Global stock markets were higher again last week…Europe and Asia (especially China) have rallied strongly the past two months while US markets have gone broadly sideways. Chinese “investors” have been opening 1.5 million new stock brokerage accounts every WEEK for the past two months…the Shanghai Index is up ~37% since early February…up 68% in six months…the German DAX is up 28% YTD…while the S+P 500 is up only 2.5% YTD…the VIX at a 5 month low.

European sovereign bonds continue to rally…with the ECB on a bond buying spree. Yields on gov’t bonds issued by nearly every European country are lower or substantially lower than yields on US Treasuries. For instance, 10 year Treasuries yield 1.95%, compared to 0.23% in Holland, 1.2% in Spain, 0.16% in Germany, 0.36% in Sweden.

Divergence: Markets psychology continues to be driven by divergent Central Bank policies. The USA is on a tightening path while the Rest of The World is easing. This divergence (and local Central Bank money printing)  is the reason that foreign stock and bond markets are significantly outperforming American markets.

Currencies: this divergence is also boosting the US Dollar against other currencies. The US Dollar Index rose ~3% last week while the Euro was down ~3.5%.

Recent weak US economic data: triggered a mild correction in the US Dollar from mid-March to Easter…after it had soared to 12 year highs. The recent weakness caused market psychology to consider that the Fed, 1) will not raise interest rates, 2) will raise rates at a later date, 3) will be very timid about the speed and the amount of any subsequent rate increases. In addition to the mild correction in the USD, there was a rally in US bonds and a rally in the US Dollar price of commodities…especially gold and crude oil.

Our view: Our primary market opinion is that the US Dollar will continue higher relative to most other currencies…because there is a significant divergence between America and the rest of the World…in terms of economic growth and opportunity and therefore in terms of monetary policy. We expect this divergence to increase…we expect that the recent economic weakness was temporary and that the American economy will be stronger in the quarters ahead…with market psychology then beginning to imagine that the Fed may raise interest rates more (rather than less) aggressively.

We expect the global supply of crude oil to overwhelm demand. We expect WTI prices will drop.

We thought we saw signs of weakness in the broad US stock market…however we only took small short positions…out of respect for the powerful uptrend that has been in place for the past six years…and we are now close to ‘throwing in the towel” on this trade. We think the stock market will fall if/when the market perceives Fed tightening to be more aggressive than current expectations…but timing is everything in trading and we appear to have “jumped the gun” on this trading idea….although…the runaway Chinese market sure looks like the sort of thing you see before a big break!  

Short term trading: We remain short of CAD, WTI Crude and US stocks. We added to our short CAD positions last week and established new positions short the Yen.

The recent stock market volatility has caused the major averages to lose nearly all their gains for 2015. However, it is clear stock prices are still extremely overvalued by virtually every metric, especially when viewed in the absence of GDP and earnings growth.

For starters, the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio on the S&P 500 is currently 27, whereas the normal level for this longer-term valuation metric is just 15. Also, the ratio of Total Market Cap to GDP is currently at 125%. This reading, which measures the value of all stock prices in relation to the economy, is the second highest in history outside of the tech bubble and is far above the 110% level witnessed in 2007. And with a median PE ratio of all NYSE stocks at a record-high 22, there can”t be any doubt that stock prices are at extreme valuations.

But these lofty valuations sit atop negative earnings growth and a faltering economy. The Atlanta Fed”s GDP model currently shows Q1 2015 economic growth will come in at a paltry 0.2% annualized rate. And S&P Capital IQ predicts Q1 earnings will fall 2.9%, while also projecting Q2 earnings growth will contract 1.8%.

So how can stock prices remain at record high valuations; given the fact such levels seem egregiously ridiculous within the context of no growth? The answer is simply that central banks have given investors no other alternatives. Banks pay you zip on your deposits and sovereign debt offers little return–even when going out 10 years on the yield curve.

Central banks have forced investors to play musical chairs with their money; but this dangerous game has millions of players and just a handful of chairs. When the music finally stops investors will find that bids for stocks have become very rare.

There are three very specific conditions that will warn investors when a spike is about to be driven through this massive equity bubble — and, if heeded, will give you a chance to pounce on one of those few remaining bids for stocks at these incredible levels.

The first is a U.S. recession. To be clear, domestic growth in Q1 will already be close enough to zero to get us halfway to a recession. The carnival barkers on Wall Street have jumped on the weather excuse once again and have bought the markets of few more weeks. However, once April economic data is announced, it must clearly display to investors that first quarter”s flat GDP print was simply caused by another cold winter. If it does not, the negative earnings growth in Q1 will then be extrapolated to Q2 and will convey to investors that the Fed was unsuccessful in providing sustainable growth after 7 years of ZIRP. Now that QE is no longer levitating stocks (and the Fed is actually threatening to raise interest rates), the markets will finally succumb to the massive weight of record-high valuations that have been erroneously built on top of anticipated rapid growth that never materialized. If April”s data on Durable Goods, Industrial Production, Factory Orders or Retail Sales is reported with a minus sign, investors should run for the exit.

The second indicator that the equity bubble is about to explode will be if the Fed actually starts raising rates. Of course, some pundits will be quick to point out that just one 25bps rate hike won”t be enough to derail the equity bubble because rates will still be very low. However, the Fed will be embarking on a rate hike campaign into a market cycle of deflation and slowing growth. Normally, the Fed raises rates to combat inflation, which has started to send long-term rates much higher. But, this time around the Fed will be hiking rates just to prove it can get off the zero bound range it has been stuck on since 2008. Or, because the unemployment rate dropped below the Fed”s arbitrary, Phillips-curve line in the sand, where inflation is supposed to magically materialize. This means the Ten-year Note, which has already dropped below 2% due to deflationary forces, would most likely fall even lower. Since the Effective Fed Funds Rate is currently at .12%, it will only take a handful of 25bps rate hikes before the yield curve flattens out and banks find it unprofitable to make new loans. Once this occurs, the money supply contracts and the markets and economy go into a tailspin. Unless the Fed makes it abundantly clear that its first rate hike is not part of any protracted campaign, look for investors to quickly anticipate an inverted yield curve and to start panicking out of stocks.

Finally, the third spike for this market bubble will be if U.S. Benchmark interest rates were to rise above the 3% level. This could occur if the Fed is finally successful in creating inflation. Or, more likely, when investors lose confidence in the U.S. to easily service the debt. Total Non-financial debt has surged $9.5 trillion (30%) since the Great Recession of 2007. Any significant increase in borrowing costs would quickly derail the fragile consumer who is already suffering from a lack of real income growth. And, increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government would lead to much higher budget deficits. A Ten-year Note that eclipses 3% would quickly topple the fragile real estate market and also begin to offer significant competition for stocks. The last time U.S. rates spiked from 1.5%, to above 3% was April 2013-January 2014. And this was the real cause for GDP growth to fall to -2.1% in Q1…not the weather.

Until one of these conditions are met the markets may continue to surge further into record-bubble territory. However, investors should pay close attention to April”s economic data, the Fed”s strategy surrounding its first rate hike, and also keep a close eye on the long end of the yield curve. That is, if they want to avoid getting consumed by the third massive collapse in equity prices since 2000.