What a mess the world is in. China, occupying the South China Sea, the Senkaku and Spratly Islands, hunting down oil and gas, ignoring territorial rights of others, ready to wage a war if need be.

Russia, arming itself to the teeth along Ukraine’s border, ready to invade. Scaring the dickens out of the people of Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Poland – all of who think they are next on Putin’s list.

Trade wars (disguised as sanctions) erupting between Europe, the U.S. and Russia. Putin banning all food imports and more. Over $40 billion in U.S. company sales at risk for the likes of Boeing, PepsiCo, McDonald’s, Deere, Visa and MasterCard, DuPont.

Europe’s economy, already in a depression, to get worse, much worse.

Neo-Nazi groups rising in popularity throughout Europe. Eastern Europe worrying the Iron Curtain will rise again.

Argentina defaulting on its sovereign debt for the second time in 13 years.

Nigeria’s extremist Boko Haram still running amuck, raping, kidnapping and killing thousands.

The Islamic State of Syria and Iran (ISIS) killing scores more, running over sovereign states as if they were mere speed bumps along the road to creating an extremist Islamic caliphate based on terror and a twisted view of Islam.

Israel and Gaza at each other’s throats again, and despite the recent truce, my sources in Israel tell me there is no real end in sight and they expect the conflict to get worse, much worse in the weeks ahead.

Time to batten down the hatches, as I stated in my column on July 28?

You can bet your bottom dollar it is. And realize this:

First, the war cycles that I first warned you about two years ago are ramping up with an intensity that even I find surprising. So much so that I now believe that, yes, World War III may be right around the corner.

Second, international conflict is only one part of the war cycles. As I’ve also pointed out in the past, the domestic war cycles are also ramping up at the same time as the international war cycles are …

Meaning you can also expect rising civil unrest and rebellions. Their chief cause? When governments are bankrupt — like the U.S. and Europe are today — historically they turn first against their own citizens by raising taxes, by attacking the rich, by spying on them, by engaging in confiscatory measures, and more.

Hence the NSA spying, which continues unabated. The constitution-free zones of our nation’s borders, where 200 million Americans live, 60 percent of our country’s entire population …

And where the Fourth Amendment has been suspended, giving Washington extraordinary powers to stop, search and detain anyone without due process of law.

And more, much more draconian measures to come as Washington runs amuck, repeating the same old mistakes that have caused the decline of every major power throughout history.

So what is an investor to do?

Simple, realize this: With every crisis comes opportunity. So while it is time to batten down the hatches,it is NOT time to simply sit on the sidelines and stuff your money under a mattress.

Instead, it’s time to protect your wealth from the riskiest of investments, and look for opportunities in others!

That means …

First, steer clear of the riskiest investments. Those investments right now largely involve U.S. and European equity markets.

As I warned a couple of weeks ago, the U.S. broad equity markets are now in an interim bear market that could last anywhere from five to 10 months in duration, into December of this year, or worst case, May of next year.

I expect a 20 percent swoon in the Dow, and roughly the same in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Use any bounce of the recent lows to get out of all stocks except those recommended in my Real Wealth Report and those you may be trading on a short-term basis.

For longer-term holdings you cannot exit, for whatever reason, hedge via an inverse ETF such as the ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH).

And no matter what, steer clear of Europe’s equity markets as much as possible.

Second, also avoid U.S. and European sovereign bonds. Yes, bond prices are rallying of late, due to flight to safety capital. But the bond rally is not going to last. The downside to owning U.S. and European sovereign bonds is HUGE. Steer clear of them and keep your liquid safe-keeping money in shorter-term money markets.

Third, continue to accumulate precious metals. Gold is starting to finally lift its head, and as expected, is stronger than silver. But don’t rule out platinum and palladium, the next phases of their long-term bull markets are also shaping up nicely.

Fourth, steer clear of the euro currency! It’s a disaster in the making and has now confirmed on my models a major bear market that will see the euro lose as much as 28 percent of its value against the dollar over the next three years.

Not surprisingly, just as I’ve warned, the dollar is rallying (right along with gold). That’s because frightened capital pouring out of Europe and other parts of the world still see the dollar as the safest place to be during times of geo-political unrest.

This is precisely what happened in the 1930s, and it’s happening again.

Keep most of your funds in the U.S. dollar. Other currencies that should appreciate going forward include the Aussie and New Zealand dollars, and most Asian currencies.

Fifth, speaking of Asia — and to all those who say Asia’s stock markets cannot rally when Europe and the U.S. are falling — I say baloney.

According to all of my models, most Asian equity markets are now embarking upon new long-term bull markets, with China leading the way higher.

Bottom line: Consider putting some of your money to work in Asian equity markets via an ETF such as iShares Asia 50 (AIA).

Stay tuned, stay safe, and best wishes,

Larry

The Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a very rare “Monthly Key Reversal Down” in July…this may signal the beginning of the BIG reversal we’ve been expecting. In June, when we saw that the “smart money” was getting defensive we got long the US dollar and in late July, short the stock market. We will be looking to add to these positions in the weeks and months ahead.

We expected the reversal in Market Psychology would be caused by:

1)  A realization that the Fed was going to raise rates higher and faster than the market wanted to believe, and/or,

2)  Geo-political stress.

In the past few weeks mainstream analysts have begun to share our views on interest rates…and that change of sentiment has had a big impact on credit spreads and currencies…but geo-political events seem to have had limited impact on Market Psychology…witness WTI below $100 and gold down $50 from its early July highs.

But we are having second thoughts about the “limited impact” of geo-political stress…we wonder if the “fallout” from the Ukraine crisis was the “straw that broke the back” of the Euro…which had remained puzzlingly strong until early May…we wonder if the increasing geo-political stress was what convinced the “smart money” to start getting defensive in June.    

We have expected a reversal in Market Psychology to produce:

     1) A rising US Dollar,

     2) Widening credit spreads,

      3) A falling stock market.

When Market Psychology is bullish buyers are more aggressive than sellers. When buyers are aggressive they buy riskier markets…and they are more willing to use leverage. When Market Psychology reverses buyers dump riskier markets and reduce leverage…voluntarily or otherwise. We think that the “mood swings” in Market Psychology  “show up” in the use of leverage…and that is key to understanding price changes.

We love the expression, “Risk Happens Fast.”

1)  Eight trading days ago the DJIA closed 6 points off its All Time Highs…today it traded more than 600 points lower,

2)  Credit spreads started to widened in early July…then collapsed into the end of the month as junk went “no bid” and Treasuries were steady/better,

3)  The US Dollar Index  “turned on a dime” at the beginning of July and rallied to 10 month highs by the end of the month,

4)  Volatility across asset classes was near All Time lows at the beginning of July…by the end of the month the VIX…the Fear index…had jumped ~70%.

For the past few months we have maintained that the market was “priced for perfection” creating the seeds of its own destruction…markets get “way over-bought” and then reverse sharply…“risk would happen fast” and, like the game musical chairs…there are never enough chairs when the music stops.

Trading:

We remain long the US Dollar Index…this is a “core” longer term trade. We’ve taken profits on our short CAD and AUD positions. We remain short the US stock market…we’re up the equivalent of 500 DJIA points…but (in a risk management move) we wrote short-dated OTM puts against our position at the end of the week…as put prices soared on skyrocketing option volatility. We will be looking to make more US Dollar bullish/stock market bearish trades in the weeks ahead.

Chart section:

The classic “Monthly Key Reversal Down” from All Time Highs registered by the DJIA in July is RARE…we think it signals the beginning of at least a meaningful correction ahead in the stock market.

The Dow Jones Utilities Index topped out ahead of the DJIA as worries about rising interest rates hit this index first. In the first week of July it registered a “Weekly Key Reversal Down” from All Time Highs…then had another WKRD last week.

The Russell Index of 2000 stocks turned down from a double top in early July as the DJIA went on to make new All Time Highs (the smart money was dumping riskier assets and getting defensive.)

Last week the Toronto Index registered a Weekly Key Reversal Down from All Time Highs.We think it goes down from here.

The principle German share index was trading at All Time Highs at the beginning of July…but sold off harder than the American market throughout the month…perhaps on geo-political stress and/or rising interest rate premiums in America. (Our core view is that capital flows “back to the center” when markets shift to risk off.)

The US Dollar Index traded to 10 month highs at the end of July. This Index has a heavy weighting of European currencies…which we expect to weaken Vs. the Dollar. We look for the US Dollar to trade above last year’s highs (8475) in the months ahead.

The NZD registered its All Time Highs in August 2011…around the same time that gold topped out. We think it is “way-too-high” at current levels and could easily fall 5 – 10% in the months ahead.

The CAD has been in a downtrend (from 106) since the commodity markets peaked in 2011. It hit a 5 year low in March 2014…bounced (with a big assist from short-covering) to 9400 and then rolled over in early July. We expect it to take out the March lows before the end of 2014