Daily Updates

Mark Leibovit’s has been so successful this year alone that Timer’s Digest has him ranked as the #1 Stock Market Timer of the year in 2011 so far, an award he’s won in previous years. Mark has also done so well trading Gold it has just been announced that Mark is Timer Digest’s #1 US gold timer in 2011.

No surprise Michael Campbell wanted to get Mark’s opinion on Gold and whether we are in a bear market in Stocks or correction in an ongoing Bull Market.

Here’s Mark on the Stock Market first:

Mark Leibovit: Well, there is no surprises here, we were looking for pull back into the fall but the danger of calling a bear market, which is my inclination, is that again we are in this seasonal low period of September, October when we sometimes see big wash outs. Last year we saw it in the Mid July August period and the news environment is about as bad as it can get which we tend to see near a market bottom.

I don’t want to be Pollyannaish about it and I do have theoretical lower targets. I could still see them going lower into October because we are still in this treacherous time frame but gut part of me says, “be careful here because there are year end rallies”. We have a presidential election here in the US next year and there’s all kinds of shenanigans, the plunge protection team, the Central Bank busy printing money and suddenly we can find ourselves in a big rally next year and get caught. So, I’m going to watch the volume, I’m sitting on the fence saying “hey, it’s a bear market”. As you know I’ve been bearish looking for lower numbers and we get these targets as they come down and to me it looked like we were going to get down and take out the 1102 low that we saw back on August 9th in the S&P.

We didn’t quite get through that but other indexes did; the Dow Transports went through it, the Dow went through, the total markets stock markets index did and the VTI did. So there are the reasons to believe that we had confirmation here that even if we do get a bounce you probably will still go lower and I was thinking that 1050 area in the S&P, then maybe 1,000 will be the next number and we just have to watch as there’s even risk down to 960 if you look at the chart. But a lot could happen in the next 30 days. We got a long window here in the September, October theoretical crash or sell off period that sometimes occurs this time of year.

So, I’m a bear short term but I have my finger around the buy button here a little bit if we start getting signs that it is over done and the volume starts to come into the upside. I would tell investors just sit on the side lines here if your trading. If you are doing the kind of stuff I do all the time  we took some profits in an  inverse ETF yesterday if you were on our service  thinking I can repurchase the inverse ETFs on a little bit of a bounce.  But I’m a little nervous about jumping full blown into that bear camp and saying, “we are going to hell in a hand basket here for the next two years” and I know a lot of people do share that view. There a lot of reasons out there with what is going on in Europe and other places; the housing market in the US, unemployment, all the things we are talking about but over the years being in this business as long as I have, it’s just like the worst comes and suddenly you find yourself in a huge rally. So, let’s see where we are Mid October, late October. Let’s see if any volume patterns change while continuing to play the short side on rallies and we’ll call it a bear market if we need to.

It’s been a bear market for you already if you are an investor. Look at how much the market’s come down so in reality you have lost quite a bit of money if you haven’t gone to cash or played the short side in the last couple of months. But to say here it will go on and on for a year or two… I could speculate but let’s see where we are in a few weeks.

Gold & Silver

Mark: Right now we’re inverse ETFs for silver and for gold and actually my inclination is to take profits here on Monday morning (Sept. 26th) because we hit some of our targets. I was thinking silver $34, maybe $29 and we hit the $29.70 on the spot market. As for gold people were scratching their head when I said it might get down to $1,625 or so and sure enough, we bulls eye hit that level on Friday. Volume I think was negative but maybe it will bounce and retest again or maybe go slightly lower here. We’re in a correction and we got way overbought, though there’s nothing negative about the bigger picture. We hit some of these down side targets, we may even have bottomed here. I need some more confirmation. What I am going to definitely do is take profits in my inverse ETFs with Timer Digest. We went neutral here about a week or so ago for the Long Termer’s, saying think you have got to be careful here because of the possibility of shake out. I just said in a bulletin to Timer Digest over the weekend that for Long Termer’s we are going back on a buy signal because at these levels I still want to be buying.  After all it’s fallen from $1,920 down to $1,620 that’s frankly enough for me. I am looking for $2,500 to $11,000 in gold potentially in the years ahead so… if I say $1,620, $1,650 and it goes it goes to $1,450 $1,500 and I am wrong I really don’t care at that point. I really got a good shake out here and I think we are in a good period.

Also we’re in the seasonality period for Precious Metals, I mean there is a lot of stuff that says a low here in September, October. Just like the stock market you can fine tune a little bit more for silver and gold. Sometimes you get a low in September a bounce, then down again into October then a huge move up to February. So we’re in this period that just very predictable.

In addition my annual forecast model which you see in the Gold Letter which is printed in January, said look for a high sometime in August and we had two three little tops in there. Then a sell off into October and that thing came out nine ten months ago. So, all this makes for a bullish scenario now, we’ve had the shake out and everybody thinks you got to run to hell in a hand basket with gold and get the heck out of the market, its just the opposite. When it drops $100 like it did yesterday (Sept. 23rd) that’s the kind of dramatic move that shakes people out and it’s just the kind of thing that makes me want to jump in. So, between you and me I was buying yesterday… I may not be at the bottom but this is close enough to a target and a panic and we have to go a little lower to get more aggressive.

Michael Campbell thank’s Mark Leibovit for his time and excellent advice. You can subscribe to Mark’s VR Gold Letter HERE or any of Mark’s VRTrader services on a Trial Basis HERE. You can reach Mark at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or call 928-282-1275

You can also buy Mark’s new book: The Trader’s Book of Volume: The Definitive Guide to Volume Trading

 

Jim Rogers is a long-term bull on commodities based on scarcity in a growing world. Silver and gold “will both go much higher over the next few years,” he tells Economic Times. Oil prices will recover as “known quantities of crude continue to decline.” Sugar is going to “at least double or triple before this all is over.” But there’s only one sector he would buy right now:

Click here to read more…

The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices may be panicking buyers, especially those who are new to the market. However, I have been actively accumulating precious metals for more than a decade, and from my perspective, given the volatile nature of metals, this type of action is par for the course. In my experience, every sharp decline has shown itself to be an opportunity rather than a warning.
There is an old expression that markets take the stairs up but the elevator down. In this case, it seems precious metals missed the elevator completely and just fell down the shaft. But this type of sharp decline can be characteristic of a bull market. However, these drops tend to shake out the leveraged speculators and those who have jumped reluctantly on the bandwagon. At the first whiff of uncertainty, these uncommitted investors throw in the towel, leading to increased volatility.
This kind of sentiment tends to be overly emotional and misses the big picture. This latest gold sell off was sparked by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s admission last week that Washington’s Keynesian stimulus has failed. He admitted that despite trillion-dollar deficits and a gross devaluation of the dollar, the economic picture remains bleak. As such, he outlined the Fed’s “Operation Twist” his latest stimulus effort. Taking the Chairman’s distress to heart, investors dumped “risk assets” like gold and silver. But stimulus is the very reason why we have been buying precious metals in the first place.
While the Fed has been careful to avoid describing the Twist as new stimulus, this is exactly what it is. It is a policy that was first tried, and failed, in the early ’60s. I’m sure that it will fail again. Instead of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet with fresh money printing, it tries to encourage more borrowing and lending by lowering long term interest rates. Right now, the move has restored confidence. But I don’t believe that it can last. When it fails, more quantitative easing will be unleashed.
In the meantime herd instincts seem to have taken over and many people are making bad decisions. They’re betting that the Fed has turned off the monetary spigot for good, forcing investors to “get defensive.” Losses from the recent broad stock market sell-off are likely generating margin calls, and many investors may be taking profits from their gold and silver investments to cover.
It’s my belief that they are as wrong now as they were when this happened back in 2008. The reality is that the US economy is most likely in the midst of a depression. I believe the Fed and the Administration are going to do whatever it takes to mask that fact – and their only tools are spending and printing. If the economy fails to revive, I believe many more banks will start failing. To prevent another highly unpopular round of bank bailouts (possibly termed TARP II), the Fed will likely launch its next round of quantitative easing (QE III). If I’m correct, the prospects for gold and silver should be bright.
Given the gains we have seen thus far in 2011, many people may have felt this bull market had gotten ahead of them. They may be lamenting a train that had left the station. Well, perhaps the train just stopped, and even backed up a bit. I don’t expect it to idle for long.
Remember gold is, in my view, temporarily losing its luster because the dollar is temporarily regaining some of its shine. But those buying dollars now are those who were surprised by the renewed weakness in the U.S. economy. They had previously sold their dollars to buy “riskier” assets that they thought would perform well as the U.S. and global economies recovered. As they concede their mistake, they are reversing those trades. They were wrong about the recovery and I think they are just as wrong about the dollar and gold.
It’s my opinion that a weakening U.S. economy is far more bullish for precious metals than a strengthening one. That is because the Fed is more likely to print money, and in larger quantities, when the economy is weak than when it is strong. And so, I’m convinced that the economy will slow against a backdrop of inflation rather than deflation. Gold and silver are traditionally the best hedges against inflation.
Viewed through this perspective, the current correction can be an opportunity to buy physical bullion. But don’t be cajoled into leveraged accounts or other gold sales rip-offs. (For more on common gold scams and rip-offs, CLICK HERE to read Peter’s recent report.*)
But if you’re looking to help protect your assets for the long-term, now may be the time. If you believe in the unreliability of paper money and the cluelessness of our economic leaders, don’t get caught in the game of trying to find the lowest possible price.

We look forward to helping you make your first purchase or add to an existing position.

If you currently have a relationship with a Euro Pacific broker call him to discuss your options, including gold and silver certificates from the Perth Mint of Australia. Visit our website or call our Perth Mint department directly at 800-993-8350.

Sincerely,
Peter Schiff
CEO & Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital
& Euro Pacific Precious Metals

 

Still confused by the 500 DJIA point rally in 48 hours? You are not alone. Here is David Rosenberg guaranteeing that your confusion will be even greater when you realize that nothing has really changed, suffice to say that the record confusion has provided the best smokescreen for nothing short of a collusive global window dressing session for massively underwater hedge and mutual funds.

Click here to read more…

WHEN the SS Gairsoppa was torpedoed by a German U-boat, it took its huge silver cargo to a watery grave.Seventy years later, US divers are working to recover what may well be the biggest shipwreck haul ever.

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