Personal Finance

Market Buzz – How Little Old Jackson Hole Became a World Financial Hub – Once a Year

page1 img1This past week, one of the most anticipated economic conferences kicked off. In attendance was the who’s who of world central banking and global financial markets hung on every word from keynote speeches by Janet Yellen, Chair of the U.S. Federal reserve, and Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank. The annual conference, which has been going on since 1978, is a chance for central bankers, finance ministers and academics to talk about the world economy in a public but informal setting.

So where is this world renowned financial conference held…New York, London, Hong Kong, Geneva? Wrong on all accounts. Try Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Sounds very financial, particularly with its proximity to the financial hub of Idaho.

So why Jackson Hole? The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has hosted an annual economic policy symposium at Jackson Lake Lodge since 1982. They chose Jackson Hole in 1982 because of its trout fishing, as they were trying to attract Paul Volcker, who was Chairman of the Federal Reserve and a keen fly-fisherman. Apparently, it worked.

The tone is low-key: Jackson Lake Lodge, the relatively spartan setting for the talks, remains open to the public throughout the event. And there is little chance of an 18-course dinner like the one consumed by G8 leaders a few years ago at a summit in Japan on ending starvation (not the best optics by the way). The event is formally known as the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s “Economic Symposium.”

In a textbook case of network effects, Volcker’s regular attendance attracted other policymakers and made the event an unequalled gathering for big economic hitters. Most conferences are hungry for attendance; Jackson Hole is by invitation only, and in recent years those invitations have become scarcer.

To maintain the relaxed atmosphere, reporters must observe what are now known as “Jackson Hole rules”: the proceedings are all on the record but all other remarks during the conference, such as mealtime conversations, are off the record.

Yellens’ Speech

Ms. Yellen broke little new ground in her speech. She reiterated the Fed’s basic guidance after its July meeting that holding short-term interest rates near zero remains necessary and useful to increase employment. She said the gap between current conditions and a return to full health was still “significant.”

Acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding this assessment, Ms. Yellen added that the Fed was prepared to adjust its stance as the economic evidence became clearer, either moving more quickly to raise rates or holding steady for even longer. She said the Fed expected to end the expansion of its bond holdings in October.

Some analysts viewed Ms. Yellen’s speech — along with the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting, released on Wednesday — as evidence that the Fed had become a little more likely to raise rates earlier, if the economy kept gaining strength. For us, it does not appear that Yellen has changed her core views and that rates will remain low, supporting equities in the near-to mid-term at the least.

Stay the Course

While we remain with significant cash at the ready if or when a true correction occurs, we continue to see outperformance by our core “cash rich” small-caps stocks in our Focus 8-12 stock portfolios. Sticking with strong, cash rich balance sheets and stocks with above average growth prospects over the next 1-3 years remains the right strategy.

Unlevered stocks that do not need external capital to grow are well positioned in both up and down markets. We continue to be very selective in our efforts to uncover these specific types of Small-Cap Growth stocks to our clients.

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Disclaimer | ©2014 KeyStone Financial Publishing Corp.

Cash Back Mortgages – There is no Free Lunch

van2Full disclosure, there is a bias within the following words.  I have tried for a few weeks now to create more balance within this post, but in the face of effective interest rates of 53.38% (read on), it was exceedingly difficult to find significant strength in the ‘Pro’ stance.

 Short Version

Contemplating a cashback mortgage?  Please read on for the effective costs of such a move, there is no ‘free lunch’.

Top of mind should always be that Lending Institutions are Profit Driven Corporations beholden to Shareholders. This is the economic model we have adopted.  The age old debate between Capitalists and Socialists about the merits is a healthy one for our society to continue to have.  Being aware of the nature of the entity one is dealing with is always helpful.  Lenders are Capitalistic, not benevolent, in nature.

Within Lending Institutions there is an inherent drive to create superficially simple and attractive offerings for consumers.  The presentation of which tends to belie the underlying complexity of financial instruments itself.  The sole purpose of any product offering is to increase profits and drive market share in favour of the lender.  These products are laced with seemingly innocuous restrictions (prepayment penalties) designed to keep the client (i.e. borrower) locked into a cyclical relationship with their lender.

Long Version

The vast majority of Mortgage Brokers are aware that for their clients a cashback mortgage stands to create greater pitfalls than benefits.  The downside of (breaking) a cashback mortgage can be devastating.  Once an applicant understands all the metrics involved they often arrive at an alternate solution.  In life rarely do the easiest and best moves align with each other. Of 928 mortgages written in our office to date, only a single applicant has opted for the cashback product.  This was for a client with a truly unique profile;

  • Significant gross personal income
  • A detailed & manageable plan to pay the entire mortgage off in less than five years.
  • A recent life event had removed all savings and liquidity from their life, as well as their dwelling.
  • Renting was not an option for their specific circumstances

Basically 1 in 1000 clients found this product to be an effective lending solution.

The aforementioned client profile is the exact opposite of most who consider a cash-back mortgage product.  Often the applicant considering a cashback option has slipped into debt that they cannot keep up with, or have been unable to save up a down payment for a purchase.  In either instance a hard look at budgets and behaviour may indicate that a different long term solution is a safer choice.  Consider that past inability to budget properly may reflect future long term habits which are being temporarily glossed over and not truly corrected with this product.

What is a ‘cash-back mortgage’ exactly?

Essentially a mortgage which is signed at a higher than market interest rate, (this would be the ‘give’ from the client to the lender).  In exchange the client receives X% of the gross mortgage back in the form of cash at the time of signing (the ‘take’ from the lender for the client).

The % amount of cash back offered tends to range from 2% to as much as 5% which can be a very attractive amount of money.

The dazzle of the lure, the cash, often distracts from the barbed hook, i.e. the proportionately higher interest rate which effectively funnels all of the upfront cash back to the lender with significant interest over the term of the mortgage.

There is no free lunch.

It is important for clients to take a step back, pause, and review the mathematics.  Mathematics which often are not set out clearly at all during the approval process. We will use an example in the mid-range of options in the market, the numbers are that much more aggressive with increased percentages of cashback as the interest rates rises notably with the percentage of cashback offered.

We are happy to run the math on your own personal scenario.

A $100,000 3% cashback mortgage (as of Aug 2014 offered at 3.9% for 5 years – a 1% premium over current market rates) effectively costs an additional $4,989.60 in interest over the first five year term. In other words, the lender grants $3,000 up front, and claws back $4,989.60 in additional interest over the 5yr term… but this is only the beginning.

The $3,000.00 should not be viewed as 3.9% money, rather one should consider that there is a 1% premium being paid on the full $100,000 amount simply to create access to the  $3,000.00. Thus the entire excess interest paid on the $100,000 should be applied to only the $3,000.00 to get an accurate cost of the ‘free’ money.

The true cost of this $3,000.00 ‘gift’ equates to a 53.38% annual interest rate.

This is assuming an effective amortization of 5 years, same as the mortgage term. Unfortunately the $3,000 is in fact not fully amortized (paid off) during the first 5 years.

You may be asking yourself at this point what interest rate is considered ‘usury’ in Canada?  The answer is 60%, so this arrangement is all good…for the lender.

back to the numbers…

Ending balance comparisons 60 months later;

$86,901.89 – $100,000 mortgage 3.9% amortized over 25 years. (The cash-back rate)

$85,309.67 – $100,000 mortgage 2.9% amortized over 25 years. (The standard rate)

Despite paying the additional $4989.60 in interest for the first five years, the outstanding balance at the end of the five-year term remains $1592.22 higher than would the mortgage balance of a non-cashback mortgage with its lower effective interest rate.

The ripple effect

Assuming mortgage renewal into a standard mortgage is chosen.  (A second cashback would serve to magnify the negative impact significantly) We still see the continued ripple effect of the initial cash back decision ten years later. For the purposes of this example, we will assume interest rates are exactly the same as today.  Higher interest rates only serve to exacerbate the numbers, deepening the impact of a questionable decision made years earlier.

$86,901.89 – renewed at 2.9% over a 20 year amortization, as opposed to renewing a standard mortgage (also at 2.9% over a 20 year amortization) will which would have lower balance of $85,309.67 – results in;

  • $207.60 in additional interest over the second five-year term
  • $1,275.42 higher ending balance 10 years after the initial decision.

There is ‘really-really’ no free lunch…really!

Let’s assume 10 years later that the client writes a cheque for the $1275.42 difference to get to an even balance with the standard mortgage holder, the cash-back borrower is, ten years later, effectively paying a total of;

  • $4989.60 – additional interest or the first five years
  • $207.60 – additional interest over the second five years
  • $1275.42 – additional outstanding mortgage balance at the end of 10 years

This is a grand total of $6472.62.

Ten years earlier the client received $3000 ‘cash-back’ which felt like free money.  The reality is that to wind up with the same mortgage balance 10 years later as their neighbor that did not opt for the cashback mortgage they have paid an additional $6472.62.

This equates to an annual interest rate on the $3000 initially advanced of; 31.86% annual interest rate over a 10 year period.

But that’s not all folks, there’s more…

There remains an additional landmine within this product.  Prepayment Penalty Implications. This becomes a very lender specific issue, with nearly all Chartered Banks and Credit Unions falling into one category (ultra-aggressive) and non-bank lenders falling into a notably more generous camp. If/When a mortgage is broken early, the pre-payment penalty is rarely the 3 months interest so many expect, far more often it is the IRD – Interest Rate Differential penalty calculation that is implemented.

Stats show that 6 out of 10 Canadians break their mortgage an average of 38 months into the term. At this point the cash-back client has also paid $83.16 in additional interest per month, per $100,000 of mortgage money advanced. At 38 months this is an additional $3160.08 in interest per $100,000 of mortgage advanced.

Click here for a Chartered Banks prepayment calculator and you will quickly see that the penalty 38 months into a 60 month term is approximately $4500.00 per $100,000.00 of mortgage money.  About $3,750.00 MORE expensive than with this more favourable lender.

Read more on the heat being applied to the Chartered Banks byzantine penalty calculations here, along with one lenders stats on the % of CDN’s breaking mortgages each year (including year 1).

Then we have the (rotten) cherry on top;  In most instances the initial cash advance of $3000.00 (per $100,000) ‘cash-back’ is also clawed back.  This completely negates any perceived advantage remaining. The entire experience potentially costing, on average, $6810.08 in additional interest and penalty expenses – per $100,000 borrowed as opposed to taking a superior non-cash-back mortgage with a more forgiving non-bank lender.

One is arguably better served charging the $3,000.00 to a line of credit or even a credit card.

This last statement seems a pretty clear indictment of the ‘cash-back’ product a very poor solution for ‘debt consolidation’. Instead it typically clears the path for repeat bad habits taking suddenly cleared credit cards right back to their limits once again in short order.

Consider whether or not it is a Financial Institutions mandate to;

  1. Design simple money saving products which a consumer can easily understand and benefit from?

OR

  1. Design complex profit generating products which both consumers and regulators with find too difficult to analyze effectively but ‘feel’ OK with? The cumulative impact of such products combined with complicated prepayment penalty calculations conspire to take from the average CDN, and give to the average CDN Bank-Stock-Shareholder.

Moral #1 of this story – Buy Banks Stocks

Moral #2 of this story – Consult with an Accredited Mortgage Professional and have us ‘Do The Math’ on your behalf.

Thanks for your time!

Dustan Woodhouse –AMP

10 Must-Know High-Yield Canadian Real Estate Stocks

(1) Northern Property Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:NPR.UN.CA) — 5.3% YIELD

Northern Property Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated open-ended real estate investment trust that manages and owns a portfolio of residential and commercial income producing properties. NorSerCo’s operates execusuite hotel properties and real estate-related services. The Trust’s residential properties are comprised of three components: apartments, townhomes and single family rental units; execusuite apartment rental units; and seniors’ properties. The Trust’s commercial properties are comprised of office, industrial and retail properties in areas where it has residential operations. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. owned 8,419 residential units and 903,352 sq. ft. of commercial space.

10mustknow

 

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Real Estate: Investors Turning to Small Property Development

084e87a704762fed2247732a795060ad LLimited supply and high prices in key markets is encouraging landlords to embrace the role of small property developer. But are the big profits worth the hard work?

An increasing number of investors are turning their attention to property development in a bid to maximize on the demand for single-family homes.

Speaking to CREW, investor Sahil Jaggi says buying an old building and undertaking a complete rehab is the only way he can get into desirable neighbourhoods at a good price, and opportunity to make a lot of cash.

While admitting that the work is a full-time job with the risk of unexpected costs popping up, Jaggi says joint-ventures are the best way to get into such projects.

“If you have a good plan, good location and a good project lined up you will always find investors,” he says. 

“If 20 to 30 per cent of the area is already developed, you know it’s headed towards something and there’s room for growth.”

Paul Shikanai, owner of Regency Property Management and Real Estate in Regina, advises investors to be financially creative when undertaking such projects and do not undertake any unnecessary costs.

“I’ve seen people put a lot of money into it and it’s hard to get that return,” he says. “You don’t need to put in a granite countertop. You don’t need a beautiful tile on the floor.”


Daily Market Update

Written by  Steve Randall

At last some data on foreign investors… Calgary condo sales boom… And students hit by rentals shortage…

9217346f41a5b7e8e45bd1d2bf97a850 LChinese connection to Vancouver housing

A real estate company in Vancouver has provided a snapshot that much of the available data does not. Macdonald Realty says that more than a third of the buyers of single-family detached homes that it sold last year have a connection to mainland China. The company says that those purchasers paid more money for their homes too, paying over $2 million compared to the $1.4m average. Dan Scarrow from the company says that despite the large volumes of buyers and cash from China, he has not seen much evidence of the controversial practice of overseas investors buying, but not residing here. There are many realtors who are already, or are planning to, actively target overseas investors, especially the Chinese. Some have opened offices in China or undertake marketing initiatives to attract buyers from the country. Read the full story.

Condo resales booming in Calgary

Condos are king in Calgary with sales up 20 per cent year over year and no sign of that abating. Linda Lam of Sotherby’s International says that people like the condo lifestyle; the convenience, location, security and amenities. She says that the city is popular and the relative affordability of condos in Calgary compared to some other markets is driving demand. Ann-Marie Lurie CREB says that with the rental market being so tight many are realising that they can afford to buy. Resales and sales of new condos and townhouse condos are trending up and construction in the sector is working hard to keep pace. Read the full story.

Students seek housing solutions

They’re about to head back to school and for many first year university students the accommodation choice is easy; the dorms. For those heading back to college though they are often seeking a bit of independence and that is presenting challenges in many areas. The rental markets are tight in a lot of our major cities and many students are finding that they can’t find anywhere affordable to live. For those who rented last year, the leases may be ending and not being renewed at the same rates. An option for some families is for mom and dad to buy an investment property. Their kids get to use it while studying and in three or four years’ time they can sell or put it on the rental market.Read the full story.

Construction obstruction

There’s a lot of pressure to get started in those building projects and sometimes things get overlooked. On one Toronto street corner pedestrians have been wondering where the crossing signal and timer has gone. It’s still there actually, but obscured by a construction hoarding for a new condo development. Read the full story.

 

***Do you want to learn more about small property development? The September issue of Canadian Real Estate Wealth features a comprehensive step-by-step guide of what is involved in small property development. Investors reveal the secrets to successfully undertaking such projects, while city planners and lawyers offer exclusive advice on how to avoid unnecessary costs and headaches. The magazine will be on newsstands this week or subscribehere to avail of a special deal today.

Market Rally And Existing Sell Signals

x-factorMarket Rally And Existing Sell Signals

Since the beginning of August, the markets have staged a strong rebound, which is abnormal for this time of year, as worries about geopolitical risk were dismissed and the Federal Reserve continued to confirm their ultra-accommodative policies going forward. This rally has obviously spurred many questions asking if the rally had reversed the “sell signal.”

The short answer is “No.” As shown in the chart above the sell signals are still in place. However, if the rally continues into next week, and is fairly robust, the signal will likely be reversed.

>> Read more here

Meanwhile…Back At The Ranch
The expected rally has now occurred with the markets breaking out to new highs. This suggests, that for RIGHT NOW, the current bull market trend continues to remain firmly entrenched. As I stated above, the ongoing injections of liquidity by the Federal Reserve continues to create an artificial support to stock prices. Also, artificially low interest rates have provided corporations with sufficient leverage to increase share repurchases which has been a major driver of asset prices over the last couple of years in particular. (Share buybacks are being used to artificially boost profits per share for reporting purposes.)

>> Read more here

Preparing To Reverse Course
Those two inputs, liquidity and stock buy backs, are now ending which begins to put the current bull market trend at some risk. However, in the short term, as stated, the trend remains in place so we need to act accordingly by reducing the cash reserves raised over the last couple of weeks and increasing equity exposure opportunistically.

>> Read more here

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