Stocks & Equities

What This Stock Bull Needs to Live a 6th year

S&P 500 rebound from March 2009 lows joins small club of five-year-plus surges

U.S. stocks enter their sixth year of a bull market this Monday, joining a rare group of multi-year stock surges that can support early retirements, pay off college debt, and make pension funds whole.

Or not. The fifth year of the last bull market ended spectacularly and painfully for investors in October 2007, leaving many so scarred they avoided stocks years into this latest rebound.

The good news: The few cycles that make it past their fifth birthday keep motoring along, churning out as much as a decade of gains. Momentum is your friend: On average, the sixth year has produced 26% growth.

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The bad: There’s plenty that’s different this time around, starting with…full article HERE

 

 

Gold fails to rally Time to fade the market?

Screen Shot 2014-03-06 at 7.59.52 AMBriefly: In our opinion short speculative positions (half) in silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are closing half of the long-term investment position in gold.

As you know, we had been expecting the tensions in Ukraine to cause a significant rally in gold (not necessarily in the rest of the precious metals sector). Not only wasn’t that the case on Monday – the rally indeed took place, but it was rather average, but gold managed to decline on Tuesday while there was no visible improvement in the situation in Ukraine and on the Crimea peninsula.

Gold is not performing as strongly as it should. That is a major bearish factor. Let’s examine the situation more closely (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

(Click on Chart for larger image)

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The move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was invalidated yesterday. The move lower took place on low volume, which doesn’t confirm the rally. However, that’s not the most important thing to focus on – gold’s performance in light of the most recent events is. As mentioned earlier, it didn’t rally. In fact it’s more or less where it was a week ago. The implications are bearish.

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From the gold to bonds perspective, the downtrend simply remains in place. There has been no breakout above the declining resistance line (marked in red), so the precious metals market is still likely to decline once again.

(Click on chart for larger image)

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Silver’s performance has been weak, if not very weak. Not only did it not really rally on Monday, but it declined more on Tuesday than it had rallied on Monday and it’s now 0.42% lower than it was last week. 

Some might say that the white metal is almost flat, and that is correct, but the point is that it’s almost flat (on the south side of being flat) when the geopolitical tensions are rising significantly. This is a significant underperformance relative to what’s going on in the world.

What we wrote yesterday remains up-to-date:

Meanwhile, silver invalidated the breakout above the 50-week moving average, the 2008 high and the 61.8% retracement level based on the entire bull market. The weekly volume is highest in months, which confirms the significance of the invalidation. Actually, the last time we saw volume that was similar was at the beginning of the previous decline in mid-2013.

Silver is still above the declining red support line, but drawing an analogous line in mid-2013 would also have given us a breakout that turned out to be a fake one.

The situation in silver was bearish based on Friday’s closing prices and it has further deteriorated based on the lack of rally this week despite reasons to make a move higher.

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Not too long ago we wrote that the juniors to stocks ratio could indicate local tops in the precious metals market if one looked at it correctly. The things that we were focusing on were spikes in volume (we have seen a major one) and sell signals from the ROC indicator (a decline after being above the 10 level) and the Stochastic indicator. We have seen both recently. Consequently, it seems that the precious metals market will move lower sooner rather than later.

The USD Index moved a bit higher and mining stocks declined, both of which confirm the above bearish indications.

All in all, it doesn’t seem that keeping the full long position in the investment category is justified at this point in our view. Based on this weekend’s events it was likely that gold would move much higher – but its reaction has been very weak. It looks like there will be no rally in gold before a bigger decline. We are keeping half of the funds in gold, though, just in case the next days bring improvement. If not – things will become even more bearish and we will likely adjust the position once again.

We might suggest changing the short-term speculative position and / or the long-term investment one shortly, based on how the markets react and what happens in Ukraine.

To summarize: Trading capital (our opinion): Short position (half): silver and mining stocks.

Stop-loss details:

 

  • Silver: $22.60
  • GDX ETF: $28.9

 

Long-term capital (our opinion): Half position in gold, no positions in silver, platinum and mining stocks.

Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position

You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

A Crisis Metal Hits Its Flashpoint

Going back to 2010, I’ve been predicting we could see a significant crisis in one particular metal.

UnknownPlatinum.

This week, it looks as if that situation has arrived. With reports suggesting that continuing mine strikes in South Africa have pushed this market perilously close to big supply issues.

As I write, striking platinum miners are marching on government buildings in Pretoria. Demanding higher wages, as part of a labor action that has now seen mines idled for six weeks.

That’s prompted some of the world’s largest platinum suppliers to suggest that supply disruptions could be coming.

Last week, officials from the world’s second-largest platinum producer Impala said that the company’s above-ground platinum stocks are nearly depleted. The firm said it will be able to guarantee shipments to overseas customers only until the end of March. Then all bets are off.

We’re not far from that deadline. And with no solution to the mineworkers’ strike in sight, there’s a growing possibility of a force majeure on global platinum shipments.

If it does materialize, this could be one of the most significant events in natural resources for some time. According to figures released this week by the U.S. Geological Survey, South Africa produced 73% of global primary platinum supply in 2013. There are simply few other markets where world production is so concentrated in the hands of one nation.

The situation is especially dire considering who produces the rest of the world’s platinum. A full 19% of global mine output comes from Russia and Zimbabwe–meaning that 92% of supply comes from just three places on Earth.

None of these nations are currently looking like great places to grow production. In fact, output from all of them except South Africa has been largely flat the last few years.

Today’s labor unrest thus has the very real potential to up-end the platinum market. If it does, it will be a payday not only for investors in physical platinum–but also in the scarce platinum greenfields projects being developed in more-stable nations like Canada and Australia.

Here’s to big moments,

Dave Forest

dforest@piercepoints.com / @piercepoints / Facebook

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Another Big Move Upcoming in Mining Shares

Now that the first leg off the bear market bottom has been completed the mining shares have been consolidating for the last three weeks in preparation for another leg up, and I expect the second leg will be almost as powerful as the first.

As gold is now late in its daily cycle I’m looking for one more dip down into Friday’s employment report to complete the short-term correction. Then I look for gold’s third daily cycle to test the $1425 resistance zone over the next month.
 
gold daily cycle low
 
….3 more Charts & Commentary HERE

This Oil Stock Yields 10.5%… But I Doubt You’ve Ever Heard Of It

This Oil Stock pays an 10.5% dividend yield. The Norwegian based Stock this analyst has found an Its actually a one of the largest offshore drillers in the world, with an enterprise value of more than $33 billion, so its obviously a well established company as opposed to a high risk Junior. The good news is it trades on the NYSE. While The Gulf oil spill of 2010 delivered a crushing blow to the offshore drilling industry, the author believes offshore drilling industry is on the cusp of a renaissance which opens up the possiblility of capital appreciaion on top of that attractive yield – Money Talks

This Oil Stock Yields 10.5%… But I Doubt You’ve Ever Heard Of It

They’re some of the most reliable dividend-paying stocks on earth.

Each controls a large stake in one of the most universal and depended-on forms of energy in the world, practically guaranteeing it will receive uninterrupted revenue for years to come.

Of course, I’m talking about oil stocks. Their stable demand and reliable dividend payments make oil stocks an undoubted favorite among income investors.

Yet despite being wildly popular in the income universe, most people are missing out on the world’s best opportunities in this sector…

That’s because despite being oil stock, investors think the stocks I’m about to tell you about carry too much risk. They’ve never heard of most of these companies, so they automatically dismiss them as speculative growth plays.

Nothing could be farther from the truth. 

Let me explain…

Many investors seeking a reliable income stream have been flocking to big oil stocks that have paid healthy dividends over the past few years. 

That’s to be expected. The steady income offered by some of these companies easily bests the typical S&P 500 stock. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) for example, pays a 3.6% dividend yield right now — almost double the 1.9% yield offered by the average stock in the S&P 500.

One of the most popular oil stocks around is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). Next to only Apple, Exxon is the most profitable company in the United States, bringing in an incredible $32.6 billion in profit in 2013. That’s roughly as much profit as behemoths Wal-Mart and J.P. Morgan Chase brought in combined last year.

Yet despite how much profit the company makes, Exxon Mobil’s stock still pays a dividend yield of just 2.6%

While I wouldn’t sneeze at a 2.6% yield or even a 3.6% yield, it’s only a fraction of what you can receive from this industry.

In fact, I’ve found an oil stock that pays an 10.5% dividend yield right now. And better yet, unlike traditional oil stocks, it also offers investors the chance to see potentially incredible capital appreciation.

What’s the catch? There isn’t one. It just so happens that this company doesn’t do business in the U.S. But you can buy shares without even leaving the U.S. stock exchanges. 

The stock I’m talking about is SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL) — one of the largest offshore drillers in the world, with an enterprise value of more than $33 billion and diversification across the shallow, mid and deepwater segments of the market. (Weekly Chart below)

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The Norway-based company also has one of the industry’s most modern fleets, best margin profiles and pays a dividend that is roughly three times the yield of the 10-year Treasury note.

When most investors think of large oil stocks, they don’t think about growth. But that’s not the case for SeaDrill.

The Gulf oil spill of 2010 delivered a crushing blow to the offshore drilling industry. With domestic regulators restricting new drilling permits, shares of offshore drillers with and without exposure to the Gulf of Mexico fell sharply.

But now, more than three years later, the offshore drilling industry is on the cusp of a renaissance.

On the heels of new off-shore discoveries, growing global energy demand and the depletion of land wells, the offshore drilling industry is set to grow to $121 billion in 2018 from $73 billion in 2013. That’s a compound annual growth rate of more than 10% in the next five years.

That places the offshore drilling industry in position to deliver big returns — and SeaDrill is primed to take advantage.

The company currently has 21 rigs on order or under construction due for delivery through the end of 2016. With a current fleet count of 69, the new rigs will increase its rig count by 30% in the next three years.

The new rig releases will help drive revenue growth in what is already shaping up to be a strong 2014 for the company. In recent third-quarter results SeaDrill announced it had entered an agreement with PEMEX, the Mexican state-owned petroleum company, to provide five jackup rigs for six years starting in the first half of 2014.

The deal is expected to produce more than $1.8 billion in revenue and provides entry into the Mexican offshore market that should grow substantially in the next few years. 

More importantly, it also increases the company’s backlog of contracted rig services to more than $18 billion and enhances long-term revenue and earnings visibility, with 90% of its fleet booked for 2014 and 60% already booked for 2015.

Strong revenue and earnings growth will support SeaDrill’s two key goals: finance new rig builds and increase dividend payments.

SeaDrill also remains committed to delivering robust dividend payments to shareholders. It paid out $1.4 billion in dividends in 2011, $2.1 billion in 2012 and $930 million in the past two quarters.

It also doesn’t hurt that the company increased its dividend by 8% last year, or that it’s raised its dividend 7% annually for the past five years.

And after its most recent quarterly dividend increase to $0.95 per share, SeaDrill offers a dividend yield of 10.5% at recent prices, or more than three times the return of the 10-year Treasury note’s yield of 2.7%.

Of course with investing, no stock is guaranteed to make you money… even an oil stock. 

But stocks like SeaDrill prove that some of the world’s best high-yield securities aren’t located in the United States. In fact, out of the 118 companies we found paying yields over 12%, only 25 of them are located in the U.S. The other 93 of the world’s highest-yielding stocks are international companies.

Fortunately, many of these are traded publicly on the New York Stock Exchange. To learn more about investing in high-quality international dividend payers and to see a detailed list of stocks paying 12%-plus yields, simply follow this link.

Good investing, 

Michael Vodicka
Chief Investment Strategist
High-Yield International

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