Asset protection

The “Deep State” Is Now in Charge

But when he is disposed of foreign enemies by conquest or treaty, and there is nothing to fear from them, then he is always stirring up some war or other, in order that the people may require a leader. 

– Plato on tyrants, The Republic

Bill-Bonner
This is the last in our series on how America’s money, economy and government have changed since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement and the end of gold-backed money. 

Today, we keep the focus on government… and what it has become. 

The period is hardly coincidental: On August 15, 1971, President Nixon hammered the last nail in the coffin of honest money. 

It was not the only reason for the profound changes that followed. There was also the opening up of Communist China to capitalism, the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of the Internet, to name just a few. 

But the new credit-based money system was the least obvious change… and probably the most important.

Caution: “Deep State” at Work

The credit-based dollar brought about a new economy. It changed the way people thought and the way their government operated. 

Now, deep pools of money determine which candidates are presented to voters. 

And there is a new branch of government: the “Deep State.” It is not mentioned in the Constitution. And it operates above and beyond the visible process of democratic government. 

Americans voted for Barack Obama in 2008 because they wanted a change from the Bush-era policies. But nothing changed. 

Why? 

Because the fix was in… 

Candidate Obama was a critic of the war in Iraq; he promised to bring the Pentagon under control. But under President Obama, “security” spending in the US rose to its highest level since World War II. 

President Eisenhower warned us about this. He called it the “military-industrial” complex. This was the “Deep State” at work. 

There are always some people in a society who are more ready than others to bully, steal and make jackasses of themselves. 

As 18th-century political philosopher William Godwin observed, if a government has any legitimate purpose at all it is to keep those people from doing harm to their neighbors. But over time, they infest government and its related industries. 

Then instead of keeping these pests under control, government gives them authority… funding even a kind of ersatz respectability. Their predations, illusions and vanities become public policy.

Like a Manure Pile to a Herd of Pigs

Diary reader describes what happens next:

Children can no longer sell lemonade. One cannot control his/her own puddle in their yard. Our communications (Internet and phones) are being monitored. Our police forces are no longer there to help us, but are militarized and react to every situation as if it were a deadly threat. Our government is now trying to control every aspect of our lives. The most recent of course is medical – but don’t get me started there.

All major industries – education, health care, finance – attract these bullies and jackasses. But the Deep State calls to them like a manure pile to a herd of pigs. Soon, they are rooting and wallowing in the biggest heap of misspent resources in all of history. 

Today, its agents bark at you to take off your belt in airports. Try to dig a pond in your backyard… or let your teenage boy work on the family farm… and they want to make a federal case of it. 

They snoop and spy, looking for secrets they can hold over you. They tax. They regulate. And they control. 

But it is they who are out of control… and unstoppable.

America’s Gulag Industry

According to US civil rights attorney Harvey Silverglate, the typical American commits three felonies a day in his own home without realizing it. 

Former Virginia senator Jim Webb describes the police state that results: 

We have 5% of the world’s population and 25% of the world’s known prison population. We have an incarceration rate that is five times as high as the average incarceration rate of the rest of the world. We have a system of mass incarceration. 

There are only two possibilities here: Either we have the most evil people on Earth. Or we are doing something dramatically wrong in terms of how we approach the issue of criminal justice.

What Webb doesn’t mention is that putting other people in jail pays – for some. America’s gulag industry makes money on every prisoner and lobbies for harsher minimum sentences. 

It pays so well that, at home and abroad, the profiteers don’t merely “go abroad in search of monsters to slay,” as one of America’s founding fathers, John Adams, warned against. They create monsters. 

Did you know that the FBI entices, ensnares and enables young men to plan acts of “terrorism”? 

Recently, FBI agents arrested three sad-sack men in Brooklyn and charged them with conspiring to travel to Syria to fight for ISIS. 

None of the men could have done so without FBI help. They were broke. And one was unable to follow through because his mom had taken away his passport. 

These were the perfect terrorists – created, nurtured and funded by the FBI.

A Super Bowl with Mortal Stakes

Overseas, the situation is much the same. In the absence of real enemies, the Deep State has created phony ones. A Bonner & Partners subscriber explains:

The US went to war in Afghanistan to kick out a batch of radical Islamist thugs. Now the whole Mideast is fighting a batch of much more radical Islamist thugs, who have the advantage of large quantities of US-supplied arms. 

The last that I heard the US was still providing arms to the Islamist thugs in Syria and complaining when these arms are used in Iraq. 

Ron Paul recently wrote that none of the military adventures the US has been involved in in the last 25 years had done any good at all. I do not know why he didn´t extend it to 50 or 60 years. 

There is no question about US military power but there are a lot of very serious questions about its choice of targets. On balance it seems clear that the US does more harm than good in its foreign affairs.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Deep State faced its biggest threat: It no longer had a plausible enemy. 

Since then, it has brought the US jackboot down on a series of pseudo-enemies – all laughably inferior to the Pentagon. 

But with all its firepower… all its superior military technology… and all its trillions of dollars in spending… did a single one of America’s wars since the end of the Cold War result in a clear or honorable victory? 

Instead, one fumbled mess led to another. Enemies became angels; allies became devils. 

You’d think this would bring the American public to its senses. Maybe all this spending, blustering and bombing is not really paying off? Maybe it is creating more enemies than it defeats? 

But that is just the point: For the plain people, a war is little more than a Super Bowl with mortal stakes. They holler and hoot for the Homeland team. They salute their heroes and hate the enemy, even when they’re not sure who the enemy is. 

Those who do the thinking, on the other hand, have another agenda. They are just as happy with a defeat as a victory. 

Victory, and the peace that followed World War II, almost put them out of business. It is war, not peace, that pays. And war pays well.

The US “security” industry has about $1 trillion a year in spending power. You can buy a lot of votes with that kind of money. And you can build a lot of mansions in the Virginia suburbs. 

The Deep State is now in charge. The fix is in. 

Regards,

Bill

 

Market Insight:

The Best Performing Stock Market on the Planet Is…

by Chris Hunter, Editor-in-Chief, Bonner & Partners

If you still believe economic growth fuels stock market gains, take a look at China…

The Chinese stock market has been the world’s best performer over the last nine months. 

The Shanghai Composite Index – which tracks all shares available to foreigners and Chinese citizens listed on China’s main Shanghai Stock Exchange – is up 81% in dollar terms since the start of last June.

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But over that time, Chinese economic growth has slowed. 

Even going by the official figures – which flatter growth rates – the Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate in 24 years in 2014. Official GDP grew 7.4% last year – down from 7.7% in 2013. 

And this year, the Chinese government has set an even lower growth target of 7%. 

So what has been driving the surge in Chinese stocks, if not higher economic growth? 

Due to strict financial controls, Chinese citizens have limited choices when it comes to putting their savings to work. With property prices heading south, investors are switching into stocks. 

More important, Chinese stocks are cheap. 

Even after the big run-up in prices, the Chinese stock market trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 versus a 12-month trailing P/E of 20 for the S&P 500. 

That means a dollar of recorded Chinese corporate earnings costs half as much as a dollar of recorded US corporate earnings. 

Why does this matter? 

Because as Bill recently told paid-up Bill Bonner Letter subscribers, “The world turns. Cheap markets tend to become more expensive. Expensive markets tend to become cheap.”

 

P.S. If you’re not already signed up for The Bill Bonner Letter, you’re missing out. Bill’s new project is becoming hugely popular with Diary readers. Get your risk-free trial here

 

 

imagesIf the plan of the Troika was to starve the Tsipras government and produce either capitulation or a loss of domestic credibility, their effort appears to be on track.

FAZ reported that the Greek government is set to run out of funds by April 8. Tonight, the Financial Times reports that Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras sent a desperate-sounding letter to Angela Merkel on March 15. That appears to have led Merkel to meet with him at an EU conference last week and arrange for a one-on-one session tomorrow. 

From the Financial Times account:

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has warned Angela Merkel that it will be “impossible” for Athens to service debt obligations due in the coming weeks if the EU fails to distribute any short-term financial assistance to the country…

In the letter, Mr Tsipras warns that his government will be forced to choose between paying off loans, owed primarily to the International Monetary Fund, or continue social spending. He blames European Central Bank limits on Greece’s ability to issue short-term debt as well as eurozone bailout authorities’ refusal to disburse any aid before Athens adopts a new round of economic reforms.

….continue reading HERE

 

 

 

 

Outside the Box: US Dollar: American Phoenix

 “Just a little patience, yeah…”

– Guns N’ Roses

maxresdefaultLastweek the FOMC essentially removed forward guidance and placed all options back on the table, and at the end of the day they’ve opened the door for further tightening. As Yellen recently explained in advance, the removal of the word patience from the Fed’s guidance amounts to fair warning to the rest of the world’s central banks: an interest rate hike is on the horizon. Govern your actions accordingly. (My personal guess, for those interested, is September, with the Fed proceeding exceedingly slowly and cautiously thereafter.) 

The bigger story here is the sustained strength of the US dollar, which has traded wildly in the FOMC’s wake. A correction to the one-way trading prior to the meeting was well overdue and could last some time, but then the dollar strength will resume. (Euro) Parity or Bust! My young colleague Worth Wray and I have been writing for some time about the risks this trend poses, to emerging markets in particular, and now it seems that nightmare could  happen sooner rather than later.

We’re already seeing profound FX pressures on countries like Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, among many others; but, while clearly exacerbated by the strong dollar and/or weak commodity prices, recent stress in various emerging markets appears to have more to do with internal troubles than external shocks. Nevertheless, the dollar’s strength has not been fully absorbed by EM economies, so a BIG, broad-based, dollar-driven adjustment may be yet to come.

Until this Wednesday’s FOMC press conference with Janet Yellen, the growing consensus was that an eventual interest rate hike would lead to an even stronger USD. Now it seems most observers, including our own Jared Dillian, are doubting that a rate hike will come this summer… or anytime soon.

Worth and I have a different view. We believe that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer has carefully laid out a framework for interpreting the FOMC’s opaque communications as the committee moves closer to a rate hike. In a speech last October, Fischer made it clear that the Fed would “recognize the effect of (its) actions abroad and … minimize the negative spillovers (those actions will likely have) on the global economy” by clearly communicating its policy intentions in advance. If you read between the lines, the only way the Fed can give foreign central banks the opportunity to prepare for the likely FX shock that would follow a rate hike is to send the message in a way that the market does not immediately understand as overtly hawkish. This week’s announcement makes perfect sense when looked at through that lens.

Translation: while the FOMC’s decision to hike interest rates remains data-dependent, the Fed has opened the door for further tightening as soon as June 2015. That could be terrible news for a number of emerging markets, but none of those countries can credibly complain that the Fed is responsible as capital flees their economies in search of safety and more-attractive risk-adjusted rates. Emerging markets are not a homogenous group, but even the best positioned countries like the Philippines are at risk in the event of a broad-based contagion. We’ve seen that dynamic play out repeatedly in the 1980s, the 1990s, and the 2000s. It may be time for another hurricane.

With our expectations on the table, Worth and I still have to ask… what if we’re wrong? What if the dollar doesn’t strengthen? We’ll consider that scenario in today’s OTB.

It’s a real pleasure for me to introduce today’s author, because this OTB is also the perfect opportunity for an announcement I’ve been wanting to make for some time: Jawad Mian has brought his excellent research service, Stray Reflections, to Mauldin Economics. You can learn more about his service here. His “transparent hedge fund” approach to investment research is unique, well-reasoned, and decidedly non-consensus. And his prose is unrivaled.

Today’s OTB is taken from Jawad’s top 10 investment themes. These are the themes around which he builds his portfolio. I agree with many of his ideas, but I offer up this particular piece as an example of one where I remain unconvinced, if not in outright disagreement. Yet… Jawad makes such a strong argument for the dollar’s weakening. We have exchanged emails and dueling notes of late (but in a very collegial fashion).

I have to admit, I am NEVER comfortable when this much of the crowd agrees with my view, as they seem to now. A serious correction of the recent trend in dollar strength is clearly due, but what if – as Jawad argues – we are seeing a major shift to an entirely new macro regime?

It’s worth noting that Jawad made this weaker dollar call several months ago. HSBC analysts and others are beginning to agree with him. The US dollar is the single most important factor in global macroeconomics; so do your homework, consider the antithesis to your closely held beliefs, and ignore Jawad’s thoughtful analysis at your own risk.

I was in Switzerland for the last week, meeting clients and speaking in Zürich. I kept asking the question, “Where is Draghi going to get €60 trillion in European bonds, month after month?” He is reportedly already behind the curve for this month’s purchases. I get no satisfactory (to me) answer. Maybe he does, but he wants to buy more than governments are issuing, and no pension company or insurance company is going to be able to sell him their bonds if they have a positive yield. Maybe he gets creative in what he buys. I will write more about this over the next weekend, but we are in the Twilight Zone for bonds. French yields are negative out to five years, and to get 1.5% you have to buy a 50-year French bond? Can anyone do that and seriously be considered a prudent fiduciary? Have you looked at France’s balance sheet and total commitments, not to mention the country’s politics? And don’t even get me started on the rest of Europe. Half of Northern Europe’s debt has negative yields.

I had the very real privilege of having dinner with William White, former chief economist of the Bank of International Settlements and currently consultant to seemingly everyone. He will be at my conference this year as the final speaker, and it will be a very impactful speech. On several occasions during dinner, I got him to agree to say in public what he said in private Tuesday night. I have long been a fan of his candor and style, and that evening I felt like a student. He is now my favorite (ex) central banker.

I want to thank so many of you who wrote to me expressing your condolences about my Mother. It meant a lot. Truly.

My sister flew in from Victoria Island, where she lives with her sons. I cornered her the first night she was there and told her that her other brother wanted us to sing at the graveside the lullabies that mother sang to us as children when she put us to bed (and which we all vividly remember). I tried to convey the clear impression that I thought it was a bad idea, but I was amazed that she agreed with him. “I think it is a marvelous idea, and mother would agree. You will do it.” How can you tell your little sister no when she looks at you that way? So, there I was, singing in the rain, or trying to. I don’t think I actually made it to the end of “Tura Lura Lural.” In the moment it was much more than an old Irish lullaby.

Your doing a lot of pondering analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
subscribers@mauldineconomics.com

Precious metals have rebounded strongly over the past week, following comments from the Federal Reserve. While the FED dropped the word “patient” from their statement last week in relation to raising interest rates, Yellen clarified that removing the term patient does not mean the Fed is impatient. To the contrary, the FED plans to remain “highly accommodative” even after the first rate hike occurs.

….continue reading & view chart HERE

Stock Trading Alert: Stocks Sold Off And Retraced Last Week’s Advance, Will They Continue Down

Stock Trading Alert originally published on March 26, 2015, 7:30 AM:


Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.6% and 2.3% on Wednesday, retracing last week’s move up, as investors intensified their selloff. The S&P 500 index broke below support level of 2,080-2,090, as it got further away from late February all-time high at 2,119.59. The nearest important support level is at 2,040-2,050, marked by early March local lows, among others. for now, it looks like some further medium-term consolidation following October-November rally:

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Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.6- 1.0%. The European stock market indexes have lost 1.2-1.5% so far. Investors will now wait for the Initial Claims number release at 7:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is within an intraday downtrend as it trades below yesterday’s low. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,050. On the other hand, potential support level is at 2,030, as the 15-minute chart shows:

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The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday downtrend, following a breakout below the level of 4,300. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,300-4,320, and support level is at 4,250-4,260, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

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Concluding, the broad stock market accelerated its short-term decline yesterday, as it retraced most of last week’s move up. For now, it looks like some further medium-term consolidation, following last year’s October-November rally. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

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