Wealth Building Strategies
“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.” – Abraham Lincoln
The biggest leadership challenges I ever faced in my career invariably ended up within me. While the initial problems may have been external, the battle to solve the problem was fought in both my mind and heart. This internal struggle by a leader to know, do, and be the right thing, at the right time, becomes the true test of character.
Leadership trouble erupts when the external problems overwhelm the internal abilities and emotions, usually as a result of insufficiently developed good leadership habits and self-disciplines. While literally any dummy can be a good leader during great times by maintaining the status quo, true leadership is tested during times of tremendous stress, strife, change and conflict. Just like a top athlete who is paid to perform for the entire season, the athlete earns his or her pay in the critical moments of a championship game. This game-ready leadership state starts with developing and then maintaining tremendous levels of self-discipline compounded by systems that do not fail while under stress.
I first noticed this in the corporate world, while starting my career in a 1,400 person high-volume, advanced electronics manufacturing facility, which was an incredibly fast-paced and stressful environment. Some of our skilled, long-term production supervisors could withstand almost any chaos that came their way (fires, fights, equipment breakdowns, etc.) with inner calm, the new supervisors (myself included) had not developed that inner fortitude.
Over the years and through subsequent executive roles, I realized that I needed to develop myself to a high level of self-discipline and good habits, in order to exude confidence and calm to others for whom I had the responsibility of leading.
This has been a lifelong project, and today, I want with you to share the three most important principles that helped me develop self-leadership.
Self-leadership Principle #1: Make self-discipline a priority
The world has a way of giving you a heaping dose of discipline, one way or another. Either you are disciplined by the world (i.e. You’re fired! or Whoops, we lost your money! or You’re next in line for promotion, I promise!) or you discipline your own world, on your schedule, and your terms. I prefer the latter not the former. Deciding to actually develop internal leadership skills, such as character, emotional control and developing a Positive Mental Attitude, is the first and most import step.
Self-leadership Principle #2: Build a success system that works
Building good self-leadership is a long process, and requires a system that constantly builds, reinforces and corrects the right types of behaviors, while mitigating or eliminating the harmful behaviors. About 20 years ago, I wrote down the types of behaviors I wanted to develop into a brief series of statements I call Percy’s Creed. Each morning I read through the Creed and ask myself how well I did on living the principle the previous day, and check the ones on which I did well and mark down the ones I didn’t. Not only does this provide a daily reminder of what is most important, it also enable me to self-correct and make regular, daily improvement. My creed is posted here for your information. Feel free to share it.
Self-leadership Principle #3: Focus on continuous improvement
It’s been said that if you are not moving forward, you are moving backwards. I agree. In fact, I have embraced the concept of Continuous Improvement as one of my most important career builder and life principles. We sometimes make it too difficult to achieve a goal by focusing purely on its attainment, rather than on the progress we are making towards attaining it. Like progressive resistance while weight training, the progress attainment towards the goal makes us stronger, better and more resilient as we strive to achieve what is most important in our lives.
more from Eamon Percy: Six Steps To Building A Great Team
Since 1950, the six month period between April 30th and November 1st has been much weaker than the other six months. In the 66 years through April 30, 2016, the bad period actually lost 260 Dow points while the good period gained 17,141 points. That’s pretty significant. All the gains since 1950 have occurred during that good six month period.
More recently, since April 30 of 2007, the good period has gained 4,004 Dow points while the bad period has lost 610 points.
But, be aware that significant multi week rallies can occur within the bad period and not all bad periods are negative. The one, starting after April 30, 2014 gained 809 points.
The five week moving average of the percent bears from the American Association of Individual Investors dipped under 25. Readings that low have frequently, but not always, portended weakness.
FIVE DAY RSI WAS RECENTLY OVERSOLD
In spite of some bearish considerations, we could experience some strength in the near term because of some short term gauges being oversold..
GOLD
.Gold has been in the midst of the most significant rally since mid 2013. Is this the end of the bear market? Too early to tell. It is overbought (arrow).
CANADIAN MARKETS
The Canadian market seems to have ended its bear market in mid January. It’s a resource based market and with the rally in oil and gold, it’s not a surprise.
TRADING FOR APRIL
For the month, our hotline recommendations lost .07 SSO points. The SSO itself gained .38 points. A very flat month.
From December 31, 2010 through March 31, 2016, The S&P 500 gained 808 points or 64.2%. The SSO gained 39.8 points or 167.3%. Our hotline advice resulted in gains of 67.76 SSO points beating the buy and hold by almost 28 SSO points. We can see the progress in the chart below.
FINAL THOUGHTS
In listening to the talking heads on CNBC, some commentators dismissed the “sell in May and go away” quote. Obviously, they are speaking without researching.
I think it’s ridiculous for Fed officials to be constantly making speeches that are mutually contradictory. Their desire for some publicity keeps the markets in turmoil. As Rick Santelli says, “you don’t see board members from General Electric traveling around and contradicting each other”.
With earnings rather poor, it’s hard to imagine a new upleg from current levels. We need to retreat and regroup.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
Since 1993, we have given instructions to mutual fund investors to be either 100% invested or 100% on the sidelines. According to Timer Digest, of Greenwich, CT, which monitors over 100 advisory services world wide, we are only one of four
services to have beaten the buy and hold over the past ten years.
We were rated # 1 for the past ten years at year end, 2003, 2004 and 2005. In 2006, we slipped to # 3. At the end of 2007 we were ranked # 4.
Since then, we have dropped out of the top ten for stocks, but we were bond timer of the year at the end of 2007 and 2008 which means we were ranked number 1 both years. We were rated # 1 in gold timing for 1997 and again in 2011. We were #2 in gold for the year 2014.
MANAGED ACCOUNTS
In association with Financial Growth Management, we can make available to you a low risk bond income program. Your account would be actively managed through TD Ameritrade or Trust Company of America.
Your funds will be exchanged between high-yield bond funds and money market funds based on a proprietary mathematical model. Our goal is to return 10-12% per year during a 3 to 5 year market cycle with very low risk.
If you would like more information, please contact Ray Hansen at 714 637 7784.
END OF LETTER
related by Lance Roberts M/T Ed:
- Gold and related assets continue to stun most analysts and investors as they surge relentlessly higher against American fiat currency.
Double-click to enlarge this spectacular daily gold chart (to the right) - While gold has risen dramatically, the powerful inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern now in play suggests that the upside fun may soon accelerate.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly bars dollar versus yen chart.
- In my professional opinion, the head and shoulders top pattern on this dollar-yen chart was created by bank and FOREX money manager concerns about a new upcycle for inflation. That is beginning to appear as the US business cycle peaks.
- If inflation becomes a problem, the Fed will have no choice but to hike rates, creating a surge out of global stock markets that will dwarf the flows that happened after the December rate hike.
- The huge liquidity flows into the world’s key risk-off assets of gold and the yen that I predicted would follow the Fed’s first rate hike has already stunned almost everyone, including top analysts at Goldman Sachs.
- On that note, please click here now. Goldman was clearly shocked by the latest BOJ (Bank of Japan) announcement. Their analysts are now openly asking the BOJ not to intervene in the FOREX market to buy the dollar.
- It appears Goldman is very concerned that if the BOJ prints yen and buys the dollar, the BOJ could be overwhelmed by market forces betting against them, and the yen would blast higher anyways. That would create a powerful new leg higher for gold, silver, and precious metal stocks!
- Gold has been rising against the dollar since the Fed’s rate hike in December. I think the upside action can continue, but it’s going to start becoming more “interesting”; substantial volatility is poised to become a major theme in the short term.
- The bottom line is that a one hundred dollar sell-off in gold is likely soon, but so is a near-immediate recovery to another intermediate trend high from there.
- For investors who didn’t understand the dollar-yen and dollar-gold symbiotic relationship, this rally has been shocking. Many gold community investors bravely bought at lower prices, but they sold it quickly, for very tiny profits.
- If they do buy again now, sharp sell-offs could quickly spook them out of their new positions. That’s a tough situation to be in, and there’s only one solution: Intestinal fortitude.
- Investors need to understand that to most value investors, the overall price of gold is now low. That’s also true for gold stocks, because the gold bullion rally has raised mining company profits. So, core positions across the sector can be accumulated here, provided the investor brings the required intestinal fortitude to the table to manage the increased volatility they will have to endure.
- I would not buy any trading positions now, even though gold may continue to surge hundreds of dollars higher before any major sell-off occurs. I’m running a light sell program in the $1300 – $1350 area for my trading positions, but it’s certainly not a “top call”.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this monthly bars gold chart. While short term charts can be used to fine-tune the big picture, I only use them to buy and sell when the price of gold is near monthly chart support or resistance.
- In the current situation, gold is approaching the $1307.80 high just as the dollar approaches the 105 support zone against the yen. It’s probably a “no brainer” play to book a bit of gold market profit now, without calling any top in the market. The $1392.60 and $1526.70 price areas are the next light profit booking zones of interest for me.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. I haven’t annotated this monthly bars silver chart because I really don’t need to do so. Silver can out-perform or under-perform gold, but its overall price action is generally a mirror image of the gold price action.
- Silver enthusiasts can book light profits on silver positions as gold trades near my support and resistance targets of $1307, $1391, and $1526.
- It’s normal for long term technical buy signals to occur just as an asset reaches an area where it may pause in the short term. This price action can confuse investors. As always, intestinal fortitude must be the main tool in every metal investor’s toolbox!
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. This GDX daily chart shows the gold stock sector has also entered a profit booking zone, albeit at an area where large value-oriented fund managers are buyers.
- As the gold stock rally gained momentum, I suggested that investors could “chase price”. Core position accumulators can still do that, if they sold out earlier in an attempt to “top call” the rally.
- Short term traders can stand aside now, but be ready to board their gold stock rocket ships again, if GDX stages a three day close above $30.
- If GDX can do that, the dollar-yen support at 105 would probably be failing badly, and GDX would begin a mighty blast higher, towards my much higher $36 – $38 target zone. The bottom line for the Western gold community is this: Whether it’s day or night, the main theme is now… higher price delight!
Thanks!
Cheers
st
For another view go to: Gold Stocks: Extended but More Upside Potential (Money Talks Ed.)
May 3, 2016
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com
Graceland Updates Subscription Service: Note we are privacy oriented. We accept cheques. And credit cards thru PayPal only on our website. For your protection we don’t see your credit card information. Only PayPal does.
| Subscribe via major credit cards at Graceland Updates – or make checks payable to: “Stewart Thomson” Mail to: Stewart Thomson / 1276 Lakeview Drive / Oakville, Ontario L6H 2M8 / Canada |
Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable reading time.
Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:
Are You Prepared?
The bears have been in charge for the last 4 years or so taking both gold and silver into the depths of despair. The associated mining companies also felt the cold with many having to postpone projects, slash dividends and implement a series of cost cutting measures.
As with most bear markets there were a number of rallies which turned out to be head fakes or bear traps as gold lost its momentum. We can all recall just how well 2015 started as gold bolted in January to higher ground bringing much joy to the perma gold bulls. Alas gold couldn’t maintain it strength and spent the remainder of the year drifting to its lowest level for some time. Fast forward to this year and we can see once again gold has started like an Olympic sprinter taking the price of gold to within touching distance of $1300.00/oz. Silver was a tad slow to start but has now joined the fun by breaching previous resistance levels and confirming golds strength.
The restructured leaner mining companies really caught the bid and rocketed to higher ground with the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) having bottomed at exactly 100, more than doubling to close at 230. This is by far the best start that precious metals producers have had in a long time.
If you do not have a position then it is an agonizing time for you as you wrestle with the question of ‘should I – shouldn’t I’ purchase stocks right now. Well there two answers to that question. Firstly if you are intending to hold for five years or so then it probably won’t make a lot of difference if you buy now. However, if you intend to trade this market in order to take advantage of the oscillations on the way up and down, then you may be better off waiting for some of the froth to dissipate from this sector.
If we take a quick look at the chart of the HUI we can see that the downtrend has been well and truly broken and the rebound has been more dramatic than most expected.
The technical indicators, the RSI, MACD and the STO are now in the overbought zone suggesting a near term pullback. Also look at the gap that has opened up between the HUI and its 200dma which stands at 134.77. A reversion to the 200dma is not an impossibility, which would mean the stocks giving up more than half of their recent gains. So it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a pullback of a lesser extent, to say around 50points, which would take the HUI back to the 180 level.
If such an opportunity were to present itself then it should be taken seriously and an acquisition programme should be implemented by layering into the good quality stocks in preparation of the next leg of this bull market, which isn’t that far away.
Go gently.
Related: Another view from Jordan Roy-Byrne – Money Talks Ed – Gold Stocks: Extended but More Upside Potential
Disclaimer: www.gold-prices.biz makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents our views and replicates trades that we are making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered adviser to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. Past performance is neither a guide nor guarantee of future success.
Along with the currencies of most other commodity-exporting countries, the Canadian dollar has been in near-freefall lately.
Gold, meanwhile, has been sucked down with the rest of the commodities complex, falling hard since 2013. But only in US dollars. For Canadians, with their weak domestic currency, gold has been behaving just fine. It’s up 25% in C$ terms over the past 17 months.
Protection from currency trouble is why people own it, and why in the vast majority of places its owners are very happy.
For an excellent review of the Gold Market be sure to read Clive Maund’s Gold Market Update – Money Talks Ed
-
I know Mike is a very solid investor and respect his opinions very much. So if he says pay attention to this or that - I will.
~ Dale G.
-
I've started managing my own investments so view Michael's site as a one-stop shop from which to get information and perspectives.
~ Dave E.
-
Michael offers easy reading, honest, common sense information that anyone can use in a practical manner.
~ der_al.
-
A sane voice in a scrambled investment world.
~ Ed R.
Inside Edge Pro Contributors
Greg Weldon
Josef Schachter
Tyler Bollhorn
Ryan Irvine
Paul Beattie
Martin Straith
Patrick Ceresna
Mark Leibovit
James Thorne
Victor Adair