Stocks & Equities
European stock markets stay lower after the German ZEW survey indicates investors are less optimistic about the economic future in the euro zone’s largest economy than they were a month ago.
….full article HERE
In his thoroughly entertaining book The Prime Movers, Edwin A. Locke gives this example of the way entrepreneurs think:
An average person observes evergreens growing along the roadside and thinks that they look pretty, especially when partly covered with snow. At this point, his thinking stops. An entrepreneur observes the same trees and thinks, “These trees would look good in people’s living rooms at Christmas. I wonder what people would pay for them?
And he would continue to ask such questions as:
- How hard is it to grow evergreens?
- What investment is required?
- How big should they be before being cut?
- How difficult would it be to cut and transport them?
- How much would it cost?
- How long would they keep before losing their needles?
- Where would they be sold?
- What would the competition be like?
- Could I make other, related products – e.g., wreaths?
- Can I make money in such a seasonal business?
- How much?
- How can I get started?
This kind of active, directed thinking is one of the things that separate entrepreneurs from the rest of humanity. In fact, the most successful entrepreneurs in history – all of them mega-billionaires by today’s standards – seemed to have dynamic, pragmatic minds.
Locke gives plenty of examples, including these:
Thomas Edison: He was a “virtual thinking machine. Almost until the day he died, his mind poured forth a torrent of ideas, and he might track as many as 60 experiments at a time in his laboratory.”
Steve Jobs: He bombarded people with his ideas – his investors, his board of directors, his customers, his subordinates, and his CEO John Scully.
Henry Ford: “He threw himself into every detail, insisting on getting small things absolutely right…. But he never lost sight of the ultimate, overall objection. He had a vision of what his new car (the Model T) should look like. From all the improvisation, hard thought, and hard work came a machine that was at once the simplest and the most sophisticated automobile built to date anywhere in the world.”
You may be thinking, “Hey, I’m no Thomas Edison or Steve Jobs or Henry Ford.” Well, neither am I. And I could rattle off a dozen multi-millionaire entrepreneurs I know who don’t have that kind of brain capacity either.
Raw intelligence is not the issue. If it were, Einstein would have been wealthy. What matters in the world of commerce is how you think.
Some people, whether because of their upbringing or their DNA, have a natural billionaire mind. But just about anyone who is smart and ambitious can learn to think like a billionaire.
You can transform your mind completely and permanently in a matter of a few short months by making small changes, one at a time. It will take some effort, though. As Joshua Reynolds once said, “There is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the real labor of thinking.”
Begin by vowing to talk to every successful person you know or meet. Tell them how much you admire what they have accomplished and ask them how they do what they do.
You may be amazed at how open they will be to such inquiries. Nine times out of 10, they’ll be eager to tell you just about everything they know.
Unfortunately, many of the twentieth century’s greatest entrepreneurs have been disparaged by historians and the media. As Locke points out in The Prime Movers, if you mention the names Andrew Carnegie or John Rockefeller or Cornelius Vanderbilt to most people, they think “greedy robber barons who took advantage of their circumstances.” They know nothing about their accomplishments. What they know, for the most part, is based on persistent myths that prevent them from learning from these men and prospering.
Locke says:
“It is often claimed that the Prime Movers have been viewed with suspicion at best and with distaste or repugnance at worst…. The most basic motive [of those who envy them] is… hatred of the good for being good… it is hatred of the Prime Movers because they are intelligent, successful, and competent, because they are better at what they do than others are.
“The ultimate goal of the haters of the good is not to bring others up to the level of the most able (which is impossible) but to bring down the able to the level of the less able – to obliterate their achievement, to destroy their reward, to make them unable to function above the level of mediocrity, to punish them, and, above all, to make them feel unearned guilt for their own virtues.”
When you become super-successful, you’ll have to learn how to handle the people who are going to resent you for achieving what they themselves have been unable to do. But first, you have to get yourself into that enviable position. And you do that by practicing the thinking of the great entrepreneurs who thought like billionaires and so amassed billions.
I’ll be writing more on this subject in the future. But for right now, here are eight characteristics of the billionaire mind that you can emulate:
1. A “normal” person is concerned with protecting his ego. When dealing with a problem he doesn’t really understand, he pretends he understands the contributing factors and doesn’t try to find out what anyone else thinks. A person with a billionaire mind asks questions incessantly. He has no ego when it comes to learning. He knows that knowledge is power.
2. A “normal” person has a consumer mentality. He looks at a hot new product and thinks about how he would like to own one. A person with a billionaire mind has an entrepreneurial mentality. He looks at it and thinks, “How can I produce this or something similar in my own industry?”
3. A “normal” person is wish-focused. He daydreams about making gobs of money. A person with a billionaire mind is reality-based. He is always analyzing his own success and the success of others and wondering how he could learn from it.
4. A “normal” person, when confronted with a challenging idea, thinks of all the reasons why it might not work. A person with a billionaire mind sees the potential in it and disregards the problems until he has a clear vision of how it might succeed.
5. A “normal” person resists change. A person with a billionaire mind embraces it.
6. A “normal” person accepts the status quo. A person with a billionaire mind is always looking to make things – even good things – better.
7. A “normal” person reacts. A person with a billionaire mind is proactive.
8. A “normal” person looks at a successful business owner and thinks, “That guy’s lucky.” Or “That guy’s a shyster.” A person with a billionaire mind thinks, “What’s his secret?” And, “How can I do that?”
Start by being humble and asking questions. Do this until it becomes a habit. Then take on another characteristic of the billionaire mind – like looking at a successful new product and thinking, “How can I do something like that?”
Go through the list, mastering one characteristic at a time, and within three months you will be able to create new businesses almost automatically. You will become a natural leader. Money will flow to you like water coming down a hill. And then you’ll be ready to deal with all the “normal” people who are jealous of your incredible success.
What’s the first change in your thinking that you’re going to make?
Top Stories
Actavis nears acquisition of Forest Labs for up to $25B – WSJ. Actavis (ACT) is in advanced negotiations to buy fellow pharmaceuticals provider Forest Laboratories (FRX) for up to $25B, the WSJ reports, adding that the deal could be announced today. The figure is above Forest’s market cap of $19.3B. One reason for the tie-up is to allow the companies to better negotiate with customers amid consolidation between hospitals, insurers and doctors. Forest’s shares were +2.3% premarket.
Nikkei surges after BOJ boosts loan facilities. The Bank of Japan has surprised markets by expanding lending facilities that are designed to spur corporate investment by offering low-interest loans to commercial banks in the hope that they will lend the money to businesses. At a policy meeting, the BOJ also maintained its program of increasing the monetary base by ¥60-70T a year. The boosting of the lending facilities comes after data yesterday showed that Q4 GDP growth slowed to a less-than-expected 0.3% on quarter from 0.5% in Q3. The move helped weaken the yen and cause the Nikkei to surge 3.3%.
H-P knew of Autonomy methods long before writedown – FT. Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) senior management was aware of Autonomy’s controversial hardware sales practices months prior to a whistleblower flagging them, the FT reports. If true, the report could undermine HP’s claims that Autonomy officials hid the information. The whistleblower’s actions helped prompt H-P to sharply write down the $11.1B acquisition.
Top Stock News
BHP earnings surge 31%. BHP Billiton’s (BHP) underlying FH1 profit jumped 31% to $7.76B and exceeded consensus of $6.9B, helped by a rise in the company’s earnings from its iron-ore operations, cost cuts and the improving global economy. Revenue increased 5.9% to $33.9B. BHP declared a dividend of $0.59 for the period and said that its strong cash flow could enable it to consider a substantial dividend increase in the future. Shares were +2.25% premarket.
Airline misery continues as snow storms pound on. Airlines have cancelled over 500 flights for today as the freezing weather continues relentlessly. The latest storm has dumped snow on the Midwest and is expected to be similarly beneficent to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. The latest cancellations add to 1,379 flights that were scrubbed for the President’s Day holiday yesterday and over 4,440 that were delayed. More than 7,500 flights were scrapped on February 13.
Healthcare services firm MultiPlan sold for reported $4.4B. Private-equity firms BC Partners and Silver Lake have agreed to sell MultiPlan, a provider of services that help big health insurers manage the claims process, to a consortium comprising Starr Investment and Swiss firm Partners Group. The financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed, although reports said the price was $4.4B. Starr is an affiliate of C.V. Starr, which is part of an insurance and investment group led by former AIG (AIG) chief Maurice “Hank” Greenberg.
News Corp wins $800M back from Australian tax man. News Corp (NWSA) has received a rebate of A$882M ($796.62M) from Australia’s tax authorities after it won a legal battle over A$2B in forex losses that it suffered during a restructuring in 1989. The Australian Tax Office had refused to allow the deduction but was defeated in the country’s Federal Court in July. The payment has only just come to light, although News Corp received the money at the end of last year.
AngloGold Ashanti replaces chairman. AngloGold Ashanti (AU) Chairman Tito Mboweni has stepped down, due to his “increasing portfolio of professional commitments,” and is being replaced by nonexecutive director Sipho Pityana. Mboweni, who is a member of the African National Congress’ National Executive Committee, will leave AngloGold Ashanti as nonexecutive director at the company’s annual shareholders meeting in May.
Top Economic & Other News
German investor confidence falls sharply. The German ZEW survey of investor confidence has dropped to 55.7 in February from 61.7 in January and missed consensus that was also 61.7. However, the current situation print has surged to 50 from 41.2. The decline in the headline figure was probably caused by recent uncertainties, such as weak U.S. labor and other economic data, and the volatility in emerging markets, ZEW says, adding that the fall “must not be overstated.”
U.K. CPI falls below BOE goal. U.K. inflation has fallen below the Bank of England’s target of 2% for the first time since November 2009, dropping to 1.9% on year in January from 2% in December and undershooting consensus that was also 2%. The data comes after BOE Governor Mark Carney said last week that with spare capacity in the economy high and inflation benign, the bank has scope to maintain interest rates at a record-low of 0.5% for a while yet.
PBOC drains $7.9B from financial system. The People’s Bank of China has drained $7.9B from the country’s financial system by selling 48B yuan in repurchase contracts, the first such transaction since June. The PBOC made the tightening move after weekend data showed that aggregate financing soared to a record 2.58T yuan ($425B) in January from 1.23T yuan in December despite the bank’s attempts to rein in lending.
Italian President asks Matteo Renzi to become PM. Florence Mayor Matteo Renzi, the head of Italy’s center-left Democratic Party (PD), was due to start talks with the leaders of other parliamentary groups today after he was yesterday asked by President Giorgio Napolitano to try to form a government. Renzi’s nomination comes after the PD ousted incumbent PM Enrico Letta last week following Renzi’s machinations.
Top Ideas: Movers and Great Calls
1) On December 16, Stephen Simpson, CFA, argued that copper miner First Quantum Minerals (OTCPK:FQVLF) was trading at an “appealing price,” as growing production and declining costs underpinned the bull case. Shares are +19.3% since. Read article »
2) In April, fund manager Thomas Finser predicted a sharp turnaround for laser-vision correction specialist LCA-Vision (LCAV). After a buyout offer on Thursday, the stock may have more room to run, as it trades above the offer price and is +61.9% since Finser’s call. Read article »
Top Ideas To Watch
1) High-end mattress retailer Select Comfort (SCSS) has 70% upside ahead, as a new product and marketing campaign should drive a rebound, writes Shaun Currie, CFA. Read article »
2) Helix Investment Research says investors should look to SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY), not Yahoo, for exposure to Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, and in the process receive a company undervalued based on its other equity stakes and core earnings.Read article »
Top Idea articles are the best long and short ideas on Seeking Alpha. SA PRO subscribers receive early access to these Top Idea articles, which often move markets. For more information about SA PRO and becoming a subscriber, click here.
“It’s not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets,” Marc Faber warns in thie brief clip. “Emerging economies have practically no growth and we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than strategists are willing to believe,” he adds and this is “causing a vicious circle to the downside” in inflated asset markets as most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging markets. Faber suggestsTreasuries as a safe haven in the short-term; but is nervous of their value in the long-term as “debt is becoming burdensome on the system.”
“A lot of economic growth was driven by soaring asset prices”
“For the next three to six months probably they are a better place to be than equities,”
“I don’t like [10-year Treasurys] for the long-termbecause the maximum you can earn is something like 2.65 percent per annum for the next 10 years, but Treasurys are expected to rally because of economic weakness and a stock market decline. In the last few years at least there was a flight into quality – that is, a flight into Treasurys.”
On China and shadow banking defaults:
“China can handle it by printing money but it will again have unintended negative consequences… but the
problem is real… but it’s not just in China…”
Faber warned of the risks of the present global credit bubble and said another slowdown could follow on the back of rising consumer debt levels – which had previously helped to create growth.
“Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
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“With mayonnaise, cookies, and coffee leading the way”
US Products Lead the Way; Currency Devaluations Hit P&G Earnings.
Prices of many goods in Argentina soared in the past two weeks. US brands are at the forefront of the action. Via translation from Lanacion, In two weeks, Warehouse Prices Rose 30%, with mayonnaise, cookies, and coffee leading the way. Officially, prices are up 3.3%. In reality, prices are up 30%.
According to official data, the price of food and beverages was up 3.3%. A tour of various supermarkets in the city of Buenos Aires, found escalating inflation is much higher in stock products, perfumery and milk.
Here are some price increases from the article. Please use relative price increases. They use the $ symbol for pesos.
- Hellmann’s mayonnaise in late January was on the shelves at $10.40 is now $13.55.
- A can of peaches last month cost about $20 and yesterday were above $26.
- Coffee 500g [about 1.1 pounds] rose 16% from $33.69 to $38.99.
- Express cookies went from $15.39 to $20.39.
- Hamburger buns increased from $13.06 to $14.19.
- Sancor yogurt went from $15.25 to $ 17.99
- La Serenissima Long life milk went from $10.7 to $11.59.
- Shampoo went from $15.77 to $19.
- Colgate Triple Action toothpaste 180 grams [6.3 ounces], went from $15.70 to $19.96.
- Two-liter bottles of water rose from $8.25 to $9.43
Currency Devaluations Hit P&G Earnings
Inquiring minds may be wondering how this affects earnings of US multinational corporations.
Forbes explains Venezuela, Argentina Currency Devaluations Hit P&G Expected Sales And Earnings.
Retail investors aren’t the only ones suffering from the woes of the emerging markets: Procter & Gamble PG +2.06% is feeling the pain of foreign currencies, too. Due to devaluations in currencies like the Venezuelan bolivar, Argentine peso and Turkish lira, to name a few, the consumer product giant said that it is lowering its outlook for its full-year 2014 sales and earnings.
P&G, which in January announced second quarter earnings results that were already feeling the ill effects of foreign exchange rates, said Tuesday afternoon that it would incur a charge between $230 million and $280 million, or 8 cents to 10 cents per share, a one-time charge resulting from revaluing its Venezuelan balance sheet in the wake of a change in the way the Venezuelan bolivar is valuated. Venezuela uses a de-facto dual-exchange rate system, but policy changes recently enacted by the Venezuelan government are affecting the way that certain imports — i.e, certain P&G products — are exchanged.
Specifically, the policy changes dictate that the state-run currency rate between the bolivare and the dollar is now 11.4 bolivares per one U.S. dollar; P&G, meanwhile, had calculated the value of its foreign transactions using the other, 6.3-bolivare-per-USD rate, thus the near-$300 million charge P&G now expects to incur on its third quarter balance sheet.
In reevaluating its outlook, P&G also took into consideration the recent devaluation of the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, South African rand, Russian ruble, Ukrainian hryvnia and Brazilian real. Of the group, the Argentine peso has proven the biggest problem, declining 20% to 8 pesos per dollar.
All told, P&G’s full-year sales growth forecast is 2%, down from a prior range of 3% to 4% for fiscal year 2014. The company also lowered its earnings-per-share growth forecast to 3% to 5%, down from prior guidance of 5% to 7% growth.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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