Gold & Precious Metals
We came across an article at Bloomberg today, talking about silver supply troubles. We get it. The price of silver has rallied quite a lot, so the press needs to cover the story. They need to explain why. Must be a shortage developing, right?
At first, we thought to just put out a short Soggy Dollars post highlighting the error.
Then we thought we would go deeper. Here’s a graph showing the price action in silver since the beginning of the year, overlaid with our abundance indicator… CLICK HERE to read the complete article
According to Tom McClellan, the number of shares outstanding in the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures TM ETN VXX 0.31% has been an excellent leading indicator for the S&P 500 lately, and the most recent numbers are extremely bearish.
“VIX futures ETF extremely popular right now. Can this possibly end well?” McClellan tweeted on Tuesday along with a chart showing the inverse correlation between the S&P 500 and the number of outstanding VXX shares in recent years… CLICK HERE to see the chart
Patrick examines some of the risk / reward trading opportunities he sees upcoming for the reat of the spring and into the summer.
Over the last several weeks, in both the daily blog and weekly newsletter, I have been laying out the technical case for a breakout above the downtrend. As I stated, while such a breakout would demand a subsequent increase in equity risk in portfolios, I didn’t like it. To wit:
“First, let’s remember that the current advance is not built on improving economic or fundamental data. It is built simply on ‘hope.’
With valuations expensive, markets overbought, volatility low, and sentiment pushing back into more extreme territory, there are a lot of things that can go wrong.
As shown in the following chart, the recent surge in asset prices has also turned the 50-dma sharply higher and is in the position of crossing back above the 200-dma. It is worth noting that the last time this occurred, it did fail shortly thereafter.“
….also:
“I don’t pay any attention to China’s government officials’ numbers any more than I pay attention to America’s or Germany’s or Canada’s, for that matter. None of them really know, it’s all made up. I do know that things are getting slower in China, they have to. One of their largest trading partners, Japan, is in recession. Many European nations are in recession. Parts of America are slowing down. So if your customers are slowing down, certainly parts of China must be slowing down, and there has been over-building in China.…..continue reading HERE
related:
-
I know Mike is a very solid investor and respect his opinions very much. So if he says pay attention to this or that - I will.
~ Dale G.
-
I've started managing my own investments so view Michael's site as a one-stop shop from which to get information and perspectives.
~ Dave E.
-
Michael offers easy reading, honest, common sense information that anyone can use in a practical manner.
~ der_al.
-
A sane voice in a scrambled investment world.
~ Ed R.
Inside Edge Pro Contributors
Greg Weldon
Josef Schachter
Tyler Bollhorn
Ryan Irvine
Paul Beattie
Martin Straith
Patrick Ceresna
Mark Leibovit
James Thorne
Victor Adair