JT Long of The Gold Report 

So far, 2012 has been a banner year for the stock market, which recently closed the books on its best first quarter in 14 years. But Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey insists that time is running out on the ticking time bombs. Next week when Casey Research’s spring summit gets underway, Casey will open the first general session addressing the question of whether the inevitable is now imminent. In another exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Casey tells us that he foresees extreme volatility “as the titanic forces of inflation and deflation fight with each other” and a forced shift to speculation to either protect or build wealth.

The Gold Report: You told us about two ticking time bombs last September—the trillions of dollars owned outside the U.S. that could be dumped if the holders lose confidence and the trillions of dollars in the U.S. created to paper over the 2008 liquidity crisis. It’s been six months since then. Have we averted the disaster or are we closer than ever?



Doug Casey: Things are worse now. The way I see it, what’s going to happen is inevitable; it’s just a question of when. We’re rapidly approaching that moment. I suspect it will start in Europe, because so many European governments are bankrupt; Greece isn’t an exception, it’s the norm. So we have bankrupt governments trying to bail out the European banks, which are bankrupt because they’ve loaned money to the bankrupt governments. It’s actually rather funny, in a perverse way. . .

If it were just the banks and the governments, I wouldn’t care; they’re just getting what they deserve. The problem is that many prudent middle class people are going to be wiped out. These folks have tried to produce more than they consume for their whole lives and save the difference. But their savings are almost all in government currencies, and those currencies are held in banks. However, the banks are unable to give back all the euros that these people have entrusted to them. It’s a very serious thing. So European governments are trying to solve this by creating more euros. Eventually the euro is going to reach its intrinsic value—which is nothing. It’s the same in the U.S. The banks are bankrupt, the government’s bankrupt and creating more dollars so the banks don’t go bust and depositors don’t lose their money.

I’m of the opinion that if it doesn’t blow up this year, the situation is certainly going to blow up next year. We’re very close to the edge of the precipice.



TGR: Is the problem the debt, or all of the currency that has been pumped in?


DC: It’s both. We have to really consider what debt is. It’s the opposite of savings because savings means that you’ve produced more than you’ve consumed and put the difference aside. That’s how you build capital. That’s how you grow in wealth. On the other side of the balance sheet is debt, which means you’ve consumed more than you’ve produced. You’ve mortgaged the future or you’re living out of past capital that somebody else produced. The existence of debt is a very bad thing.

In a classical banking system, loans are made only against 100% security and only on a short-term basis. And only from savings accounts that earn interest, not from money in checking accounts or demand deposits, where the depositor (at least theoretically) pays the banker for safe storage of his funds. These are very important distinctions, but they’ve been completely lost. The entire banking system today is totally corrupt. It’s worse than that. Central banking has taken what was an occasional local problem, a bank failing from fraud or mismanagement, and elevated it to a national level by allowing fractional banking reserves and by creating currency for bailouts. Debt—at least consumer debt—is a bad thing; it’s typically a sign that you’re living above your means. But inflation of the currency is even worse in its consequences, because it can overturn the whole basis of society and destroy the middle class.



TGR: What happens when these time bombs go off?



DC: There are two possibilities. One is that the central banks and the governments stop creating enough currency units to bail out their banks. That could lead to a catastrophic deflation and banks going bankrupt wholesale. When consumer and business loans can’t be repaid, the bank goes bust. The money created by those banks out of nothing, through fractional reserve banking, literally disappears. The dollars die and go to money heaven; the deposits that people put in there can’t be redeemed.

The other possibility is an eventual hyperinflation. Here the central bank steps in and gives the banks new currency units to pay off depositors. It’s just a question of which one happens. Or we can have both in sequence. If there’s a catastrophic deflation, the government will get scared, and feel the need to “do something.” And it will need money, because tax revenues will collapse at exactly the time its expenditures are skyrocketing—so it prints up more, which brings on a hyperinflation.

We could also see deflation in some areas of the economy and inflation in others. For example, the price of beans and rice may fall, relatively speaking, during a boom because everybody’s eating steak and caviar. Then during a subsequent depression, people need more calories for fewer dollars, so prices for caviar and steak drop but beans and rice become more expensive because everybody is eating more of them.

Inflation creates all kinds of distortions in the economy and misallocations of capital. When there’s a real demand for filet mignon, there’s a lot of investment in the filet mignon industry and not enough in the beans and rice industry because nobody is eating them. And vice-versa. And it happens all over the economy, in every area.

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Written by Drew Voros

Legendary commodity investor offers a wide-ranging view of investment topics, in his own irascible manner.

When Jim Rogers talks, investors listen, although they might be surprised to hear what the contrarian has to say. Rogers, who may be the world’s best-known commodity investor with his Rogers International Commodity Index and best-selling books, including “Hot Commodities,” is also known for swimming against investment currents and traditional thinking. HAI Managing Editor Drew Voros spoke with Rogers from his home in Singapore about gold and how he ignores the metal’s traditional fundamentals; his concerns about “fracking”; the myth of the Chinese real estate bubble; as well as what he calls “fake” good news emanating from dozens of countries facing major elections that he says are masking economic realities.

HardAssetsInvestor: As a resident of Singapore, I wanted to know if you had any insight into the country scrapping its 7 percent goods and service tax on gold. What are some of the intentions behind that?

Jim Rogers: Well, they would like to become a bullion trading center as the other places are becoming: London, Hong Kong, etc. It’s impossible to do that with a 7 percent goods and service tax on precious metals. It doesn’t expire until October, but they’re now in the process of figuring out what to do next. The country is already a trading center in a variety of things.

HAI: Do you think that will motivate some physically backed ETFs to start storing their metals there? Is that something that could happen?

Rogers: Could happen. Of course anything could happen; I don’t know what will happen. They’re still in the process of drawing up the laws. But Singapore is an obvious place for ETFs, especially for Asia because it’s completely liquid, completely trustworthy and completely neutral. Singapore has many advantages that other markets do not have in Asia.

HAI: Have your feelings about gold changed much in the last week since we’ve had the U.S. jobs report, as well as some of the euro debt problems re-emerging? We’re seeing a little bump in gold.

Rogers: I barely pay attention to the stuff you’re talking about. It really doesn’t change my view … as if you think some government statistics — which are wrong at late — would affect anything in my investment world. No, I don’t even know or pay attention to such things.

Read the rest of the Interview HERE

In the last few days I’ve received numerous emails alerting me to the fact that Mr. Dennis Gartman has stated both gold and the junior resource stocks are basically dead. Virtually all the emailers then went on to personally add this must be the best contrarian indicator as they feel his actual track record leaves much to be desired. They also point out that his own publicly-traded fund has underperformed most benchmarks.

First, let me state that unlike the true contrarian indicator and number one clown, Jon “Tokyo Rose” Nadler, Mr. Gartman actually possesses some market forecasting skills. I would pick him in an instant over the clown if one had to manage my own money. And, because I was once Chairman, CEO and President of the “Me, Myself and I Society,” I can fully understand and appreciate Mr. Gartman’s obviously strong ego. (It’s not as hard as one may think to be a legend in one’s own mind, trust me!)

My take on Mr. Gartman is he’s a closet gold bug, but he’ also a brilliant marketer and knows he would lose any serious consideration by the media and mainstream financial arena if they think he wear tin-foil hats or worships a golden cow in his backyard, which would also be very bad for his business. He’s the Vito Spatafore (Sopranos character) of the financial world – he wants to come out of the closet but he’s smart enough to know if he does his business would be whacked.

As I noted yesterday, the junior resource market has numerous factors up against it. I also noted that one possible viewpoint could be that the end has arrived and junior resource players could be the “buggy-whip investors of the 21st century”. My own prejudiced position was we’re closer now than ever to a major bottom. The fact that Mr. Gartman has thrown in the towel is indeed a bullish contrarian signal—not so much because of his personality and personal track record, but because hard core metals and mining folks like me actually wonder if he could be right this time. If that isn’t a bottom, I don’t know what is.

Quick note on gold and silver – The hate gold mongering continues as an onslaught of bearish forecasts and media articles continue unabated. But somehow gold holds key support around $1,635 and silver actually wants to go considerable higher. As noted previously, it’s best to wait until gold has two consecutive closes above $1,700 before going from defense to offense and worse case scenario is to hold some buying power if we breakdown and head to ultimate support in the $1,550 area. But please don’t hold your breadth waiting for such an occurrence.

This entry was posted on April 18, 2012 at 10:38 AM. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.

Posted in All Posts Commentary Gold by Peter Grandich

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