Currency

Currency War, Part 15 – Europe

UnknownFor the past couple of years the European Central Bank has been the only sane inmate in the asylum. Unfortunately, in a crazy world being sane just gets you into trouble. Sound monetary policy leads to a strong currency, which in a currency war is tantamount to unilateral disarmament. Unable to export sufficiently to a world of weak currencies, the eurozone is tipping into deflationary depression (with several members already there and unable to get out). So…

….continue reading about Draghi’s plan HERE

Banker Liars – New Currency – Fatal Errors – Psycho War

A global clash of nations is underway in full gear. The storm is picking up speed, power, intensity, and damaging force. Many are the swirls of the current situation. A hodgepodge of topics have been caught and trapped, best to discharge on paper, the effect like a wondrous enema. The banker lies grow thicker, as they are unable to so easily deceive anymore. The potential currency fix appears more imminent, as the solution seen as an assault on American interests (military angle). Any nation getting off the US Wagon Train is a rogue nation, the theme having become tired and ineffective. The fatal errors committed by the US economists and banker elite have finally resulted in clear signs of systemic failure. The psychological warfare is like a gigantic fog, as people’s defenses are being challenged, even those based in fantasy and convenience. The world is undergoing change, the nightmare continues, while the Paradigm Shift moves into the fast lane by expedience. Entire swaths of wealth are being waterlogged, tainted, and ruined. The USDollar has been stuck in the corner for three years, finally pushed into the corner crack, sure to fall below the matt, where below lies a spittoon. The Hat Trick Letter informs and warns the public, converts the disheartened and confused among us, edifies clients, and provides forecasts like signposts to guide in the increasing fascist darkness. At the same time, it seems to drive families crazy, since when attempting to admonish and caution, the efforts are often seen as uncomfortable overturning of the temple tables (business and mental). So be it. Forewarned is forearmed, but many prefer their delusions and homes built upon false assumptions. The Jackass prefers reality accountable to the flow of events and verified facts, where actions can be taken in defense of livelihood and even life savings. The clash of worlds must be reported and properly understood.

CENTRAL BANKER LIARS

Newly appointed USFed Chair Janet Yellen has wasted no time in her stream of lies. The crime syndicate headquarters talks of  tapering the bond monetization volume. As preface, be sure to know that unsterilized bond purchases, introduction of newly printed money without drainage in similar volume steps, has been considered the ultimate heretical practice for decades by the Economist Schools. It is called the greatest monetary sin, but now is blessed as a solution, perhaps no longer temporary. The Yellen Fed talks repeatedly about poor economic conditions, about weak bank structures, about punky labor markets, but also about improving something or other, while it speaks lies in great strokes. The financial circles applaud, while the business community languishes. They talk of reductions in the QE volumes, but they use back doors and proxies, hardly out of view. Yellen moved to the U6 jobless rate index, shoving the deceptive Clinton U3 jobless rate in the toilet. The USFed now has employed the Belgian bank as the new Caribbean offshore site. Its USTreasury Bond holdings are moving toward the $200 billion level. Recall this little turd on the economic table has no surplus and barely has an economy at all outside the finance sector. It operates as a parliament center and commission home office for pedafiles. The other deceptive tools used by the Yellen Fed are the same as those used by the Bernanke Fed, the powerful interest rate swap derivative. It produces leveraged phony demand without buyers, thus creates bond rallies out of thin air. Several banker murders were done to conceal the London Whale losses, estimated over $100 billion in the derivatives market. The story remains suppressed.

The Weimar machinery is working overtime and 24/7 to cover the USTBonds that no nation wants, except for Belgium and Japan, which was almost overlooked. The Asian lackey continues to buy USTBonds out of duty, under Yakuza threat (from Langley masters), in order to prevent an unwanted rise in the Japanese Yen exchange rate. They have lost their trade surplus during the industrial rise of China. Maintaining the Yen currency suppression via USTBond purchase will have to go the monetization route, a destructive path that worries many competent responsible financial firms in Tokyo. So the Yellen Fed is a liar institution, just like the Bernanke Fed. Do not expect Benjamin to be knighted, since he was just a store clerk to inaugurate QE bond purchases, a mere caretaker like President Gerald Ford. Poor Benjamin is busy collecting $200k speaker fees, where his message actually contradicts the policy he directed at the USFed itself for six years.

NEW GOLD-BACKED CURRENCIES

The time is finally right. The urgency is acute. The banking system insolvency is widespread. The illiquidity has reached the surface. The geopolitical chessboard has busy movements of many pieces, even with a delayed check in Ukraine after a devious capture of the Cyprus castle but not the Syrian knight. The Saudi support via OPEC for the Petro-Dollar has fallen out of view, dragging its pummeled chin on the desert sands. The Eastern superpowers are marching arm in arm, ready to challenge the West. It seems the Western leaders, in particular the robot sock puppets of the Untied States, see the end of the USDollar. They appear to wish to lay blame on Russia for the death of the dollar. The global rejection is well along, which began with the introduction of QE, then QE2, then Operation Twist. But the global rejection took flight after Taper Talk failed in its trial balloon, and achieved supersonic speed with the recognition of QE to Infinity was implicitly endorsed. The global rejection saw the prototype built in the hangar with the Iran sanction workarounds, where India bought Iran’s oil & gas, but paid with Turkish gold, delivered to Tehran banks. The global rejection will achieve escape velocity with the acceptance of Russian Rubles for its energy products. The global rejection will achieve additional escape velocity with the acceptance of Chinese Yuan payments for Saudi crude oil (then all OPEC oil). 

Coming is the launch of both the gold-backed Russian Ruble and the gold-backed Chinese Yuan. The global rejection will be final, and the funeral will be announced. They will enter the financial airspace first, followed by others. When the USMilitary defense of the USDollar is recognized as blatant, dishonorable, toothless, and ineffective, the other gold-backed currencies will follow. The isolated paper tiger was revealed in Syria. The toothless rampaging tiger will be revealed in Ukraine. The Kiev Govt is almost ready to collapse already. The Jackass originally expected the collapse to occur in six to nine months, but it looks more like three to four months.

The Russians and Chinese might put the first daggers in the USDollar heart, but numerous death blows will come from other parties. The water will be judged safe to enter. Expect the Saudis and fellow Arabs to launch a gold-backed Dinar currency. Expect the Germans and fellow Europeans (not from the Catholic South where socialism, absent industry, and slack work ethics prevail) to launch a gold-backed Nordic Euro. Expect the Latin Americans to rally behind Panama, the new Switzerland of the Americas. Several nations are reported onboard the launch of the gold-backed Panama Balboa. It will be supported by gold and copper, possibly crude oil. It will be the resource currency of the bunch. Watch closely Norway, which might launch a gold-backed Norwegian Krone, supported indirectly by crude oil. They can easily convert oil to gold, since crude is black gold. Watch certain groups of resource-rich African nations. They are extremely large in land mass and they are loaded with resources (energy) and minerals (metals). They could launch a few gold-backed currencies and declare independence from Western colonialists.

The USDollar might split soon, from external pressures and internal pressures. Foreign nations will no longer permit the QE bond monetization and currency debasement. The old version could remain but as the International Dollar, which will retain value. The new version might split in launch as the Scheiss Dollar, which will be deeply devaluated in steps. The Scheiss Dollar is the US ticket to the Third World, complete with imported price inflation, diverse product supply shortage, and widespread violence like at supermarkets for food, service stations for gasoline & diesel, and ATM machines for cash. The USDollar will not continue in its present form. Its central bank responsibility will split also, with China taking more control of the Intl Dollar, and the USDept Treasury taking control of the Scheiss Dollar launch and ensuing decisions. See their JPMorgan HQ acquisition as hint for critical changes. The Untied States Govt has a horrible task of financing its debt, which strongly resembles Third World type. It cannot without hyper monetary inflation, a temporary stopgap.

FATAL ECONOMIC POLICY ERRORS

The fatal errors in US banking and economic policy could fill a book. It might be a future Jackass publication. Hats off to Gonzalo Lira for his book “A Secret History of the American Crash” which is a docu-drama work in the year 2020 set in Los Angeles. It provides a real life look on the streets and offices at where the broken Untied States is heading, based upon systemic failure, economic ruin, and society impact. The economic errors have been enormous, steady, and unending. One must wonder if sabotage has been the higher order directive. The US nation used to be admired, well run at the corporate level, expert at the finance ministry, competent at the central bank. But so much went wrong. The Jackass has chronicled much of the erroneous pathways and the fatal national errors that have led to systemic failure, national insolvency, and ultimately debt default. It is a broken nation which has succumbed to a hidden fascist attack with full plunder. The Fascist Business Model is not properly recognized either, despite its integral role. The Jackass has harped on the concept for other eight years on a regular and frequent basis, pointing out the merger of state with big corporations (led by banks), pointing out the permitted financial fraud and banker welfare, even General Motors welfare, pointing out the economic effect, pointing out the war levers used to guarantee supply, and pointing out the systemic failure it has caused. Not 10% of Americans comprehend what fascism is, but 30% of the nation would qualify easily to serve as Nazi Youth Group leaders, possibly without realization of the group functions. Witness the honor guards and flag ceremonies at sporting events, including an occasional fighter jet flyover. This is not healthy, but rather a slippery path to a dark place. The bigger question is whether the US nation will recognize the Third World when it approaches with all its nasty trappings.

The fatal errors are many. They cannot be fully detailed. The seminal original sin was breaking off the Gold Standard by Nixon. In my book, the move was probably the second half of the arrangement to have Kennedy removed, followed by a clever deft move to install Kissinger. He created the Petro-Dollar mechanisms, by pushing for a quadruple in the crude oil price, then instituting the Petro Surplus Recycle plan, having the Saudis run OPEC, forcing nations to accumulate USTreasurys in their banking system. The Petro-Dollar defacto standard replaced the formal Gold Standard. The kicker benefit was that Arab nations and Iran were able to fill their coffers, buy fancy yachts, build casinos in the desert, erect oversized palaces to stroke their egos, arrange $million allowances for royal kids, and kick back profits to the USMilitary industrial complex, the monster to be fed. The Petro-Dollar has permitted the USEconomy to live off a credit card, without direct consequence to abused debt. The Petro-Dollar has permitted the USMilitary to seek out and conquer, to effect the hearts & minds, and to plunder. The creditor nations of the world realize their role as the victims who finance the field operations and covert operations. That all changed with the narcotics industry born in the Cambodia Triangle, advanced in the Kosovo depot, and accelerated in the Afghan poppy fields. The USGovt security agencies have had independent income for over three decades. Witness the first Langley coup of a foreign state in Ukraine. The untold story is the conflict between the USMilitary and the Langley Mercenaries. Look later to find the Odessa Ltd split, just like in the 1950 birth for the old Nazi Germany war machine enterprise.

Many are the errors. The US corporate titans responded to both environmental strictures and labor union demands, by relocating many operations in the Pacific Rim. The US domestic income source was displaced. The Americans sought to rely upon asset bubbles for income. They spent home equity on consumerism objectives, but in fairness often for necessities. The Greenspan Fed contributed significantly to the wrecked state. They moved away from valid monetary policy whereby money supply increase was to match economic growth. Instead, following the Rubin directive, the Mr Magoo cutout ordered the monetary aggregate to follow the Consumer Price Inflation index in the most egregious central bank error in modern history to that date. The falsified CPI enabled unchecked increases in money released within the system. Debt growth also exploded to create a USEconomy that resembled a cross between a hedge fund and a Ponzi scheme. The Irrational Exuberance speech was his disclaimer, a weak statement easily seen through by the Jackass and many others. 

The promoted strategy of easy money being stimulus is patently false. The low interest rates actually act like a wet blanket, reducing income to savers, but keeping interest payments down. Unfortunately twice as much volume exists in accounts due interest income payouts, versus loan portfolios due interest from monthly service payments. To the contrary, easy money is a debt bomb and capital acid. The climax error was likely more a grand betrayal, granting China the Most Favored Nation status. The purpose stayed hidden for many years, to lease their gold by Wall Street firms. The result has been a loss of US legitimate income, during a period of profound capital investment in China by Western firms. The Western Govts idiotically complained about Chinese trade surpluses, when two thirds of their surpluses came from subsidiaries of Western firms with heavy blessed foreign direct investment. The result has been debt writedowns that take capital equipment and other fixed assets into the mothballs, while hyper inflation has killed capital directly. The result is systemic failure for the US nation, which can no longer finance its debt.

The mindset of the nation has been that to promote recovery, the people must be given money to put in their pockets for spending purposes. Wrong again, since what the people need is jobs, removal of heavy corporate taxation, and clearing of malodorous federal regulatory obstacles. The US nation has lost its way on what capitalism is. It embraces socialism, with all its ravages. It endorses austerity, which is nothing more than poison pills. It permits war machine aggression as foreign policy for both infrastructure alteration and currency defense. The nation can rebound if the capital structures are renovated and permitted to grow from seed, namely capital formation. This has become a foreign concept in the nation once considered the cradle of capitalism. The former communist nations have become the capitalism adopters, while the former capitalist nation leader has adopted national socialism (aka nazi). The Untied States will undergo re-industrialization again, but by the Chinese carpet baggers. They are loaded with $1.3 trillion in USTreasury Bonds.

Look at the new businesses that have been hatched in the last decade, as they litter the Wall Street landscape. They are truly pathetic. See NetFlix and FaceBook and Groupon and LinkeIn, even Twitter and Monster. The list is long and unimpressive. These are disk drive racks and elaborate living room couches and kitchen boxes. These are not corporations with deep capital investment and useful products flowing, intellectual capital exploited, value added from talented work forces, and enduring contributions to both economy and society. Look at the new national initiatives. There was the Green Revolution sponsored by Obama, but it proved to be a sham. See Solyndra and its fraudulent loans, the favorite personal Obama portfolio investment. There should have been a freight firm IPO to reward Obama ventures on gun running to Mexico. It could have become a good movement, for solar, for wind, for waves. Instead a fraudulent field, just like the mortgage weeded field. The new national initiative is the shale oil and fracking gas strategy, which is both short-lived and destructive. The shale oil revolution is a fleeting flash in the pan, requiring a Ponzi growth in new wells to compensate for extremely rapid wellhead depletion. The fracking gas movement punctures the natural tables, and thus contaminates the water supply, catering to the Halliburton monopoly on fracking chemicals. Not even witnessing evidence of tens of thousands of water pools on fire can stop this administration, hellbent on destruction. 

Even the Obama Care national health insurance plan has hidden malignant tumor-like motives. See the slush funds to cronies, where money vanished. See the triple cost versus touted by officials. See the required financial statements that enable tracking other assets wished to remain in shadows. See the eventual ID chip implanted on the upper left arm. Feel the part-time nightmare response to the labor market. The disasters of the Obama Admin will be the stuff of history books. What Bush Jr Admin did to wreck the USEconomy from aggressive war costs, the Obama Admin complemented with wreckage of the USEconomy from internal caustic seeds.

PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE & FRAIL HOUSES

The US nation is filled with households that cover the spectrum. Many are very unhappy about the current path taken by the nation. Many are suddenly insecure with the popular inflation hedge in the home equity having vanished. Many are suddenly insecure also from the poor labor market, and the plethora of substandard jobs. Gone are the engineering jobs and foremen posts that used to pay well, or even bond issuer posts. They are replaced by fast food marts, cashier posts, retail sales, customer service, freight movers, secretaries, night watchmen, janitors, and cleaning staff. The nation has a new disease uncovered in many households, if the scattered reports from Hat Trick Letter clients reflects the masses. The Jackass refers to it as Arrogant Ignorance, which separates the ordinary bright educated masses from the Intellectuals. Take an intelligent person, remove the scientific method of working with verifiable evidence, add on assumptions embedded in defiance, sprinkle with some righteous indignation, add some old fashioned anger and insult, and you arrive at Arrogant Ignorance. This disease is rampant, and divides families. The Contempt Before Investigation, with harsh dismissal of actively thinking people, is a horrendous mental rotten apple all too often seen on the table. Both factors are ripe in the Jackass own original family, although the new adopted Latina families are far more open minded and promising. Let it be known that my father, although not in agreement with many perceptions and beliefs, has supported the newsletter, in particular with 2004 seed capital to accompany the intellectual sweat equity and shoestring needs. If professional workers used these weak mental methods in the work place, the would fail on a widespread basis, lose and look bad. The national condition is not being examined rationally, but rather emotionally and against weird psychological frameworks built in flimsy defense.

In the last three years, a few colleagues and the Jackass have investigated reasons why people do not investigate or show interest in the decayed financial structures and depleted economy. We examine why they choose to remain uninformed and in the dark. This is a new intriguing aspect of human psychology to me, and as fascinating as disturbing. Here are some conclusions after a couple of years. a) We conclude that some people have over-arching belief systems for their lives that are sacrosanct and not challenged. b) We conclude that some people are so frightened by certain threats, that they wish to ignore them. c) We conclude that some people wish to believe the leaders, laws, and system protect them, another sacred belief. d) We conclude that some people are successful in their work, and deeply invested in the current system, that they do not wish to alter the system in which they succeed. These justifications and phenomena are not comprehensive or exhaustive. They are a work in progress, which go together with the Stockholm Syndrome and the Warsaw Effect. These two address the emotional integration between victim and assailant, and the denial of threat while trapped within walls. However, integrate the four described items and something more perverse emerges. What appears is defense mechanisms for a failed nation and delusional defeated masses. Too many people have succumbed to the pressures, and remain hidden in their little anal caves. 

HOPE IN GOLD STANDARD

The hope lies in Gold & Silver, if they can find any available supply, that is. The household and business savings hoard available to convert to precious metals is no longer ample, another challenge. The suppressed price has wrecked the market. The supply chain has been interrupted, with numerous mining firms putting marginal projects on hold or suspended them indefinitely. The Chinese are acquiring the mine capacity, and even courting the global mining firms, to take supply from the COMEX. The precious metal bars and coins remain the salvation for the masses. They should be accumulated despite all obstacles by the USGovt and protestations by unschooled irrational spouses. The downtrodden masses have hope. Their hope lies in a return to the Gold Standard, with a legitimate New Dollar currency. The nation must pay for its economic sins and financial frauds and warmongering deeds first. It will be a painful process, probably with an isolation which could resemble a quarantine, during a period of frightening chaos. 

The Return to the Gold Standard will be a rocky process, complete with tremendous disruptions. The nations of the world must recapitalize their central banks as well as their entire banking systems. They will convert USTreasury Bonds to Gold & Silver bullion. They will then move to convert UKGilts, EuroBonds, PIGS sovereign bonds, JapGovtBonds, and other toxic paper into Gold Bullion. The bullion banks must restore the allocated gold accounts they pillaged. The USFed and Bank of England must restore the allocated gold accounts they rehypothecated (borrowed, stole). The birth of the Eurasian Trade Zone is on the verge, and the US & UK fraud kings are not to be invited. The BRICS Bank will soon emerge with a key role to convert toxic sovereign bonds into Gold Bullion for the Emerging Market nations. The parade of gold-backed and resource-backed currencies will provide a procession of legitimacy and honor. The US & UK will be outside looking in, a punishment for acting at the Axis of Fascism in the last few decades, not just the last several years. The 911 event was just a coming out party, their Patriot Act an actual Gestapo Manifesto declaration. The true defense is to acquire Gold & Silver and gild the doors from the jackboots.

 

logo1About Jim Willie

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at  www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at  JimWillieCB@aol.com

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Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”

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10 Rare Earths Stocks You Can Buy Cheap

As China’s rare earth production winds down, other sources worldwide could shape up to reward early investors. But there are different ways to play this (slowly) growing market. Zachary Schumacher, international market analyst with Asian Metals, tells The Mining Report how investors can go medium or long on rare earths, and why joint venture and offtake partnerships are the biggest factors in creating value. 

Agressive investors will love those selling at fractions of their prices 2-3 years ago -Editor Money Talks 

The Mining Report: Zachary, it’s good to have you with us. Many rare earth element (REE) projects are uneconomic at current REE prices. Please give us your “state of the sector” address.

Zachary Schumacher: There are a lot of challenges in the market. There’s a good portion of projects that are uneconomic. Current REE prices make it difficult to justify projects. On top of that, there are some environmental issues with processing. Until we see a real change in the market, very few projects stand out.

TMR: Prices for heavy rare earths (HREEs), at least, have shown some signs of price recovery. What’s most likely to create shareholder value in REE equities: higher REE prices, joint venture(JV) offtake agreements, vertical integration or perhaps other factors that you deem to be relevant?

ZS: That’s a difficult question. There’s a timeframe for a lot of things. Long-term investors would be more interested in higher REE prices. If you’re looking for a project to go into production, JV and offtake agreements are important.

TMR: Interesting. Is that because there’s just not a lot of easy access to capital to develop these projects and JV partners provide that, or is it simply about confidence that a given name is on board?

ZS: JVs give access to more capital, which eliminates a huge barrier. Processing costs are a huge capital expenditure for REEs. It also provides somebody who arguably is going to be consuming or utilizing the material in some other aspect in the production chain. It provides a level of technical expertise that reassures investors.

Take Avalon Rare Metals Inc.’s (AVL:TSX; AVL:NYSE; AVARF:OTCQX) partnership with Solvay. Solvay offers technical experience with processing. You have an opportunity to be outside of China. This partnership is a good way for Avalon to show that it recognizes the cost of doing it alone may be unfeasible. So you have a political, technical and economic benefits.

avalon

TMR: Avalon is hoping that this agreement with Solvay will ultimately result in a JV or offtake agreement with a much larger suitor. Does this deal get Avalon closer to a cash-rich partner?

ZS: It definitely improves its position. It shows that it has an option for processing. It’s got to put it high on the list of potential partners looking at sources outside of China.

TMR: The capex for Nechalacho means that a partner will have to be a big-time player. Avalon likes to tout that it’s the only REE company that has a bankable feasibility study. Does that increase the chances?

ZS: The feasibility study helps. It shows its willingness and the realism of the project. Yes, the partner would have to be a company with deep pockets. The thing is that a lot of these companies need reliable sources of the material.

TMR: Are there any companies outside of China that you consider vertically integrated?

ZS: Molycorp Inc. (MCP:NYSE) is close, but its processing is in China. Rhodia Inc., which is part of Solvay, would probably be the closest. It does some of its processing out of La Rochelle in France. There is some internal consumption, and some is sold downstream. There are a few projects styled to be vertically integrated that aren’t active right now.

mcp

TMR: What about Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. (GWG:TSX.V; GWMGF:OTCQX)?

gwg

ZS: Great Western is selling the less-than-common alloys, which is driving its REE project. But it’s not in production for its rare earth oxide yet.

TMR: Which companies have shareholder-friendly offtake or JV partnerships?

ZS: Matamec Explorations Inc. (MAT:TSX.V; MRHEF:OTCQX) and Toyota Motor Group have a good one from Matamec’s point of view. Toyota is not asking that much of Matamec. It provides a good avenue for offloading the material and a background of technical experience similar to Solvay and Avalon.

mat

Frontier Rare Earths Ltd. (FRO:TSX) and Korea Resource Corp., or KORES, have some people questioning what role a government organization like KORES will have. At the moment, it’s a confidence booster that provides a level of structural government political support. The offtake agreement is a 10% stake in the company and KORES is obligated to offtake 10% as well. If there’s an increase in the interest, it would up KORES’s control to about 50% and up the offtake of the material to about 50%. That may worry some investors that a government organization could control about 50% of a company, but it’s an economic deal. KORES wants the company to do well. It recognizes, being right next door to China, the need to have alternative sources outside of China. I’m less worried about political ramifications.

fro

TMR: What should an investor who is looking to gain exposure to this sector look for?

ZS: A lot of projects are suffering from being uneconomic at current prices and demand. There are two big issues: where you do processing and how you do processing. Also, how cost effective is your processing and how much material can you process—what volumes are you looking at?

TMR: What’s a suitable capex range?

ZS: Projects can range from $300–400 million ($300–400M) or higher. Anything below $300M is more plausible.

TMR: Greenland Minerals & Energy Ltd. (GGG:ASX) has an agreement with China Non-Ferrous Metal Industry’s Foreign Engineering and Construction Co. Ltd., or NFC. The deal states that Greenland will use NFC’s separation plant to process its concentrate from Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project in Greenland. As an investor, would you prefer projects that produce oxides or is a simple concentrate the better option because of the lower capex and thus lower risk?

ZS: I’m inclined to say oxides, but producing an REE concentrate is much more feasible. It may be more attractive for investors to say, “Hey, I know this company may not be getting into the downstream industries, but I can rely on the overall market to improve demand for HREEs in the long term.”

TMR: Let’s get into another aspect of this business. Some companies, like Namibia Rare Earths Inc. (NRE:TSX, NMREF:OTCQX) in Namibia, are in jurisdictions where it’s easier to get a REE mine permitted. How much of an advantage is that?

NRE

Namibia Rare Earths Inc. has a good project. It’s definitely smart for the company to be where it is.

ZS: Namibia as a jurisdiction is desirable, with the environmental regulations, distance to ports and the political support that a company like Namibia Rare Earths can gather for a project. Investors want to look at a place that where they can rely on a readiness, a history and a legal framework.

Namibia Rare Earths has a good project. It’s definitely smart for the company to be where it is. It’s an area where it’ll be easier to get started.

TMR: If you were handicapping this race, what is the next publically traded REEs company to have a JV?

ZS: A few have good projects that could warrant a partnership. Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (UCU:TSX.V; UURAF:OTCQX) is high on my list. It has a good base and understands the market very well. Many had concerns about the area’s infrastructure. Alaska obviously has good reserves of a number of materials, but it can be difficult to get them to port. However, the recent passing of SB 99 by the Alaska State Senate puts an additional $145M toward infrastructure development for this project alone. Investors should be pleased to find local political and economic support for a project, but more importantly, financial assistance at this level can offer real assurance to companies looking to partner, as well.

UCU

Texas Rare Earth Resources Corp. (TRER:OTCQX) has an interesting project as well. The company is new to the sphere, so investors may be a little standoffish, but I like the project.

TRER

TMR: I don’t think a lot of investors know the story with Texas Rare Earths. Can you tell us?

ZS: Texas Rare Earths has been around for several years. It’s one of the smaller projects. It is based in Texas, which the company likes to highlight as a positive. The regulatory environment for setting up a business can be friendlier there.

One of the things that may be holding it back is that it doesn’t really have a lot of its documentation up yet. It doesn’t have a feasibility study, and it’s going to update its existing preliminary economic assessment. It’s looking at a long-term mine that will be able to produce small volumes of 5,000 and 8,000 tons per year (5–8 ktpa) for 20 years.

TMR: Does management have experience?

ZS: I’ve talked to some of the management. They have a technical background. CEO Daniel Gorski has been in the mining industry a lot of years. I think he understands it. He doesn’t come from a background of REEs, but he worked with a uranium explorer previously. It goes a long way in REEs if you understand the difficulty of dealing with radioactive material or even have close ties with people who might offtake some of that material or store it.

TMR: What public company could be the next to bag an offtake agreement?

ZS: I like Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. (QRM:TSX; QRM:NYSE.MKT). Strange Lake is an interesting middle-sized project. Extraction is an issue. Companies are going to look at that and know it. Its location in Québec, an area of Canada that has history with mining, goes a long way.

QRM

TMR: Even with the poor performance of the REE sector during the past few years, new players, like Texas Rare Earth Resources, continue to enter the space. Does that mean there’s still money to be made?

ZS: Maybe it’s the other way around. It may be that mining companies recognize that there is still interest in the market from investors. Is there still money to be made on the investors’ behalf? Yes. There’s definitely a level of opportunity out there, should a company get far enough to get into production.

But is there still room? The market is flushed with JV companies that are not quite in production, and even new ones. The difficulty of getting one of these companies into production may be insurmountable even for great projects with good management, good background and low capex. There may be a bit of overconfidence among some people going into new projects.

It’s a two-sided coin. The REEs market is still suffering from the doldrums of the bubble popping. If prices were high, any of these projects would be plausible to come on-line. For the short term, it looks like a number of these projects have no chance.

There’s a timeframe where you can see that there’s growing demand for these products. Look at neo magnets: There’s very few ways to avoid using them. That market’s big in the U.S. The magnet market hasn’t shrunk. They haven’t had any incentive to leave now that prices are falling. It just makes their production cheaper. At a certain point you’re going to see a flattening out of price. Long-term demand for magnets in a hundred industries will likely continue to grow. There’s space for a company or two outside of China to produce, to do processing and to be a very promising investment opportunity for plenty of investors. It’s finding the right one. That’s been the game for the past two years.

TMR: If getting a mine into production was the only way to make money as a mining investor, there wouldn’t be a mining sector. There’s such a small percentage of any mined commodity that actually reaches production. If there was a sudden, dramatic swing again in REE prices, investors could make money on some of these names even if their chances of getting into production didn’t increase at all.

ZS: That’s definitely true. The perception that the market is not doing very well is driven by REE pricing. Consumption is still there. People who consume the material, they recognize that they need to use it. It’s in their cost analysis. They anticipate long-term projections for these materials. Not because the market’s going to flatten out and disappear, but because they need to use it and everybody else needs to use it. If you do see a turnaround in REE prices, there are a number of companies that could benefit investors—even without the project going into production. Investors can still tap into the growing market.

TMR: The message then to an investor is to be long REEs.

ZS: Yeah. Be long or find your moment. Wait for the moment when you see REE prices bottoming out. And we may be fast approaching that level. The future of REEs isn’t bad.

TMR: Thanks, Zachary.

Zack Schumacher joined AsianMetal Inc. as a rare earths and tech metals analyst in 2013. He covers fluctuations in the prices and consumption of these materials and manages several indices that list current market prices. Schumacher received his Bachelor’s degree from the University of Pittsburgh in international relations and Chinese and completed his Master’s of International Business from New York University.

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DISCLOSURE: 
1) Brian Sylvester conducted this interview for Streetwise Reports LLC, publisher of The Gold Report, The Energy Report, The Life Sciences Report and The Mining Report, and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He owns, or his family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. 
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Namibia Rare Earths Ltd. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services.
3) Zach Schumacher: I own, or my family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am, or my family is, paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview. 
4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent. 
5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.
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“The stock market in an incredible position”

“This is what I call an “erosion market.”  It’s one of the nastiest types of markets that you’ll ever have to deal with.  It’s illustrated in the Dow chart by a large cluster of back and forth movements, appearing almost like a solid block of fluctuating movements.  This is a market where you buy a stock and a day later you’re sorry you bought it as the stock suddenly drops 10%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Screen Shot 2014-04-09 at 8.02.27 AM 

By the same token, this is a market where you short a stock and a day later the stock rallies six points and you’re stopped out.  An erosion market can be as costly as a bear market.  Ten minor losing trades, when combined, can add up to one large, nasty loss.  I’ve asked my subscribers to stay out of this market, because an eroding market can murder any portfolio over time. 

I thought Friday was a key sentiment day.  On Friday I thought outright greed and extreme optimism suddenly turned to questioning with just a touch of fear.  The unimpressive employment statistics caused a strange and abrupt halt to the optimism.  It was as though the pros in unison thought — “Has the Great Recession really ended?”  At Friday’s close the Dow Industrials and Transports and NASDAQ were all down triple digits for the first time in many months.

Question — Russell, I gather you don’t care for this stock market since you have been on the sidelines except for physical gold and silver and one preferred stock.  If you don’t care for this market, then why don’t you recommend shorts?

Answer — When you put out shorts you are depending on timing.  If you short the market, you may be perfectly correct, but before the market or your stocks go down, suppose there’s a sudden violent rally.  In a few days you are in a horrible fix.  Should you cover?  Were you wrong about shorting?  You see, being on the sidelines takes you out of harm’s way, and leaves you invulnerable whether the market collapses or rallies first before it collapses.

My experience with subscribers shorting is that they usually end up losing both money and sleep.  Don’t do it.  If you must play for the downside, buy out-of-the-money puts in which case you can only lose the price of the puts — even if you are wrong.

More on sentiment.  I’ve felt all along that the Great Recession never ended.  It was masked to some extent by the Fed’s QE and zero interest rates.  But if it becomes obvious that the US economy is still in recession, then the Fed will have to halt its tapering and change tactics.  This kind of sudden change in strategy would be almost unheard of by the Fed.  Actually, if the Fed abruptly halted its tapering, investors would immediately know that something was wrong, and that the economy was in trouble.

Thus, I see the stock market in an incredible position.  The major stock averages are near or at record highs, based on investors’ perception that the US economy is in good shape and getting better.  But if the perception of good times suddenly changes (which I think it did last Friday), then the stock market will be like Wile E. Coyote when he runs off the cliff and looks down and there is nothing but space under him!

I read a number of quotes by “name analysts” after Friday’s close.  One well-known analyst said that he was so suspicious of the situation that he would not be shocked if the Dow “crashed” by twenty percent.  And my thought was that most of the bears are thinking of a worst case being the long-awaited ten percent correction.  My own thought is that if this market turns down, the fooler could be that the stock market may be completing the Bear market that started in 2007.  The fact is that if the stock market turns down, nobody in this world knows where its is heading.  Me, I vote for the sidelines along with physical silver and gold.

By the way, I note that one of my favorite newsletter writers wrote that “gold is just another currency.”  I disagree.  Gold represents pure wealth and unlike all other currencies, gold needs no nation to guarantee its worth or value.  The gold that Cleopatra wore around her neck represented wealth in her time.  And that same gold represents wealth today.  

All the gold ever mined in history represents wealth today.  Can any currency make that statement?  No, gold is not just another currency.  Tie up a bundle of hundred dollar bills, put them in a vault, and will them to your great-great-grandchildren.  Then place twenty gold one-ounce coins in a box and will those coins to the same great-great-grandchildren.  Which is a better and more valuable gift?  Odds are the bundle of hundred dollar bills will, in due time, be worth nothing unless they have some collectible value.

Below we see the silver/gold ratio.  And what’s this?  The ratio has turned up in favor of silver.  I encourage subscribers to take actual physical positions in silver.  I think something is quietly brewing in silver.  Buy the “monster” pack of 500 ounces of silver.  The pack comes in a special green box, put out and packed by the US Treasury.

 

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE. Ed Note: I just spoke with Richard’s head office and I am told that Richard still wakes up every morning excited to see what is going on in the markets. That is why his production of writing for his customers is so prolific. Not only does he mail out his extensive Newsletter every 3 weeks, but he sends out a comment every day with his thoughts on the markets action that day. All this for .82 cents a day, or only $300 per year!

A Big Correction Short Sellers Can Profit From

The Increase In Volatility Spells Trouble For The Market

Summary

 

  • Severe correction looming.
  • 4th quarter setting up to be strong.
  • Nimble traders can profit short term.

This year is only 3 months old and we have already witnessed a dramatic increase in volatility and 2 short but painful corrections. I can honestly say that this has been the most difficult time in my 30 years in this industry. However, if experience has taught me anything, it’s that an increase in volatility coupled with frequent corrections usually means trouble for the market and investors.

On the economic front, we are also seeing a slight slowdown. Not a major slump indicating a recession, but on a year over year basis, we are seeing a downturn indicating that the economy will grow more slowly. This coincides perfectly with the demographic forces I discuss in my book, “Facing Goliath – How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead”, where the bulk of our population, the baby boomers, is well past their peak spending years. Unfortunately, the generation behind them, Gen-ex is not large enough to sustain their spending power, and the emergence of the next bull market generation, the echo-boomers, will require patience as they will not hit their spending stride for 5-7 more years.

Although we are overdue for a major correction, I don’t think that this is the “big one” – that cataclysmic crash that everyone is waiting for. In fact it is just that reason, that so many people are expecting a crash, that it will not happen… this time. Very simply, markets don’t crash when everyone expects them to.

The looming correction will however be agonizing enough to drive people out of the market, and then sit on the sidelines waiting to get back in but missing the advance as it rallies back. That is a classic correction and rebound.

There is one other indicator leading me to be cautious. Over the last few months, we have begun to see a major market rotation shift in leadership from growth to value and small cap to large cap. This is typically a defensive late bull market indicator.

Critical Market Strategy
It is time to err of the side of caution. Given the timing, this could be a “sell in May and walk away” situation. Although it’s important to remember that this phenomenon is never 100% accurate, and when you expect it to happen, it doesn’t. A sound strategy for this market will require investors to be very nimble, employing a tactical hands-on investment management approach.

A correction of even just 10-15% will be very painful and scare the bejeesus out of everyone, including the media. I intend to reduce risk slightly towards the end of the next earnings announcements in a few weeks. Earnings will be good and stocks will go higher. Although if they’re bad, run for the door. I will not be pulling out of the market completely because this will most likely be just a correction and not a crash.

Of course, if we get no correction and the market shoots higher, we will have sacrificed some of the upside returns. However, I am willing to take that chance. To me, this is in tune with buying life insurance. You only get paid if you die, but no one ever complains when they don’t die to get paid! If you disagree, please let me know and I will adjust your portfolio accordingly.

shapeimage 22Nimble traders can profit from strong Q1 earnings announcements in powerful growth names like Apple (AAPL), which will surprise on the upside; Microsoft (MSFT), which is the staple for every computer made; Google (GOOG), which is leading the technology war; Facebook (FB), which is the social media staple and is winning over the older crowd, the very people with money and who will not be upset by their ads. Or simply buy the market ETFs like QQQ and SPY. After earnings season, aggressive traders should be out of these names and or hedging with VIX.

 

 

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