Daily Updates

The Next Crisis

Posted by Marc Faber - Business Intelligence

on Friday, 2 October 2009 14:42

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Click HERE to watch (might have to scroll down a touch) or read the summary below:

No revival in US; big economic crisis ahead:

INTERNATIONAL. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor reiterated that a big economic crisis is ahead of us as nothing has been solved in the current crisis.

Speaking to India’s CNBC-TV18 Faber said: “The cause of the financial crisis was excessive debt growth that was essentially produced by notably the American Central Bank, the Federal Reserve.”

“Now the same people who produced the crisis namely the policy makers in the US, are still in-charge and if you look at what has happened in the US over the last 6-9 months, nothing has been solved. It has been postponed through fiscal and monetary measures, precisely the measures that brought about the crisis in the first place.

So I think enjoy your ride in asset classes as long as it lasts but I think we are seeding the next crisis and it may happen in the next three months, maybe tomorrow, maybe five years, maybe only in 10 years but I think the big crisis is still ahead of us.

Exlaining his pessimism, Faber said the same fiscal and monetary mistakes from the past are being repeated.

…read full article HERE.

What next?

Posted by Mike Burnick - Money and Markets

on Friday, 2 October 2009 14:24

MM102

The Most Extreme Market Swing in Over 70 Years

Three Caution Flags Warning of a Market Correction

“The question on everyone’s mind now is what comes next? Let’s take a closer look at this rally within the context of others … and consider what signals could indicate a shift in direction.”

…..read the full article HERE.

Doubt arises

Posted by Mark Leibovit - VR Trader

on Friday, 2 October 2009 14:09

Ed Note: The above is a small excerpt from Mark Leibovit’s Daily VR Trader. The VR Gold Letter is published WEEKLY. This excerpt from 8/24/09.

0.B74

STOCKS

For the session, the Dow was off 203.00 to 9509.28, the S&P 500 was off 27.23 to 1029.85, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 64.94 to 2057.48. Volume increased on the Nasdaq but dropped on the NYSE, even though it was well above average. Breadth was weak.

Yesterday I wrote ‘The Market On Edge’ due the formation of Negative Volume Reversals ™ and fall it did. Trade started with a decidedly negative tone and never improved throughout the session. The bulls were conspicuously absent and no real rally attempts were made.

I wrote that I do not like to ignore Volume Reversal T patterns (the most recent are Negative), so even though I do feel we could trade higher in the days, weeks and months ahead, we have to tighten our belts and put in stops or simply stand aside until either Positive Volume Reversals T form or its clear the uptrend has resumed by taking out recent highs. As a result, I lightened up on the long side at yesterday’s opening and went short the S&P 500 for Platinum subscribers.

From a contrarian’s viewpoint with new 401(k) funds coming to market and barring any disastrous news, we could still very well stage another rally to retest or take out highs in the weeks ahead. So far the Street has been uniformly brainwashed anticipating a broad market washout. Until we break the rising upward channel in the S&P around 1005-1010 level on volume, I am still giving the ‘bull market’ the benefit of the doubt. My work still has unfulfilled upside potential to first 10,300-10,500 and possibly to 11,300 looking out several months.

That said, I reminded you there is an old expression that goes ‘when in doubt, stay out’.

All nine sectors fell yesterday with Financials (XLF -4.42%) and Materials (XLB -3.91%) leading the decline. Defensive sectors (XLP -0.90%, XLV -1.70%, XLU -1.43%) were down the least, though they too performed quite poorly.

Homebuilders (XHB -4.26%) and real estate (IYR -4.24%) also got clobbered as former leaders continue to struggle.

The flow away from risk was apparent as small caps (-3.4%), mid caps (-3.06%), and the Nasdaq 100 (-3.06%) fared the worst among the indices. Support at the 20 day moving averages and the lows from Wednesday and last Friday crumbled and now the indices are taking aim at their respective 50 day moving averages.

Today’s jobs report could be a market mover, and we will see if it is taken as positive or negative. Since so much good news has been baked into this market, the real market moving potential may be to the downside. Considering this is October, one certainly has to be worried about the market. We will know soon enough, as today will be interesting to say the least.

All nine sectors fell yesterday with Financials (XLF -4.42%) and Materials (XLB -3.91%) leading the decline. Defensive sectors (XLP -0.90%, XLV -1.70%, XLU -1.43%) were down the least, though they too performed quite poorly.

Homebuilders (XHB -4.26%) and real estate (IYR -4.24%) also got clobbered as former leaders continue to struggle.

The flow away from risk was apparent as small caps (-3.4%), mid caps (-3.06%), and the Nasdaq 100 (-3.06%) fared the worst among the indices. Support at the 20 day moving averages and the lows from Wednesday and last Friday crumbled and now the indices are taking aim at their respective 50 day moving averages.

Today’s jobs report could be a market mover, and we will see if it is taken as positive or negative. Since so much good news has been baked into this market, the real market moving potential may be to the downside. Considering this is October, one certainly has to be worried about the market. We will know soon enough, as today will be interesting to say the least.

 

 

ML102

ML1021

 

Marks VRTrader Silver Newletter covers Stock, TSE Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Base Metals, Uranium, Oil and the US Dollar.

Mark was named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-year period ending March 25, 2008 by TIMER DIGEST.

More kudos – Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 Intermediate Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYST SURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMING AS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
For a trial Subscription of The VR Silver Newsletter covering Stocks, Bonds, Gold, US Dollar, Oil CLICK HERE

The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only an additional $20 per month, while for Silver subscribers the price is only an additional $70.00 per month. Prices are going up very shortl, so act now! Separately, the VR Gold Letter retails for $1500 a year! The VR Gold Letter is published WEEKLY. It is 10 to 16 pages jam-packed with commentary and charts. Please call or email us right away. Tel: 928-282-1275. Email: mark.vrtrader@gmail.com .

awards

Marks VRTrader Silver Newletter covers Stock, TSE Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Base Metals, Uranium, Oil and the US Dollar.

Mark was named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-year period ending March 25, 2008 by TIMER DIGEST.

More kudos – Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 Intermediate Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYST SURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMING AS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
For a trial Subscription of The VR Silver Newsletter covering Stocks, Bonds, Gold, US Dollar, Oil CLICK HERE

 

 

“The transcending value seen in the Dollar has lost its foundation…”

A SHORT SERIES of secret memos, published and dissected at ZeroHedge, provide the “smoking gun” of gold-market manipulation. Apparently.

And given this little slew of dusty archive-digging – throwing up three documents from 1968 to 1975, each one declassified within thirty years – then “If over 40 years ago the Fed and the members of the gold ‘Pool’ were openly intervening in the gold market, one can only imagine what the situation is now…”

Go on, just imagine. Because imagination is what you’ll need if you’re going to nail type-written notes from before the Moon Landings as primary, original-source evidence that the United States’ official gold reserves – variously sold, lent, swapped or simply given away since the early 1990s – have been mobilized to suppress prices, pushing gold down from $250 an ounce a decade ago to, ummm, more than $1000 today…..

….read full article HERE.

ZeroHedge article “Exclusive Smoking Gun: The Fed On Gold Manipulation” referred to in the above HERE.

I’m not certain I would give Greenspan great market as a stock market seer, but he may have gotten better over time. He saw the stock market as frothy in 1996 (the time of his famed “irrational exuberance” remark, and was a skeptic through most of the equity bubble, then threw in the towel and decided he was a believer less than 6 months before the market top.

Nevertheless, the Maestro seems to be calling an end to the current rally, based on his view that the fundamentals will not pan out and growth will falter next year. He sees growth coming in at 3% to 4% over the next two quarters, but as Ed Harrison has pointed out, a big chunk of that is “the mother of all inventory corrections.”

From Bloomberg:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end.

“The odds are that we flatten out, even though earnings are doing very well,” Greenspan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the equity market. That flattening out will probably “put some sort of dull face” on the economy in 2010, he added.

Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. As a result, unemployment isn’t likely to decline much from last month’s 9.7 percent rate, he said. Even so, he doesn’t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year.

The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate from April through June, the best performance in more than a year, the Commerce Department said today. An unexpected decline in a gauge of business activity released today, along with a private report showing employers cut more jobs than forecast, indicate a recovery may be slow to take hold….

“We are still by any measure in a disinflationary environment,” said Greenspan, 83. “Unless we sterilize or unwind the big monetary base we’ve built up, two, three years out inflation really begins to take hold.”

 

More on Greenspan:

A Legacy of Debt and Delusion – In recent months, much has been written about the legacy of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who, after eighteen years, will retire in January. Most of the legacy discussion has been based on the steady hand of the Fed Chairman – a steady hand that has resulted in an era of low reported inflation and mild recessions, while fostering sustained growth through what many have hailed as superb monetary policy.

Others don’t see it that way.

Some believe that the Greenspan legacy will be one of debt and delusion – debt of all kinds piled high, lingering far into the future, and delusion in reflecting back, at how we have all behaved during recent years.

….more HERE

 

Greenspan: Another crisis is inevitable – It’s not clear which is worse when it comes to former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan:

  • That he was head of the central bank and left such a mess
    That, in retirement, groups continue to invite him to speak
    That the media covers these speeches so thoroughly
    That there isn’t more outrage about items 1, 2, and 3 above

…..more HERE.

 

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