Energy & Commodities

Have Natural Gas Prices Bottomed?

Last Friday we finally got confirmation of where all the natural gas supply has been coming from as Cabot (COG) reported its earnings. Just like Chesapeake (CHK), they reduced natural gas output, but on a much grander scale. CHK has yet to report and will do so on May 6th providing even more color on the subject.

Last month they announced a 2% reduction in NGAS volumes to 1-3% for 2015 vs. 3-5%. But the ramp up of supply from Marcellus, and to a lesser extent Utica, and a corresponding flat to up rig count in natural gas rigs in those areas appears to be the reason why NGAS has crashed some 30% despite a relatively cold winter in the mid-west and East especially. The magnitude of the supply increase is simply stunning, begging the question: what was Cabot’s management thinking by increasing NGAS production in Marcellus by some 40% to 162 BCF in 1Q15 and up 12.5% sequentially from 4Q14? And, to boot, 4Q14 was up over 13% sequentially from 3Q14! 

Related: How Much Does OPEC Really Earn?

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Source: Company Data

The Marcellus region began ramping up in 2010 which has resulted in a surge in production which has probably peaked 1Q15 in terms of rate of growth. It has by far contributed to the largest increases in output and has signal handily resulted in the crash in prices.

Related: What Is Triggering Recent M&A Activity In The Energy Sector?

With spot prices hovering around $2.45/MMBTU and within 10% of the most bearish estimate targets this quarter, it seems the worst of the oversupply is behind the market especially with EPA rules forcing coal to NGAS switching in volume this summer. Coal still represents the majority of fuel used to generate electricity despite this trend.

The cut backs in production growth and higher demand will eventually balance the market which, mind you, is not that out of balance. We are still 6% or so below the 5 year storage average, but the short sightedness of traders, as was the case in oil markets, appears to have repeated again in the NGAS markets as both react to short term signals vs. discounting the fundamentals to come.

Related: Putin Betting On An Argentinian Shale Boom

We are not forecasting a bull market in natural gas by any means but on top of what was already mentioned, LNG and gas exports are rising; especially Mexican NGAS which will further tighten the market. Since traders work on what is incremental, with supply waning and demand increasing sentiment should soon reverse and prices should rise over $3.00 in 2H15. Just like in oil, NGAS prices have overshot and practically all incremental new wells ex NE are not profitable at current spot or, if they are IRRs, are under 20%.

Producers are no longer receiving NGL subsidies from high prices in areas like Eagle Ford to justify new drilling as NGL prices hover in mid-teens. One thing to watch for is the rise of oil above $60 which will open the threat to more oil coming, thus reopening the potential for more NGAS supply as a byproduct. However with futures markets net short in terms of open contracts it won’t be long that short term traders will sense the tide is turning.

By Leonard Brecken of Oilprice.com

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Definitely Not a Manic Monday

USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2132-1.2190    

USDCAD drilled through intraday support at 1.2145-50 on a tick higher in WTI oil prices to $57.49/bbl which is a bit perplexing considering the headlines.  The oil glut that is straining storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma has spread to the Permian Basin in West Texas. In addition, the Saudi deputy oil minister suggested that Saudi Arabia had no intention of curtailing production.

The first day of the last week of April started with a fizzle. New Zealand was closed for Anzac Day and Australia traded like they were, as well. Europe wasn’t much better although EURUSD did decline from the highs. Greece is still the key known unknown. The Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis appears to have upset European and IMF lenders resulting in the Greek Prime Minister reshuffling the negotiating team.

USDCAD direction remains tied to WTI oil prices and general US dollar direction. WTI prices have been rising steadily since the middle of March but gains have stalled in the $58.00-$60.00/bbl area. A break of the top will drive USDCAD to test major support in the 1.1990-1.2050 area. Wednesday could be the day, but only if the FOMC statement is considered doveish and indicates that the Fed is on hold for longer than anticipated.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from yesterday.  In fact, the 30 minute chart shown below would show a fairly stable vital signs if it was for a hospital patient. For today, the 1.2180-1.2280 range is likely to remain intact although the short term bias is for a weaker USDCAD.

Today’s Range 1.2110-1.2190

.Chart: USDCAD Daily with support and resistance levels (red lines)

Larger Chart

CAD-APRIL-27TH-1024x352

Let’s Blame The Savers

imagesJust like in the world of fashion, economic terminologies come in and out of vogue. One such economic term trending recently is Secular Stagnation. First proposed by Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen back in the 1930s, Secular Stagnation was coined to explain America’s dismal economic performance — in which sluggish growth and employment levels were well below potential.

The term is now back in style thanks to the likes of the contemporary heroes of Keynesian economics, like Larry Summers and Paul Krugman; and is based on the notion that a chronic savings glut has resulted in the economy operating well below potential. The notion that the developed world is trapped in some type of stagnation is something I can agree with.

However, the reasoning offered for this stagnation completely dismisses the role of central banks and assumes low growth and interest rates are instead being driven by those pesky savers. This theory is not only philosophically and economically bankrupt, it also dismisses all of the factual evidence about the actual decline in worldwide savings rates.

What Krugman and Summers fail to realize is; when interest rates are high, people are compelled to save more. And on the other hand, when interest rates are low they tend to save less. Supporting this theory, in the 1970s when interest rates neared 20%, the US savings rate hit an all-time high of 14.6%; today it averages closer to 5%.

Not surprisingly, Japan, the poster child for secular stagnation, has seen a shocking drop in household savings. Savings rates that averaged as much as 20% in the 1980’s, hit a negative 1.3% in March of 2014. It’s no coincidence that this negative savings rater concurred with its 0.3% 10-Year Note yield and highly-negative real interest rates.

Savings in the European Union has also fallen along with lower interest rates manufactured by the ECB. Household savings was at 13.3% in 2009, but fell to 10.5% by the first quarter of 2014. The truth is despite Summers and Krugman’s desire to lay the “blame” with savers, there is no proof of a world-wide savings glut. These Keynesians never seek to explain who or what would have caused global consumers to undergo such a mass hypnosis into the propensity to increase savings.

This is because no such increase in savings rates exists. In fact, 28 percent of current U.S. workers have less than $1,000 in savings that could be applied toward their retirement, according to a new Employee Benefit Research Institute and Greenwald and Associates survey. And, 57 percent of consumers say they have less than $25,000 in total retirement savings. Indeed, the so-called “savings” referred to by these market manipulators is really just central bank credit masquerading as savings. And this investment capital should only have become manifest through productivity growth and deferred consumption — not by central bank fiat.

The Real Cause of Secular Stagnation

Over the past seven years the Federal Reserve printed $3.7 trillion with the hopes of spurring economic growth. But ask yourself, who did this money actually go to?

At the onset of the financial crisis Ben Bernanke didn’t run around America like Ed McCann–knocking on doors and handing people checks to pay off their underwater mortgages. On the contrary, the first tranche of money in the form of TARP and the AIG bailout went to banks in order to allow them to remain solvent.

Then, three rounds of QE bought distressed assets on the books of banks with hopes this would allow them to make new, less questionable, loans. But, who were the banks supposed to lend to? Consumers were already loaded with debt because they didn’t get a Fed bailout.

Adding to this condition of excess reserves piling up in the private banking system were new and more onerous regulations. Dodd/Frank legislation encouraged banks to park new money with the U.S. Treasury. And the leftover money more easily found its way into the stock market than it did in the pockets of consumers. Thus, creating the massive bubbles that now exist in bonds and equites and also greatly exacerbating the trenchant wealth gap between the rich and the poor.

But, ironically Krugman and Summers acknowledge these Fed-induced asset bubbles and see them as our only hope. In fact, Summers argued in a speech delivered to the IMF that today’s world needs bubbles just to achieve anything close to full employment. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman doubled down on that specious reasoning in his blog stating; “Bubbles may be necessary to make up for insufficient demand, high unemployment, and sluggish growth.”

Instead of allowing the economy to work through a short-term painful deleveraging in order to clear mal-investments, pay down debt and pave the way to real sustainable growth, Messrs. Summers and Krugman would rather cheerlead the economy through a series of never-ending booms and busts that is causing the global middle class to become a passing fad. It appears Keynesians, that dominate global politics and central banks, have completely lost faith in economies to rebound and for markets to clear. They have acquiesced to a command and control economy built on phony central bank interest rates and credit.

The truth is real savings and real investment do not cause secular stagnation, but are rather the very foundations of productivity and growth. However, the develop world’s current condition of secular stagnation is brought on by central bank debt monetization; which leads to asset bubbles, debt saturations and the desolation of middle classes. In reality, the economy is mostly suffering from the stagnating brains of those who control governments and banks. And it is this blatant form of secular stagnation that will soon bring down the entire global economy.

7 Bargain Stocks With Great Values for Under $10

bargain 185x185These stocks provide opportunities in several sectors

In the markets, sometimes the words “bargain” or “cheap” can be confusing, which is a good reason to refer to my Blue Chip Growth investing advisory for guidance.

A bargain stock can sell for $300 a share; an expensive stock could sell for $8 a share.

These seven stocks — Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ:SQNM), Array Biopharma Inc (NASDAQ:ARRY), Emcore Corporation (NASDAQ:EMKR), Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ADR) (NYSE:ASX), Vonage Holdings Corp.(NYSE:VG), AU Optronics Corp (ADR) (NYSE:AUO) and Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX) — are both bargains (great values) and cheap (they’re all priced under $10 a share).

 

Each one has fashioned a special niche in a particular sector that has plenty of room for growth. These are more than single-stock stories and instead based on secular market trends, which means not only do these stocks have opportunities to grow their businesses, but they are also potential takeover candidates.

My Blue Chip Growth investing advisory can help investors stay on top of the best stocks to buy, and these seven bargain stock pose enticing opportunities.

….read about all 7 HERE

SWOT Analysis: What’s Buoying the Demand for Bullion?

Strengths

 

  • Gold jewelers are betting the Indian Akshaya Tritiya festival will buoy demand for bullion. Jewelers expect the festival could drive up sales by as much as 30 percent over last year’s level. Already, gold imports are estimated to have hit 125 tons in March, compared with just 55 tons in February and twice the amount imported a year earlier, suggesting jewelers have stocked up well. The holy day of Akshaya Tritiya, which fell on April 21, is considered by Hindus as an auspicious day to purchase gold. It is the nation’s second biggest bullion-buying festival.
  • After a two-month hiatus, Russia’s appetite for buying gold is back. The nation increased foreign reserves of bullion to 39.8 million ounces as of April 1, compared with 38.8 million ounces a month earlier. The 30 ton purchase was the most since September. Russia is the fifth-biggest holder of gold and thus the move sends a bullish signal to the market. 
  • Comstock Mining announced that for the first quarter of 2015 its weighted average gold grades improved by 63 percent from a year earlier while silver grades improved by 113 percent. Strip ratio improved to 1:1 from 4.8:1 the previous year. Lastly, the company expanded its existing heap leach pad in a consistent move with its recently expanded water control permit. In other news, Balmoral Resources confirmed it intercepted 19.55 gram per tonne gold over 44.45 meters at its Martiniere property in Quebec.

 

Weaknesses

 

  • Gold traders are bearish on expectations that improving U.S. economic data will back the case for higher interest rates.
  • It has been almost two weeks since gold prices sustained a move in either direction for more than a day, the longest period since September. This paralysis has been a consequence over the lack of consensus about the timing of a Fed rate hike. The Federal Reserve begins their next two day policy meeting on April 28. 
  • While PIMCO has come out declaring that the commodities correction is over, the firm also said it does not expect a sharp recovery. 

Opportunities

 

  • UBS believes it is seeing increasing signs of deteriorating cash flows, deteriorating appetite for low quality credit and deteriorating credit conditions in the U.S. Recent data from the National Association of Credit Management hinted at a significant reduction in credit extended in March and a sharp rise in credit applications rejected. Corporate receivables are also on the rise. All of these data points are classic late cycle signals.

1

 

  • RBC Capital Markets forecast appetite for gold by central banks will hit 275 tons this year. That level would equate to the second-largest increase in 50 years. Overall, central banks have been net buyers of gold for 14 straight quarters to present and the RBC analysts said the demand helped mitigate bullion’s losses in 2014.

2

 

  • According to BCA, China is aiming to make the RMB a fully convertible currency by the end of 2015. Consequently, capital account reform will accelerate markedly in the coming months. Another consideration in this regard is the twice-a-decade review of the IMF on Special Drawing Rights (SDR) scheduled later this year. The Chinese government has been pushing to include the RMB in the SDR basket, but failed in its 2010 attempt as the RMB was not regarded as “freely useable.” Achieving full convertibility under capital account transactions is regarded as a critical prerequisite.   Purchasing gold to back the RMB is one of the strategies China is employing to make its money a reserve currency for international trade. 

 

Threats

 

  • Barrick Gold is facing an investor revolt ahead of its annual meeting for the second time in three years, as two of Canada’s largest pension funds said they will not support the board of directors. The funds cite low confidence in the ability of the directors to effectively exercise their duties to shareholders’ level of satisfaction. The main sticking point is the outsized executive compensation.
  • Laurence Fink, chairman of BlackRock, has said gold’s traditional role as a store of wealth has been usurped by contemporary art and apartments in cities such as New York and London. He said gold has lost its luster given there are other mechanisms in which you can store wealth that are inflation-adjusted. 
  • Venezuela’s central bank signed a $1 billion gold swap with Citibank. Although details are unknown, experts calculate that the bank will charge an interest rate of between 6 and 7 percent.  It’s obvious Venezuela needs dollars it’s another story regarding what Citibank has planned for the gold.

 

http://www.usfunds.com/

 

 

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