By Mark Shenk

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil fell the most in seven months as Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt bolstered the dollar and prompted investors to sell commodities.

Oil dropped more than 7.1 percent as the U.S. currency climbed, dulling the appeal of raw materials as an alternative investment, and equities fell. Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, sought to delay repayments, raising concern worsening defaults may hold back the global recovery.

…..read more HERE.

Ed Note: On Major Moves, Grandich has been very right and not only saved many investors fortunes, but expanded them dramatically.

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:23 AM on Friday, November 27th, 2009

My wife and daughter’s rise before 5AM to hit the stores for “Black Friday” sales woke me up. Normally, I would go right back to sleep but instead turned on the TV to see how bad the world markets were reacting to the Dubai news. I have to admit, I turned on CNBC first. I knew it couldn’t be good when the reporter’s voice sounded like she woke up and found coal in her Christmas stocking.

While I intend to have George of Agoracom use our weekly Friday discussion to exclusively discuss this event and the impact I believe it will have on the markets I follow, I would like to give you a short assessment right now.

The fact that the U.S. market was closed yesterday and is only a “half-day” of trading today,  is going to only enhance the volatility that much more here. It won’t be until early next week before one can start to get a true feel on how significant this event really is. Twenty-five years worth of experience suggests to me not to make any significant changes in my portfolio and outlook under today’s conditions.

The U.S. stock market should be sharply lower but I don’t think this was the bell ring I was looking for. It would come as no surprise that in a matter of days or weeks, whatever loss the market has today would be gained back. As much as I would like to say the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd had their “bell” rung, I think the Grinch that stole Christmas won’t come from Dubai.

I’m truly thrilled with the action in the gold market. We’re terribly overbought and this temporary swoon should end up being the “pause that refreshes.” In the long run, this should actually enhance gold’s upside so welcome the terminally ill perma-bears cries this is the top. The poor souls have little left to draw their usual lines in the sand with.

Given the mood and the fact that the U.S. Dollar was crushed last week, the current rise would’ve been a normal retrenchment IMHO. Remember, the dollar remains firmly in a downtrend until we’ve had a close above 76.50 on the U.S. Dollar Index.

George and I will be back later this afternoon.

On Major Moves, Grandich has been very right and not only saved many investors fortunes, but expanded them dramatically. On November 3, 2007 at the MoneyTalks Survival Conference, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter warned that “an unprecedented economic tsunami will hit American beginning in 2008”.   Peter advised publicly to short the US market two days from the top in October, 2007 and stayed short until the last week of October, 2008. He began to buy stocks in March 7th,  2009. He also bought oil and oil related investments near the lows after the dive from $147.
….go to visit Peter’s Website.

To HERE Peter speak and others speak on Trading go HERE:

Off to Toronto for BNN tomorrow then Montreal Investment Conference.

Quotable
“The common curse of mankind, — folly and ignorance.” – William Shakespeare

….read it all HERE

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I just have to say something about all the media comments about the dollar’s decline being the “supposed” main reason for gold’s rally. (The ultimate perma-gold bear has been crying this to anyone who would still listen to him).

Ed Note: After market 11/24 price of December Contract Gold Up:

On October 21st, the Dollar Index was 75.11 and gold $1,057.90. Today the Dollar Index closed at 75.14 and gold $1,164.10. Now I’m no “rocket scientist” but I do believe the dollar is a smidgen higher yet gold rose over $100+

The dollar has had 9 up days since Oct 28th and gold has had 3 down days. Gold rose in 7 of those 9 days. So, overall since Oct 21st, the end result is the dollar up .04% and gold 10%.

As you know, I very much wanted to debate the great “senior” gold analyst who couldn’t shoot straight because of the many inaccurate and questionable public comments he made. Unfortunately, he has a history of “ducking” and instead limits his responses to people who barely can spell gold and little else. I guess misery does love company.

Anyway,enough about the Andy Smith of the 21st century. It will soon be Thanksgiving and don’t we all have to be thankful that there, but by the Grace of God, go we?

The rest of the week will be thin trading conditions and highly favorable to the long side in equities. I continue to believe we’re in the final stages of the mini melt-up in the U.S. Stock Market. Stay tuned.

Special Note – I believe many of us who have profited handsomely from gold’s bull market these last several years owe a special thanks to www.GATA.org. I’m making a “Thanksgiving” donation for all the support and hard work they have done and help keep me on the long side. I Hope you will too.

And to Bill Murphy – ZULU!

Ed Note: Check this out Canadians:

OTTAWA — The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has finished its investigation into the missing gold from the Royal Canadian Mint and has concluded there was no theft, Tory minister Rob Merrifield announced in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

Officials at the Mint, when contacted by the Citizen, refused to speculate on what happened to the missing $15.3 million worth of gold or whether it has been recovered.

However, the Mint is understandably relieved.

“It validates what the mint already knew — that we have extremely rigorous measures in place, which makes us one of the most secure facilities in Canada,” said Christine Aquino, mint spokeswoman.

The file has been passed on to the auditor general, the Commons was told.

If the gold was not stolen, however, where did the more than half a ton of riches in one of Ottawa’s most heavily guarded buildings go?

Last June, Merrifield, the junior Transport minister responsible for the Crown corporation, told the Commons that preliminary results of an independent audit failed to determine what happened to the gold.

“I’ve instructed the mint to bring in the RCMP to examine this matter in a fulsome way,” he said at that time.

The mint made a written request for a criminal investigation later that day.

Merrifield’s remarks in June followed a series of Citizen articles detailing how officials at the mint had been quietly hunting for the gold since October 2008, when a routine inventory count could not reconcile tabulations made six months earlier with the physical stockpile.

On June 29, three weeks after the mint called on police, detailed findings of the four-month Deloitte audit ruled out bad bookkeeping and other inventory control errors for 17,514 troy ounces of missing gold and other precious metals. The news generated international headlines and fuelled speculation about what would be Canada’s biggest gold heist.

The same day, Merrifield and Transport Minister John Baird issued a joint statement calling the loss “inexcusable” and promising the mint will be “held accountable.” They added: “We have ordered the Mint to call in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. … The RCMP investigation is ongoing.” Not so. The RCMP had only been investigating whether to investigate. There was no formal case.

The mint continues to hold out hope the missing metals will be accounted for by two additional, last-ditch probes: A technical review of the processes, formulae, and benchmarks used in its gold refinery, where most of the gold went missing, and an accounting review of periods prior to October 2008.

A third review, into security and “an assessment of potential inappropriate activity by both internal and/or external parties,” also is under way. Results are expected this fall.

Meanwhile, it recently postponed a plan for the mint’s board to submit its year-end 2008 financial statements to the Office of the Auditor General until the latest reviews end. And until the statements are closed and approved, the mint cannot pay further performance bonuses to its 865 Ottawa and Winnipeg employees.

Baird and Merrifield also ordered executive bonuses frozen, “until this matter is resolved to our satisfaction.”