat only what you kill” – as our family governance strategic partner, Joseph McLiney, put it at our recent Family Wealth Forum in Nicaragua – it is a better way of expressing the taboo against spending family wealth. 

It allows you to spend only what you make yourself. The earnings from capital go back into the family fortune, replacing losses from inflation and taxes. 

3. Doing What Others Do 

Most people want to fit in. They seek social approval by doing what other people do. But if you do what other people do, you will get the results that they get. You will become average… just like they are. 

Having wealth is rare. Having it for more than one generation is rarer still. You don’t do that by doing what other people do. You have to think more clearly… and avoid many of the ideas, values and habits that most people have. 

You must be willing to be different. Sorry. But that’s the price of having old money. 

4. Making a Public Spectacle of Yourself 

Paris Hilton may have enjoyed getting her face in People magazine. But the Hilton family didn’t like it at all. Old money likes to keep things private. It favors private businesses, private information, private investments and private lives. 

Private businesses are more profitable to their owners than publicly quoted stocks. They pay fewer legal and accounting fees and spend much less money trying to please investors and the media. 

Today, publicly traded businesses in the U.S. distribute a measly 2%-3% of their profits to shareholders. A privately owned and controlled business, on the other hand, may return significantly more of its earnings to shareholders. 

It may give the owners corner offices, too. In a public company, much of the earnings go to pay CEOs and corporate managers. In a privately controlled corporation, the owners decide who gets the money. 

Old-money families also learn to discount public information – the stuff you get from newspapers and TV. They put a premium on their private information sources. They trust their own eyes and ears… and their personal contacts. 

This attitude informs old-money families’ investments. Rather than invest on the basis of what everybody knows, they try to pin their investments on what they know that other people don’t. Deep knowledge of particular industries is developed. Special “family secrets” are encouraged. 

Jobs, financing, insurance and a helping hand are available when needed. Old money looks to private sources – primary among them the family – for what it needs. 

5. Too Busy to Make Money 

It’s capital that counts, not income. Most people – even high earners – are on a treadmill. They earn. They consume. There isn’t much left. Since their consumption depends on their income, they are eager to increase their income at every opportunity. 

Not so with old money. It knows that in the long run, income barely matters. It knows, too, that expenses normally rise with income, but not with real capital gains. 

In other words, when you earn more money, your taxes rise… and you tend to spend the extra money on lifestyle enhancements. But if the value of the family farm goes up, the extra wealth tends to stay put. (See No. 7 below.) 

Old-money families don’t care as much about income as they do about capital. Often, they live in houses that were bought many years ago (no mortgages)… they drive cars that were fully depreciated during the Clinton administration (no car payments; no loss in value)… and they eschew costly fads and fashions of all sorts. 

The typical young person is encouraged to go out and get the best-paying job he can find. Then he enters the labor force and spends the rest of his life trying to stay ahead of his expenses. He becomes a living example of the old expression, “Too busy to make money.” 

I tell my children: “Don’t worry about how much you make. Worry about what you learn… and what you end up with. Tell your employer you’d rather have equity than a salary increase.” 

This is true in your careers. And it is true in your investments. If you worry too much about the current yield, you are likely to miss the real payoff later. 

Trading out of winning stock positions, for example, can trigger taxes and incurs trading costs. In your work, as in your investments, you are better off ignoring income and short-term gains in favor of long-term capital growth. 

6. Trying to Beat the Market 

We all have seen the study results. Most of your investment profits come from being in the right market at the right time (beta), not from picking individual stocks (alpha). 

Trying to beat the market is a losers’ game. You can count on two hands the number of professional money managers that do it with any consistency. Most individual investors end up having the market beat them. 

If you stick to the romantic notion of beating the market, sometimes you will get it right. Other times you won’t. Over the long run, you will make too many mistakes and probably end up poorer than when you started. 

It is better to find a decent market – a beta position – and sit tight. Trading in and out of it… or moving from one market to another… is usually disastrous. The results over the last 30 years, for example, show that an investor in oil, gold, stocks or bonds – had he simply just sat on his positions the whole time – would have had an average annual gain three or four times as high as the average investor during that period. 

Why? 

Because the average investor couldn’t sit still. 

I use the term “beta” in a broader sense, too: It is important that you and your family are in the right place at the right time. 

One hundred years ago, for example, Russia had one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. But it didn’t matter how good an investor you were. If you had stayed in Russia at the turn of the last century, you would have lost all your money. Stocks, bonds, real estate – all were confiscated by the Bolsheviks. And your family would have waited two full generations before it could begin rebuilding its wealth. 

That’s why we spend so much time trying to understand what is going on in the world. Beta matters. 

And we’re not alone. A report in a recent Financial Times tells us that most rich people “make the same investment mistakes as the rest.” In short, they go with investment fashions – notably hot hedge funds – rather than sticking to a sensible long-term discipline. 

But “the richest of the rich… are different,” the report concludes. They “started liquidating their portfolios and slugging money into cash as early as the summer of 2007. [T]he suspicion has to remain that the very wealthiest escaped into cash because they, almost uniquely, understood the gravity of the situation.” 

Why? Because the richest were focused on beta. And they weren’t distracted by alpha. 

7. Selling the Family Farm 

Ordinary people need liquidity. Banks need liquidity. The whole financial system needs liquidity. But it’s illiquidity that works for old money. 

Families fare best when they have old assets that are hard to buy, hard to run and hard to sell. A family farm, for example. 

It’s not easy to sell a family farm. Family members develop a sentimental attachment to it. It’s hard to get all the family to agree on a sale. And you usually can’t sell it in pieces. You can’t fritter it away. It’s all or nothing – a big decision that takes time and reflection. 

Families tend to hold onto their illiquid assets… and they grow. 

8. “Na… Na… Na Live for Today” 

Old-money families know they have to give up something today to have more tomorrow – accepting a short-term disadvantage for a long-term strategic advantage. 

Great businesses, great families and great fortunes take time. You have to be willing to invest time and effort… and wait for the payoff sometime in the future. Old money knows how to delay gratification, in other words. 

As Albert Einstein noted, compound interest is the ninth wonder of the world. But it only becomes a miracle at the end, not the beginning. That’s when you get the huge increases that create real family fortunes. 

These are 8 lessons I’ve learned from old money families about how to preserve wealth for generations. If you want details about how to put these ideas into practice and create a legacy of wealth for your family, then I hope you’ll fill out the Declaration of Interest formto find out more about my project, Bonner & Partners Family Office

This is the last email you will receive from me in this series. So, if you’re interested in what I’ve shared with you about building a family legacy, I do hope you’ll take the time to sign up and learn more about what I’m doing with my own money and Bonner & Partner Family Office

Sincerely, 

Bill Bonner
Editor, Diary of a Rogue Economist

P.S. Membership is currently closed at Bonner & Partners Family Office. The next intake – our only one of the year – is in February 2014. If you’d like to receive an invitation to join at that time, simply fill out this brief declaration of interest form.

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know.

— Global financial markets continue to get rocked even after Thursday’s massive sell-off, with the deepest moves coming from emerging markets. Asian markets got whacked in overnight trading, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.94% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 1.25% lower. European markets were down across the board, with France off the most. And U.S. futures are deep in the red with Dow futures down a whopping 96 points.

— A car bomb killed at least four people and wounded 50 at the main Egyptian police headquarters in Cairo. “The blast shook and damaged nearby buildings, including a museum and courthouse, and sent black smoke rising above the Egyptian capital as a large number of ambulances rushed to the scene,” the AP reported. The attack, which the AP called “hugely symbolic,” comes on the eve of the third anniversary of the riots that led to Hosni Mubarak’s 2011 ouster.

— The Australian dollar continues its vicious bloodletting. The currency has closed lower on 12 of the last 14 weeks. “The RBA is actively trying to talk the Aussie dollar down because it is concerned that up until around 3 months ago the Aussie traders weren’t reacting to the deterioration in the terms of trade in the manner they should have been – by selling,” writes Business Insider Australia’s Greg McKenna. “It’s Friday night before a public holiday in Australia which could make trading thinner than normal given the extra day traders need to hold any positions instituted tonight.”

— JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon just got a raise. The New York Times reports that Dimon, who saw his pay reduced to a measly $11.5 million last year following the London Whale debacle, fared better this year. The Times didn’t have an exact figure, but the boardroom debate “pitted a vocal minority of directors who wanted to keep his compensation largely flat, citing the approximately $20 billion in penalties JPMorgan has paid in the last year to federal authorities, against directors who argued that Mr. Dimon should be rewarded for his stewardship of the bank during such a difficult period,” according to the report.

— Reuters reports that activist investor Carl Icahn’s has a larger stake in in eBay than previously disclosed. Icahn’s stake is closer to 2%, according to the report. Icahn has said he hopes the company will spin off its highly-profitable PayPal unit. He also announced Thursday that he bought another $500 million worth of Apple stock, bringing his total to $3.6 billion.

— Microsoft beat earnings expectations yesterday right after the bell. Revenue came in at $24.52 billion versus the $23.68 billion consensus estimate, while EPS was $0.78 against the $0.68 consensus. The stock traded up 3% after hours.

— Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller knows a thing or two about bubbles. And at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Shiller said that Bitcoin certainly is one. “It is a bubble, there is no question about it…. It’s just an amazing example of a bubble,” he said, adding that he’s “amazed by how people are so excited about it.” He tells his students, “No, it’s not such a great idea.”

— British Prime Minister David Cameron thinks he will be able to keep the U.K. in the European Union, Reuters reports. Cameron will give citizens an “in/out” referendum on a plan to reshape EU ties if reelected next year. “I’m confident that we’ll have a successful renegotiation and a successful referendum,” he said during a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I’m confident this is do-able, deliverable and, as I say, winnable for Britain to stay in a reformed European Union.”

— The Japanese government predicts that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won’t be able to meet his budget-balancing promise under his current spending plan, Reuters reports. “Forecasts by the Finance Ministry, reviewed by Reuters on Friday, show that even in the rosiest of four scenarios, the government will run a primary budget deficit – which excludes debt service and income from debt sales – for the fiscal year to March 2021,” according to the report. “Under existing policy, Abe’s government has promised to halve the primary deficit by fiscal 2014/15 and bring it into balance five years later.”

— Droughts have been crushing beef prices. Live cattle contracts hit $1.43/lb. yesterday, the highest since the contract started in 1964. “There are a lot of cattle in America – just over 89 million head in total – but those numbers are down from 94 million in 2010,” wrote ConvergEx’s Nick Colas. “Pasture land doesn’t recovery from drought in just one or two years, so ranchers have to maintain lower herd sizes even when the weather improves. It did so this year, but numerous articles in local farming community newspapers seem to indicate that ranchers remain cautious despite this year’s better environment. Bottom line: U.S. herds are at a 60 year low and seem likely to remain depressed.” And in other environment-related news, there is a massive propane shortage in the United States right now.

Goldman Sachs’ Alec Phillips explains where we are ahead of the next debt ceiling deadline:

Our projection is generally consistent with the Treasury’s. The Treasury has in the past defined the deadline as the point at which borrowing authority has been exhausted and the cash balance dips below $50bn. This is an approximation of the cash balance that the Treasury considers prudent. Although the Treasury did not explicitly state the cash balance it expects in late February when the deadline is reached, our own projection implies that in the final days of February, the total headroom under the limit–the cash balance plus the change in debt outstanding–will total around $50bn.

Although there is often some discussion about how long the Treasury could continue after its projected deadline to make timely payments before it completely exhausts its cash balance, Congress has generally treated the Treasury’s stated deadline as the “real” deadline. There is not likely to be much time between these two dates in any case; if Congress fails raise the debt limit by the end of February, our estimates imply that the Treasury could deplete its cash balance as soon as the second week of March.



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