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3 Technical Reasons Why the Bull Market May Be Over

Investors can find plenty of fundamental reasons to think the 10-year bull market is coming to an end, with retail fund outflows, crashing yields, and the destruction of globalization all perfectly capable of signaling the next recession. However, technical price structure may offer stronger clues to market direction as we near the end of a prosperous but turbulent decade. And right now, this arcane venue is flashing warning signs that could translate into much lower stock prices.

Let’s look at three technical elements that predict the S&P 500 has topped out or will top out in coming months. All revolve around perfectly placed 2019 price action and broad brush pattern readings asserting that the rally has reached a level that can’t be sustained in the second half. What these numbers don’t reveal is the ultimate downside if bears resume control of the ticker tape, especially after more than nine months of binary price swings….CLICK for complete article

An Unexpected Boon For Alberta’s Oil Producers

Alberta light oil producers have been decimated over the last few years, and especially so in the last nine months following the “blow up” in the Canadian light oil differential in Q4/2018 to over $30 a barrel.

This extreme widening in the differential has added to the woes of an industry still reeling from the impact of the 2014 oil collapse and has prompted Alberta’s government to take the rare step of imposing…Click here for full article

Mike’s Editorial – No Denying It Now

Where are the poverty advocates and progressives who tell us how much they care about the poor? One thing for sure, they don’t care about the vast majority of First Nations directly impacted by the Trans Mountain expansion who have made it clear it’s their best hope to alleviate poverty in their communities.

The World’s First Trillion Dollar Oil Company Has A Big Problem

China’s biggest oil and gas producer PetroChina—the first company in the world to reach a US$1-trillion valuation more than ten years ago—is now so cheap that it is worth less than the value of its oil and gas reserves.

PetroChina is listed in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and New York. It has been trading in Hong Kong and New York since 2000, a year after its parent, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), created it by transferring most of the upstream assets to the new company.

PetroChina’s H-shares traded in Hong Kong give the company a current enterprise value of the equivalent of US$169 billion, while analysts at Bernstein have estimated that its proven oil and gas reserves in the ground are worth US$208.7 billion, Bloomberg reports.

Typically, no energy company should ever trade below the value of its reserves in the ground, because a premium to the resources value implies that a firm has growth potential to develop those resources, Bernstein told Bloomberg.

PetroChina, however, is currently the exception to the rule, as its enterprise value/reserves value ratio is now below 1—at 0.801, the lowest among 25 large oil and gas companies around the world that Bernstein tracks. PetroChina is also the only one of those 25 firms with a lower enterprise value than the value of its reserves….CLICK for complete article

The Final Shoe Drops On Germany’s Deutsche Bank

Forget profits for Deutsche Bank for 2019. The German lender is undergoing a radical restructuring that will see 18,000 jobs slashed worldwide and has already taken a 5 percent toll on shares.  London was bustling this morning, according to Twitter, with descriptions of staff frantically packing their stuff in order to get out the door before their security badges quit working.

And that was just London.

Trading staff in Asia were cut loose, too, and the purge also launched in the bank’s New York offices.

All in all, 18,000 jobs are expected to be cut by 2022. That means 20 percent of the bank’s staff. But mostly the focus is on investment banking operations, which haven’t earned enough to justify the risks–or the costs.

The restructuring will cost DB $8.3 billion. That comes on top of Q2 losses of $3.1 billion….CLICK for complete article

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