Currency

The Australian dollar surged almost two percent on Tuesday after the country’s central bank dropped its bias towards easing interest rates and toned down its long-term call for the currency to weaken.

The dollar, yen and euro were all broadly stable, reflecting a drop in the volatility that has accompanied the flood of money out of emerging economies in search of traditional safe havens in the developed world.

The Aussie has fallen by almost a fifth in the past 12 months as a commodities boom expired, growth in China began to slow and the central bank campaigned for a weaker currency to help stir economic growth. – full article HERE

 World shares slumped to a near four-month low after signs that the U.S. economy was stuttering compounded already frayed nerves following a sharp sell-off in emerging markets.  Full Article

  1. Global stock markets are tumbling. While mainstream media personnel discuss a “short and healthy correction”, many value-oriented investors believe that most stock markets are entering a significant bear market.
  2. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I’ve highlighted the 14,5,5 Stochastics series, which I use exclusively on this key quarterly bars chart of the Dow. It’s flashing a gigantic sell signal.
  3. Note the declining volume that has occurred since 2011. For a closer look at that volume, please click here now. This monthly chart shows that since the fall of 2011, the growth of the money supply has not attracted sizable investment into the stock market.
  4. There have been more buyers than sellers, which has pushed the Dow higher, but the total amount of trading volume has declined significantly and consistently.
  5. While the Dow has gotten fundamentally weaker from a liquidity flows standpoint, gold has become fundamentally stronger. Weak-handed ETF investors have left the gold market.
  6. They’ve been replaced with very strong hands, in the Chinese gold jewellery market.
  7. While increasing Western mint coin sales make headlines in the gold community, investors should understand that the total tonnage involved in those sales is tiny, compared to Indian demand that has been stifled by their government.
  8. Unfortunately, many players in the enormous Indian gold market believe their government is quickly turning the gold import business into a dirty protection racket, controlled by the Indian mafia.
  9. Regardless of who wins the upcoming Indian election, it is likely to be followed by new growth in Indian demand.
  10. Late in the fall of 2013, I predicted that the Fed would begin to taper QE, and keep tapering until it was gone. I stunned a lot of investors, by suggesting that this “taper caper” would be bearish for the Dow, andbullish for gold and gold stocks.
  11. During 2014, I expect Dr. Janet Yellen to continue (and possibly accelerate) the tapering process that Dr. Bernanke started, creating more selling in the Dow, and more buying in gold stocks.
  12. Institutional money managers are under tremendous pressure to perform, and they are not performing now.
  13. Gold stocks were the best performing asset during the month of January. Even if the rout of global stock markets subsides, institutions are likely to move some liquidity into the precious metals sector.
  14. Most investors believe Dr. Yellen is a “dove”. I call her a “gold bull shark”. I think her main focus is going to be increasing the low official inflation rate, by increasing the velocity of the money supply.
  15. I don’t think she has much interest in QE or the stock market. I think she’s more of an “old school” central banker who is primarily focused on the inflation rate, gold, and commodity prices…. and rightly so.
  16. A picture speaks a thousand words, so please click here now. I think this picture sums up all you need to know about which market the gold bull shark is focused on.
  17. I’m forecasting global cuts in interest rates this year, with Dr. Yellen spearheading the process. I think she will be remembered as the Fed chief that orchestrated “significant revaluation of the gold price, in the free market”.
  18. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. From the standpoint of technical analysis, this monthly chart of US ten year bond yields supports my fundamental view that Dr. Yellen is going to oversee significantly lower long term interest rates. That should fuel a rise in inflation, and a significant rise in the “POYG”, theprice of your gold!
  19. Note the position of the key indicators and oscillators that I’ve highlighted with red circles on that chart.
  20. For a shorter term look at ten year yields, please click here now. This daily chart suggests that Dr. Yellen will oversee a drop in the ten year bond yield, to the 2% area. That would likely would push gold towards the August highs, in the $1432 area.
  21. For the past couple of weeks, I’ve asked investors to show a bit of patience with the gold markets. Gold is working off a technically overbought situation on the daily chart, and it tends to decline in front of most jobs reports.
  22. Please click here now. This daily gold chart shows gold working to rise above a key downtrend line, with my stokeillator positioned in the 50 area, where strong momentum-based moves can occur.
  23. The next jobs report is scheduled for release this Friday.   There’s a good chance that the entire precious metals sector begins a fresh leg higher, once the drama surrounding that report subsides.
  24. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily GDXJ:gold ratio chart. Considering that gold stocks are technically overbought, they are holding up remarkably well while global stock markets are crashing, and the Fed is tapering. My suggestion is to put the proceeds of all gold stock sales into gold (via ETF, futures or bullion), rather than into fiat currency. If the stock market rout accelerates and Dr. Yellen cuts rates just once, gold could begin a powerful surge to the upside, while global stock markets keep falling!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Natural Gas Blast Off!” report. I’ll show you why I bought natural gas into one of the most horrific declines in the history of major markets, and why I think it’s made a key base and ready to move higher!  

Thanks!

Cheers

St

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates

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Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:  

Are You Prepared?

Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Extends Declines

On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan.27.

Data released over the weekend showed that China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world’s second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.

On top of that, yesterday’s data showed that U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.7 in January (from December’s 55.0). Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.3 in January (a seven-month low), while analysts expected the index to moved down to 56.4. The above data added to recent worries about weakness in emerging markets and fueled concerns over crude oil demand sending crude oil below $97.

Having discussed the above, let’s move on to the technical changes in the crude oil market (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

1 1

In our last Oil Trading Alert, we wrote:

(…) crude oil extended its decline and (…) slipped below the previous high, which is not a positive signal – especially when we take into account the fact that Friday’s drop materialized on relatively large volume. On top of that, the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought and close to generating sell signals. Connecting the dots, it seems that a bigger pullback is just around the corner.

As you see on the above chart, crude oil extended losses and approached the 50-day moving once again. If this strong support encourages buyers to push the order button, we will likely see a corrective upswing in the coming days. However, if it is broken, we will see further deterioration and the next downside target will be the Jan.27 low at $95.21. At this point it’s worth noting that yesterday’s downswing materialized on large volume, which confirms the strength of the sellers. Additionally, the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signal, which supports the latter scenario.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let’s take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).

2 1

Quoting our last Oil Trading Alert:

(…) the CFD formed a bearish engulfing pattern (…) such candlestick formation triggered a strong sell off at the end of December. From this perspective, it seems that if oil bulls do not manage to invalidate this bearish pattern, we may see similar price action in the coming days (…) the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signals, which is another bearish sign (we saw similar situation in previous months and back then it had a negative impact on the price). Please note that the nearest support is the 50-day moving average (currently around $96.37), which corresponds to the Jan.29 low.

Looking at the above chart, we see that WTI Crude Oil extended its decline, dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and reached the 50-day moving average. As you see on the daily chart, this strong support encouraged oil bulls to act and triggered a small (at least at the moment when these words are written) corrective upswing earlier today. Despite this growth, the CFD still remains below the previously-broken 200-day moving average, which serves as resistance. Additionally, sell signals remain in play supporting the bearish case. 

At this point, we should consider two scenarios. On one hand, as long as the CFD remains above the 50-day moving average, further declines are limited and we may see another attempt to move higher (even to the 200-day moving average). On the other hand, we should keep in mind that oil bears have more favorable factors on their side and if the 50-day moving average is broken, we will see a drop to (at least) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the recent rally.

Summing up, the situation has deteriorated as the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated sell signals and crude oil declined (on large volume) to the 50-day moving average. As mentioned earlier, if this strong support encourages oil bulls to act, we will likely see a corrective upswing in the coming day (or days). However, if it is broken, we will see further deterioration and the next downside target will be the Jan.27 low at $95.21. Please note that the current situation in the CFD is similar to what we noticed in the case of light crude, and WTI Crude Oil doesn’t give us any particular clues about future’s moves in crude oil. Nevertheless, in both cases oil bears have more favorable factors on their side and it seems that further deterioration is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: mixed 

Short-term outlook: bullish

MT outlook: bullish

LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, there were no significant changes in crude oil that justify opening short or long positions at the moment. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Forex & Oil Trading Strategist

Forex Trading Alerts

Oil Investment Updates

Oil Trading Alerts

SunshineProfits.com

 

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The “era of getting rich quickly is over” for both stocks and bonds, so investors should lower their expectations about how much they can earn from these investments, said bond specialist Bill Gross on Tuesday. In a Bloomberg TV interview, the founder and chief investment officer of Pimco said he continues to buy Treasurys with short duration, particularly in the range of four to five years, a bet that he says will pay off if the Federal Reserve continues to keep its benchmark interest rates low for the foreseeable future. However, other big money managers have recently begun to bet that the Fed will be pressured to raise rates, putting them on the opposite side of that trade. With turmoil in emerging markets, Gross told Bloomberg TV that developing economies like Brazil and Turkey are starting to look more attractive, but that they are still a “wild card”. As markets continue to be choppy, Pimco clients say they want safety and preservation of principal in their bond investments, Gross said. He added that Mohamed El-Erian, the Pimco CEO who recently announced his departure, could take on a public policy role next. 

 

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