Posted by Andrew McGuire - Agility Forex
on
Wednesday, 7 January 2015 13:29
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.1818-1.1864
FX markets were fairly choppy in Asia and then simmered down during the European session. However, weaker than expected Eurozone inflation data placed renewed pressure on EURUSD. The oil slide slid to a halt and WTI is up modestly ($48.24) and Brent is still above the psychologically important $50.00/bbl level.
This morning’s stronger-than-expected ADP employment report (Actual 241k vs. 225K expected) provided further support to the US dollar on hopes that Friday’s NFP report would surprise to the upside.
USDCAD suffered a one-two blow on the back of the stronger ADP data and a soft Merchandise Trade report.
USDCAD technical Outlook
The 2015 uptrend is intact while trading above 1.1810 with a break of the intraday high at 1.1865 suggesting further gains to 1.1930 and then 1.2000. A move below 1.1810 will see a retest of support at 1.1760 and maybe 1.1720
Range for the day 1.1810-1.1910
Posted by Jeb Handwerger - GoldStockTrades
on
Wednesday, 7 January 2015 13:29
There is an old market saying, “As January Goes so too the Year”. Tensions between Russia and the West continue to push precious metals higher, while the equity markets such as the Dow and S&P500 are crashing. Gold climbed back above the critical $1200 mark. Once again the Greek debacle is coming back to haunt markets as investors fear another decline in the Euro. The Dow was down over 300 points yesterday as investors are beginning to brace for uncertainty from a declining oil price pushed down to punish Putin and his friends.
As expected the end of tax loss selling should support a rally in the beaten down junior miners. We could witness a powerful January Effect where the small caps outperform. A break above $1240 in gold could really ignite renewed buying across the sector.
Larger Image
Investors should specifically watch out for breaks of critical moving averages such as the fifty day moving average (50 DMA). A break above the line indicates a potential change in trend. The junior gold miners (GDXJ) have broken above the 50 DMA for the first time in four months. This is happening in January which is usually a sign for a positive year. This means the probability of a change of trend has increased. Confirmation of a major bottom would be a break of November highs at $30.
Now until at least March when PDAC begins in Toronto is a very favorable season to watch the junior mining stocks.
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Posted by Visual Graphic
on
Wednesday, 7 January 2015 0:06
In the financial markets, everything makes sense in hindsight. While the narrative had continued since the 2008 Financial Crisis that energy prices were rising and there was nothing to slow them down, it only took a small crack in the armour to send oil tumbling down by about 50% since the 2014 summer peak.
This infographic video from CNN Money helps put the sudden and inevitable oil plunge in perspective. In short, it is a combination of slowing demand (stemming from China’s growth slowdown, the EU’s stagnation, and America shaking off its addiction to oil) and oversupply caused by new shale technology and OPEC keeping production constant.
Lower oil prices create some relief for consumers at the pump, but also create their own array of problems. Losses of jobs, especially around more expensive shale and oil sand production, will partly counterbalance the gains from the additional $60 billion in consumer discretionary income in 2015. Energy companies also struggle at such prices.
Click for Larger Chart & Video
- In late 2013, I predicted the Fed would taper its QE program to zero, and the first taper would cause gold to rally, stunning the Western gold community. I also predicted the taper would turn the US stock market into a “wet noodle”. That’s what happened.
- In 2015, I expect the Fed to hike rates sooner than most analysts expect, and I’m predicting that gold rallies on these rate hikes, and global stock markets take a horrific beating. I expect the stock markets of India and China to recover from that beating, but not the American market.
- Despite yesterday’s mini-crash, I don’t think the American stock market is pricing in the reality of the coming rate hikes.
- Please click here now. That’s the daily Dow chart, and it’s off to a terrible start this year.
- The “January indicator” that I use focuses on the first week of trading during each year. If the Dow ends that first week on the downside, it can indicate the entire year will be negative.
- That’s because how the Dow trades during the first week of January is a very good barometer of how institutional money managers are adding or withdrawing risk capital, with a one year outlook. So far, their outlook is very negative.
- Please click here now. That’s the monthly Dow chart. I would not be a buyer of the US stock market, unless the Dow declined to the 14,000 area, and even then I’d only be a light buyer.
- Please click here now. I’ve argued for years that the US government is more interested in the corporate stock market than the real unemployment rate, because large corporations provide a lot of money to get politicians elected. Those corporations benefit from higher stock prices. Some analysts believe the stock market can only crash when the public is heavily involved, but I would argue that the hedge funds are the “new era” public, just as robots and computers are becoming the workers of the new era.
- Rig counts are beginning to drop in US oil fields, and large layoffs are likely coming, yet the government continues to boast that more restaurant jobs are being created. Clearly, America is in no condition to endure an economic downturn, yet a downturn is coming, almost as surely as night follows day.
- When the next crisis unfolds, I expect the Fed to quietly ask the Chinese central bank to revalue gold, by announcing a major gold buy program. This would allow China’s currency to become a competitor with the dollar.
- Equally importantly, it would allow the Fed to hide the key role that a higher gold price would play, in managing US government debt that is clearly out of control.
- Please click here now. That’s the daily oil chart. The price has arrived at my short term $49 target area.
- I think oil may trade under $30. Rate hikes and a peak in the US business cycle could keep it there for a long time, which is fabulous news for gold mining companies.
- At the start of December, the Indian central bank killed the 80-20 gold export rule, and gold immediately soared about $100! There are strong rumours that the Modi government may be only about 48 hours away from making another major announcement, directly relating to gold.
- “The Union Commerce Secretary Rajeev Kher has scheduled a meeting on Jan. 7, which will be attended by representatives from country’s finance ministry, the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). According to reports, the government intends to extend the ‘Make in India’ campaign into gold sector.” –Resource Investor News, January 5, 2015.
- Indian gold demand is the elephant in the gold price discovery room, and that elephant is beginning to “stand up and take charge”. “The recent survey conducted by the country’s leading credit rating agency ICRA Ltd shows that the gold jewelry demand in Indian domestic market is poised to witness 10% growth in 2015.” – Scrap Monster News, January 5, 2015.
- Dramatically lower fuel costs, coupled with higher demand for gold from China and India appear to be creating a huge “win-win” situation, for Western gold stock investors!
- Please click here now. That’s the daily GDX chart, and the fundamental price drivers are creating a very bullish technical picture. Note the buy signal in play on my 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator. Volume is bullish. A two day close above $20.50 could ignite a powerful rally, to the $28 area.
- Please click here now. That’s the GDXJ chart. I think most analysts are underestimating the dramatic effect that low fuel prices and surging Chindian demand can have on the price of junior gold stocks. Naked shorting should soon be replaced by “institutional respect” for gold stocks, and that includes the junior sector.
- The reason most gold bears have been so wrong about gold crashing in 2014 and 2015, is because they are excessively focused on technical analysis and the US economy. They also appear to be almost clueless about key events occurring in India and China.
- Going to war with only one weapon is an act of madness. It’s the same thing with investing in gold. Investors who stare at charts and just trade gold rather than embrace it as the ultimate asset, are likely to fail miserably, in the long term. That’s because charts don’t make fundamentals. Fundamentals make charts. The bears learned that the hard way, when the Indian central bank killed the 80-20 rule. They may be about to get another brutal lesson in gold market fundamentals, if the Modi government openly embraces the gold jewellery industry in the next 48 hours.
- The gold jewellery sector is the second largest employer in India, and gold is a key part of the Hindu religion. Simply put, the Western gold bears and their ridiculous chart patterns are no match for the “shock and awe” power of a billion Hindus, whose thirst for gold is…. insatiable!
- Please click here now. That’s the daily gold chart. Note the Stochastics oscillator buy signal in play now. Note the “bull era channel” that I highlighted. In the very short term gold will continue to move erratically, in response to key economic data like the upcoming jobs report on Friday. In the bigger picture, the rise and consistency of Chindian demand should create a stable and modestly rising price trajectory.
- Please click here now . That’s the daily chart for silver. Note the nice buy signal in play on my Stochastics oscillator. The bull channel is steeper than the gold channel, and that’s normal. Silver tends to rise more strongly than gold does, when both are in an uptrend. Bullion expert Koos Jansen has apparently reported that silver trading volume on the Shanghai market exceeded that on the COMEX in 2014. I’ve predicted that gold will meet the same “fabulous fate” by 2017. Silver’s price tends to be determined by the gold price, and as gold trading volume in Shanghai (and Dubai) begins to overwhelm the COMEX, both gold and silver investors can probably look forward to many happy years, of higher prices!
Jan 6, 2015
Stewart Thomson
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Posted by Olivia D'Orazio - Canadian Real Estate Wealth
on
Tuesday, 6 January 2015 21:31
Condos in 2015 Are Going Up Up Up
To make a prediction for Canada’s crazy housing market would be, well, crazy, but like RE/MAX Condos Plus, some agents believe it’s safe to say high-rise living will continue to post strong gains in major markets – especially for larger family-friendly units.
“I think this will be another solid year for [condos],” says Matt Elkind, an agent with The Condo Store in Toronto. “The demand is going to continue. That trend away from houses, just with the prices of housing going up dramatically, more people are happy being downtown and living the condo lifestyle.”
RE/MAX Condos Plus said it expects demand for larger units – particularly those with two bedrooms or more – to increase, especially for two of Canada’s most active demographics moving up and down the property ladder.
“It’s two things really,” says Armand Gilks, a sales rep with Bosley Real Estate in Toronto. “One is people downsizing, and the other is people currently in condos and, as their need for more space as their families grow, many are opting for larger condos rather than low-rise housing.”
Immigration is also expected to boost condo demand in 2015. The RE/MAX report suggests Toronto requires more than 35,000 units annually to keep up with in-migration – meaning the 20,000 units currently being completed will lead to a shortage.
“I do see demand for larger units growing,” Gilks says, “and this is especially as the condo market matures.”
More:
Is it too late to get into Hamilton’s hot housing market?
Investor returns will be down in 2015
