Asset protection
As people continue to digest breaking news from around the world, today the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year-old Richard Russell, warned of a world on the edge of chaos. Russell also spoke about his memories from one of the most important days in world history nearly 70 years ago.
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The Western powers are in serious trouble. The once great British Anglo-American Empire, the envy of the world, now resembles more of a phony Hollywood Set backed by a mountain of worthless derivatives and debt. The only thing holding up the Western Financial Empire’s House of Cards is faith that market will continue to believe increasing debt and monetary printing are practical solutions for long-term prosperity.
I imagine there is a limit to the level of INSANITY these markets can reach. Here is one chart that perfectly describes how this insanity has impacted investors in the top Western countries:

According to the data put out by the official sources from Australia, Canada and the United States, these three countries had combined gold production of 642 metric tons (mt) in 2014. Australia was the number one producer at 275 mt (Australia Resources & Energy Quarterly Report – March 2014), the United States came in second (USGS estimate), and Canada placed last at 152 mt (Natural Resources Canada Monthly Production Statistics 2014).
If we look at the bar on the right side of the chart, these three countries exported an estimated 1,057 mt of gold, or 415 mt more than they produced. This is an amazing amount of gold exports when we consider China and Russia hold onto the majority of their domestic gold production.
The data for Australia’s total gold exports of 287 mt in 2014 comes from the Australian Resources & Energy Quarterly Report, but the figures for the United States and Canada were my estimates based on data I received from the USGS and GFMS 2014 Gold Survey.
The Western Powers have been so successful at brainwashing their citizens into believing PAPER ASSETS are wealth, GOLD the HIGHEST QUALITY store of value, is exported overseas. Makes perfect sense… aye?
The chart above doesn’t include gold imports into these three countries. I estimate that total gold imports into Australia, Canada and the United States will be in the neighborhood of 585 mt in 2014. This would give us a surplus of 170 mt of gold (642 mt supply + 585 mt imports = 1,227 mt total – 1,057 exports = 170 mt).
The World Gold Council stated that total U.S. Gold consumption in 2014 was 179 mt (132 mt of jewelry and 47 mt of physical investment). So, here we can see that the United States consumed more than the total 170 mt gold surplus from these three countries.
Yes, I realize this doesn’t include gold recycling into the equation, but it is quite alarming to see the top three Western gold producers exporting more gold than they produce and 70% of their total gold imports.
When the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Market finally collapse, Western investors will be the last to know just how silly it was to export all that HIGH QUALITY GOLD overseas.
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Bad Weather To Blame?
Recent economic numbers and earnings projections have come in on the soft side. If the rationale below holds water, we have nothing to worry about. From MarketWatch:
Once again, the U.S. economy appears to have slowed in the first quarter. And once again the fault has fallen on several major snowstorms and periods of frigid temperatures that afflicted much of the country in late January and February. That kept consumers away from retail stores during typically busy shopping hours and prevented builders from starting new construction projects, among other things.
Objective View Of Market Risk
There are many ways to attempt to quantify risk in the stock market. Regardless of whether or not you believe in technical analysis, we know one thing with 100% certainty…we cannot start a new bear market until stocks make a lower high and a lower low. For example, the weekly moving averages shown below made a discernible lower high (near point A) followed by a discernible lower low (near point B) when the S&P 500 was still trading over 1,400 (it eventually fell to 666).

How Does The Same Chart Look Today?
Instead of making a lower low, the same moving averages recently broke above a downward-sloping trendline (near point A below), made a higher high (point B), and last week posted another higher high (point C). Recent market action tells us the aggregate opinion of all market participants is much more favorable today than it was in late 2007.
A More Detailed Look
This week’s video looks at the stock market from numerous perspectives to assess risk and potential reward.
Investment Implications – The Weight Of The Evidence
Our market model will begin to reduce equity exposure when the hard data and observable evidence begins to deteriorate. The lower low in December 2007 is an example of observable bearish evidence. Based on the evidence in hand, we continue to hold an equity-heavy allocation. With inflation data, durable goods, and GDP coming later this week, we will observe with a flexible and open mind.
Oil companies continue to get burned by low oil prices, but the pain is bleeding over into the financial industry. Major banks are suffering huge losses from both directly backing some struggling oil companies, but also from buying high-yield debt that is now going sour.
The Wall Street Journal reported that tens of millions of dollars have gone up in smoke on loans made to the energy industry by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and UBS. Loans issued to oil and gas companies have looked increasingly unappetizing, making it difficult for the banks to sell them on the market.
To make matters worse, much of the credit issued by the big banks have been tied to oil field services firms, rather than drillers themselves – companies that provide equipment, housing, well completions, trucks, and much more. These companies sprung up during the boom, but they are the first to feel the pain when drilling activity cuts back. With those firms running out of cash to pay back lenders, Wall Street is having a lot of trouble getting rid of its pile of bad loans.
Robert Cohen, a loan-portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, told the Wall Street Journal that he declined to purchase energy loans from Citibank. “We’ve been pretty shy about dipping back into the energy names,” he said. “We’re taking a wait-and-see attitude.”
But some big investors jumped back into the high-yield debt markets in February as it appeared that oil prices stabilized and were even rebounding. However, since March 4 when oil prices began to fall again, an estimated $7 billion in high-yield debt from distressed energy companies was wiped out, according to Bloomberg.
The high-yield debt market is being overrun by the energy industry. High-yield energy debt has swelled from just $65.6 billion in 2007 up to $201 billion today. That is a result of shaky drillers turning to debt markets more and more to stay afloat, as well as once-stable companies getting downgraded into junk territory. Yields on junk energy debt have hit 7.44 percent over government bonds, more than double the rate from June 2014.
An estimated $1 trillion in loans were provided to the energy industry over the past decade, with most of that passed off to other investors. The practice is common, but starts to fall apart when the quality of loans starts to deteriorate. Banks like Citi have been sitting on bad loans, hoping for a rebound. But with oil prices dipping once again, big banks are starting to eat the losses. Some bad loans were sold off in mid-March at 65 cents on the dollar, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 18.
Souring debt comes at a time when oil and gas firms are also issuing new equity at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Drillers are desperate for cash, and issuing new stock, while not optimal because it dilutes the value of all outstanding shares, is preferable to taking on mountains of new debt. An estimated $8 billion in new equity was issued in the first quarter of 2015 in the energy sector, the highest quarterly total in more than ten years. But, falling oil prices have caused share prices to tank, reducing the value of new shares sold, and ultimately, the amount of cash that can be raised.
Big Finance’s struggle to unload some bad energy loans will ripple right back to the energy industry. If financial institutions cannot find buyers, they will be a lot less likely to issue new credit. That means that oil and gas companies in need of new cash injections may have trouble finding willing partners. Once access to cash is cut off, the worst-off drillers could be forced into a liquidity crisis.





