Currency

Real GDP in Cananda grew 0.2% in November, up for a fifth consecutive month.

Canadian Dollar futures are down 29 points this morning, trading to new 4 year lows at 88.99.

 

Drew Zimmerman

Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor

604-664-2842 – Direct

604 664 2900 – Main

604 664 2666 – Fax

800 810 7022 – Toll Free

dzimmerman@pifinancial.com

 

Richard Russell: It’s “inflate or die”

“I understand that there was almost a revolt at the Fed.  Certain members warned Bernanke to halt the Fed’s wild money creation, fearing that it would wind up in hyper-inflation.  But the Fed cannot completely halt its QE.  The Fed is now buying 90% of the Treasuries that are put out for sale.  

If the Fed halts its buying of Treasuries, who will buy them?  Certainly not China or USA investors.  Bernanke’s thinking or hoping is that continued Fed stimulus will result in the US economy becoming so strong on its own that in due time it won’t need any Fed stimulus.

However, matters are not working out in the way Bernanke wishes.  The economy is still dragging its feet, and employment is still lagging.  In the meantime, the banks, not the US populace, have prospered.  The banks’ reserves have been swelling.  What dissenting Fed members are worried about is that bank reserves are growing and are beginning to resemble water behind a dam, pressuring to be released.  When the dam finally breaks, all assets will go through the roof, and, as usual, leave the ever-suffering middle class behind.

So that’s the story and the problem of the era.  As I said years ago, the choice is, “inflate or die.”

Then there’s another excellent reason why Bernanke can’t cut back completely on the Fed’s machinations.  You see, the Fed has manipulated interest rates to ridiculously low levels.  The US must manage or carry trillions of dollars in Federal debt.  We are currently rolling over this debt at very low Fed-controlled interest rates.  But if interest rates are allowed to climb to their normal uncontrolled levels, the cost of carrying the nation’s debt (now $250 billion dollars annually) could rise to prohibitive levels — even into the trillions of dollars.

So there we are — to continue the Fed’s stimulation and manipulation adventures — or to back off and let the economy survive on its own?

So what do we do as investors and survivors?  My own choice is to hold physical gold with just enough cash to carry us through each week.  The amount of physical gold in the US is shrinking, and it’s going to China and India.  I believe the only danger to my plan is that possibly, in desperation, the US could confiscate gold from its people.

True, this was done by FDR back in 1933.  But this is a different world, and it’s not 1933.  I believe there would be so much opposition to a “gold confiscation” today that the government could not get away with it.  Besides, today many wealthy and influential people own gold, and they would constitute a powerful force against a government attempt to call in the people’s gold.

At any rate, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking on this subject, and my conclusion is that holding physical gold in your possession is safe and the best policy for surviving the difficult years that I believe lie ahead.

Question — what about buying and holding gold mining stocks, a category that has been denigrated and battered unmercifully?  Answer — I think they represent a good speculation, but I prefer the real deal, and that’s physical gold.

There is something else I want to talk about.  It’s China, now the world’s second biggest economy.  China’s debt is now 70% of its GDP, a ratio the analysts consider dangerous.  If China runs into trouble it will affect all of Asia and the rest of the world.

So let’s take a look at China on a chart.  What I see is a huge head-and-shoulders top that has just plunged below support.  The chart is telling me that the world’s second largest economy is in serious trouble. 

KWN Russell 1-31-2014

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE.

About Richard Russell

Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron’s during the late-’50s through the ’90s. Through Barron’s and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-’66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-’74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.

The Letters, published every three weeks, cover the US stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics –plus Russell’s widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.

Interesting: Business Development Companies

Institutional-Style-Investing-Pic1Business Development Companies (BDCs) are publicly traded private debt and equity funds. I know that description isn’t terribly sexy, but keep reading and you’ll find there’s a lot to be excited about.

BDCs provide financing to firms too small to seek traditional bank financing or to do an IPO, but at the same time are too advanced to interest the earliest-stage venture capitalist. These companies are often near or at profitability and just need extra cash to reach the next milestone. Filling this void, BDCs provide funds to target companies in exchange for interest payments and/or an equity stake.

BDCs earn their living by lending at interest rates higher than those at which they borrow. Conceptually, they act like banks or bond funds, but with access to yields unlike any you’ll see from a traditional bond fund. The interest rate spread—meaning the difference between their capital costs and interest they charge their clients—is a major component of their business.

Oftentimes, a BDC will increase its dividend when market interest rates have not changed. Like a bank, the more loans it has in force, the more it profits. Increasing its dividend payout will generally have a very positive effect on its share price.

Unlike banks or many other traditional financial institutions, however, BDCs are structured to pay out more than 90% of their net profits to the shareholders. In return, BDCs don’t pay any income tax. In essence, their profits flow through to the owners. Many investors like to own BDCs in an IRA to create tax-deferred or tax-free income. The opportunity to use them for tax planning purposes, access to diversified early-stage financing, and the impressive dividend yields they deliver make them a perfect fit for the Bulletproof Income strategy we employ at Miller’s Money Forever.

The Clients

As a business model, BDCs emerged in response to a particular need: early-stage companies needed funding but couldn’t do it publicly due to their small size. At the same time, these companies didn’t match the investment criteria of so-called angel investors or venture capital providers. Enter the Business Development Company.

BDC teams, through expertise and connections, select the most promising companies in their fields and provide funds in return for a debt or equity stake, expecting gains from a potential acquisition scenario and a flow of interest payments in the meantime. The ability to selectively lend money to the right startup companies is paramount. It makes little difference how much interest they charge if the client defaults on the loan.

With limited financing options, BDCs’ clients may incur strict terms regarding their debt arrangements. The debt often comes with a high interest rate, has senior-level status, and is often accompanied by deal sweeteners like warrants which add to the upside potential for those with a stake in the borrowing company.

In return for these stringent terms, the borrower can use the funds to:

•Increase its cash reserve for added security;

•Accelerate product development;

•Hire staff and purchase licenses necessary to advance R&D, etc.

•Invest in property, plant, and equipment to produce its product and bring it to market.

Turning to a BDC for funds allows a company to finance its development and minimize dilution of equity investors while reaching key value-adding milestones in the process.

What’s in It for Investors?

In addition to the unique opportunity to access early-stage financing, we like BDCs for their dividend policy and high yield. The Investment Act of 1940 requires vehicles such as BDCs to pay out a minimum of 90% of their earnings. In practice, they tend to pay out more than that, plus their short-term capital gains.

This often results in a high yield. Yields of 7-12% are common, which makes this vehicle unique in today’s low-yield environment. The risk is minimized by diversification—like a good bond fund, they spread their assets over many sectors. This rational approach and the resulting income make the right BDC(s) a great addition to our Bulletproof Income strategy.

BDCs and the Bulletproof Income Strategy

In short, BDCs serve our strategy by:

 

  • Providing inflation protection in the form of high yields and dividend growth;
  • Limiting our exposure to interest-rate risk, thereby adding a level of security (some BDCs borrow funds at variable rates, but not the ones we like);
  • Maintaining low leverage, which BDCs are legally required to do;
  • Distributing the vast majority of their income to shareholders, thereby creating an immediate link between the company’s operating success and the shareholders’ wellbeing… in other words, to keep their shareholders happy, BDCs have to perform well.

 

How Should You Pick a BDC?

Not every BDC out there qualifies as a sound investment. Here’s a list of qualities that make a BDC attractive.

 

  • Dividend distributions come from earnings. This may sound like common sense, but it’s worth reiterating. A successful BDC should generate enough quarterly income to pay off its dividend obligations. If it doesn’t, it will have to go to the market for funds and either issue equity or borrow—or deplete cash reserves it would otherwise use to fund future investments. An equity issuance would result in share dilution; debt would increase leverage with no imminent potential to generate gains; and a lower cash reserve is no good either. We prefer stocks that balance their commitments to the shareholders with a long-term growth strategy.
  • The dividends are growing. This is another characteristic of a solid income pick, BDC or otherwise. Ideally, the dividend growth would outpace inflation, in addition to the yield itself being higher than the official CPI numbers. This growth can come from increasing the interest rate spread and also having more loans on the books.
  • Yields should be realistic. We’d be cautious about a BDC that pays more than 12% of its income in dividends. Remember, gains come from the interest it receives from the borrowers. Higher interest indicates higher-risk debt on a BDC’s balance sheet, which should be monitored regularly.
  • Fixed-rate liabilities are preferred. We need our BDC to be able to cover its obligations if interest rates rise. Fixed rates are more predictable than floating rates; we like the more conservative approach.
  • Their betas should be (way) below 1. We don’t want our investment to move together with the broad market or be too interest-rate sensitive. Keeping our betas as low as possible provides additional opportunities to reduce risk, which is a critical part of our strategy.
  • They are diversified across many sectors. A BDC that has 100 tech companies in its portfolio is not as well diversified as a one with 50 firms scattered across a dozen sectors, including aerospace, defense, packaging, pharmaceuticals, and others. Review a company’s SEC filings to see how many baskets its eggs are in.

 

Wrap-up

Right now, BDCs look very interesting to income-seeking investors. They provide excellent yields, diversification opportunities, and access to early-stage companies that previously only institutions enjoyed. They also fit in with Miller Money Forever‘sBulletproof Income strategy, the purpose of which is to provide seniors and savers with real returns, while offering maximum safety and diversification.

Catching a peek our Bulletproof portfolio is risk-free if you try today. Access it now by subscribing to Miller’s Money Forever, with a 90-day money-back guarantee. If you don’t like it, simply return the subscription within those first three months and we’ll refund your payment, no questions asked. And the knowledge you gain in those months will be yours to keep forever.

5 events you cannot ignore

MC horz cropped - 2013… and the one question I will not answer until Saturday.

Let me ask you a question – would you really be surprised if there was another major financial shock in 2014 – maybe coming out of China’s shadow banking system? Or maybe arising from the civil unrest in evidence in so many areas of the world as predicted by Martin Armstrong’s incredibly accurate Cycle of War model.

No one should ignore the currency implosions in the emerging markets. Venezuela devalued its bolivar by 44% last week while the black market price is still 600% lower.  Argentina’s peso dropped 16% in a single day, while Turkey was forced to raise its bank rate by 4.5% to over 12% on Tuesday after the lira’s precipitous fall. 

But the question is – what are these abrupt devaluations telling us. What warning are they giving investors?

And what about the impact of the declining Canadian dollar – down 11% since this time last year with not even a technical bounce so far. Is it too late to move money into the US dollar as Martin Armstrong and Jack Crooks we clearly advising at last year’s World Outlook Conference?

What about the over all weakness in the stock market? January looks like it is about to go negative, which a ton of analysts think is very significant for the market performance for the rest of the year – (The January Effect). Peter Grandich issued a bear signal for only the fourth time in 30 years on January 1. Looks like a great call so far. (Peter was one of only two analysts I know to issue a very clear big sell signal in October, 2007 at the market top.)

I’m not sure what it would take to get most people’s attention but clearly some major events are unfolding. I think that deep down most of us appreciate the utter B.S. of pretending that the escalation of government debt and deficits, the massive central bank intervention and the failure to address the aging population and unfunded liabilities comes without consequences. I think even the least sophisticated among us suspect that at some point government finances have to make sense on both a personal level and a societal level.

While I have consistently stated over the past three years that the market wants to go higher – thank primarily to the easy money policies of the Federal Reserves and other central banks – things have changed. The Fed is now tapering and the implications are already being felt in the emerging market currency devaluations.

If those devaluations are Act 1 – what is Act 2? Is the market weakness in January just the first sign? If so it’s a bit scary. 

This is the context that we are operating in today. So how do you move forward when there is so much uncertainty? How do you manage your risk in this environment? Where do you put your money for safety?

There are no easy answers to these questions but personally I’m incredibly interested in the opinions of some of the best analysts I know like the incomparable Martin Armstrong; Timer’s Digest Timer of the Year, Mark Leibovit; the original Wall Street Whiz Kid, Peter Grandich and Canada’s top independent oil analyst, Josef Schachter. All will be speaking at the World Outlook Conference this Friday night and Saturday. 

They’ll be joined by a host of other top analysts including Keystone Financial’s Ryan Irvine who will be delivering his World Outlook Small Cap portfolio, which in all the years he’s been doing it has always returned more than 20%.

There is a lot more happening at the Conference including some essential personal finance workshops and a big emphasis on opportunities in tech investing. And as an added FREE BONUS this year – your ticket to the Outlook also gets you a free pass to the Opportunities in Private Equities seminars. 

In case you don’t know, private equities were previously only the domain of big pools of capital like pension funds or very wealthy individuals but recent changes have made them available to individuals like us. This will be a great chance to learn more about them – and as I said, it’s a free bonus with your Outlook ticket purchase.

Finally – I know you are busy. I looked at Friday night’s tv schedule – you’d be missing Undercover Boss and Hollywood Game Night but we all have to make sacrifices to secure our financial future. We’ve worked hard to bring some of the best analysts in the business to help you navigate the massive financial changes ahead. January has been chaotic in the financial markets. It has witnessed incredible social unrest. Our models tell us this is just the beginning for 2014.

The One Question I Won’t Answer ‘Til Saturday

I’m getting a ton of questions about who my surprise special interview guest will be on Saturday afternoon at 1:30.  All I will tell you is that it is special and it will be a surprise but I am not saying more than that. You’ll have to attend to find out who it is.

Finally

There are going to be some big losers and some winners in the market – our goal is to put you in the latter group. And the World Outlook Conference track record suggests that we can do it. I hope you make time to join us.

For information go to www.moneytalks.net and click on the “Events” button on the top.

I hope to see you there – please come up and say hi.

Mike

Host of Corus Radio’s MoneyTalks

P.S. LATE BREAKING NEWS

Black Swan Trading’s top currency analyst, Jack Crooks, the man who told last year’s Outlook audience to get out of the loonie and purchase the US dollar, as well as recommending selling the yen short (he closed the trade in May for a 300% profit) – has just agreed to join our Saturday Super Panel live from Florida.

In addition Greg Weldon, the analyst most read by other analysts will join the Super Panel live from New Jersey along with Moneytalk’s Victor Adair and Timer’s Digest Timer of the Year, Mark Leibovit. Our four super stars will be asked just two questions:

1. What will the biggest surprise of 2014 be?

2. What’s your best money making idea?

Dow +126.13 at 15864.98, Nasdaq +80.96 at 4132.39, S&P +22.66 at 1796.86 – 30-Jan-14 15:30 ET
  • Precious metals traded lower today as the dollar index climbed on this morning’s GDP data. According to the advance reading, GDP rose 3.2% in Q4, while the Briefing.com consensus estimate called for a 3.0% increase.
  • Feb gold brushed a session low of $1237.50 per ounce in morning action and traded in a consolidative fashion just above that level for the remainder of the session. Unable to gain momentum, it settled with a 1.6% loss at $1241.90 per ounce.
  • Mar silver dipped to a session low of $18.97 per ounce and eventually settled at $19.13 per ounce, or 2.1% lower. 
  • Mar crude oil, on the other hand, gained strength on the GDP data. The energy component touched a session high of $98.59 per barrel moments before equity markets opened and spent the remainder of the session trading just below that level. It settled with a 1.0% gain at $98.25 per barrel.
  • Mar natural gas erased most of yesterday’s 10% gain as it tumbled on forecasts for milder weather and inventory data. The EIA reported that inventories for the week ending Jan 24 showed a draw of 230 bcf when a draw of 231-236 bcf was anticipated. Priced touched a session high of $5.30 per MMBtu in late morning pit trade but slipped again in afternoon action. Natural gas dipped to a session low of $4.98 per MMBtu moments before settling at $5.02 per MMBtu, or 7.6% lower.

…..read more at the Home page of Briefing.com

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