In the last couple of weeks, we’ve noticed the variance of the gold Fixing price and the open market price. In the past, the two tended to dovetail giving the appearance of synchronicity. But in the last week, open market prices have tried to take the gold price down only to be pulled up by the price established at the London gold Fixing. There is a structural change happening in the market, bringing the relevance of the physical market to a far more important pricing role that it has had before. As with other markets, it is the small amounts of gold sought after in the open markets –to top-up unforeseen needs, as opposed to the amounts directly contracted with suppliers that dictates the gold price. With these alterations, that pattern is beginning to change. Why?

12/06/11 Baltimore, Maryland – Not much to report from yesterday. Dow up 78 points. Gold bouncing around.

All eyes are on Europe. If the Europeans can pull off a save…well, we’re all saved. At least for a few weeks. Maybe through the holiday season.

The euro has been remarkably stable. It has never collapsed — despite all the talk of Europe falling apart. Apparently, people with money don’t think it is in real danger. They think it is too important to let go. They may be right. And the more people talk about the ‘end of Europe’ the more it doesn’t end. Instead of letting it go, the authorities become more and more stubborn in trying to hold it together.

It’s hard to know how this will play out. But we feel we know how this week will go. Frau Merkel and Monsieur Sarkozy will put together a new plan… It will include promises of fiscal tightness along with monetary looseness. The EZ money is expected to put short-term investors’ fears at ease. The fiscal austerity, it is hoped, will help long-term investors sleep better at night.

Governments will pretend to tighten up. The ECB will lower interest rates and print up some new ersatz money. What could go wrong? The combination of mendacity and counterfeiting should do the trick…for a while. The liquidity from the central bank will come like Christmas pudding, or perhaps more like spiked eggnog. It will put some cheer into the markets during this ‘dark passage’ of the winter solstice. And then, the promises of austerity will allow everyone to think that things will be fine in the long run too.

So…keep your eyes on Europe…and your hands on your wallet.

Meanwhile, the US is keeping its eyes on football games and the race for president. Newt Gingrich has pulled ahead in the Republican field. According to the papers, he’s the only candidate that seems to know what he was talking about.

That is probably true. A man like Herman Cain was out earning a living…building a business…creating jobs. He didn’t have the time to keep his eyes on every flimflam coming out of Washington. How could he be expected to know about every disastrous piece of legislation, wrongheaded policy initiative, regulatory meddle, and military boondoggle that has come down the pike in the last 30 years? Newt on the other hand, had not only his eyes…but his fingerprints…on practically every one of them!

That makes Newt the leader of the pack. Americans don’t want a leader who admits that he has no idea of what is going on. They don’t want an honest president who will offer to ‘learn on the job.’ They much prefer a professorial blow-hard who claims to have all the answers in advance… All he has to do is to speak with authority and confidence, even if he is saying absurd and obnoxious things.

And they can love a scalawag, too. But can they love one as un-loveable as Newt Gingrich?

How about this? A new theory of government.

“I can’t lead. And I don’t want to follow.” — Martin Clark

Yes, dear reader, we’ve been thinking.

We have been disappointed with political ideas and theories of government. They are nothing but scams, justifications, and puffery. One tries to put something over on the common man…the other claims it was for his own good…and the third pretends that he’d be lost without it. Most are not really ‘theories’ at all…but prescriptions, blueprints for creating the kind of government the ‘theorist’ would like to have. Not surprisingly, it is a blueprint that flatters his intellect and engages his imagination.

But it does not answer the critical questions: Why do we let other people tell us what to do; are we not all equal? What is the purpose of government? What does it cost and what benefits does it confer?

You may find these questions have drifted far afield from our usually Daily Reckoning fare. But they’ve been on our mind. We’re coming up on a major election in the US. Several men have come forward offering to take charge of the US government. Maybe it would be worth wondering what it is that they are taking charge of. And since The Daily Reckoning is free, we feel entitled to write whatever we damned well please.

Government is a fact. It exists. It is as common as stomach gas. It is as ubiquitous as lice and as inescapable as vanity. But what is it? Why is it? And what has it become?

We know very little about the actual origins of government. All we know, and this from the archeological records, is that one group often conquered another. There are skeletons more than 100,000 years old, showing the kind of head wounds that you get from fighting. We presume this meant that ‘government’ changed. Whoever had been in charge was chased out or murdered. Then, someone else was in charge.

Tribal groups, or even family groups for that matter, probably had “chiefs.” They could have been little more than bullies…or perhaps respected elders. Over the millennia there were probably as many different examples of primitive ‘government’ as there were tribes. Some elected their leaders. Some may have chosen them randomly, for all we know. Many probably simply conferred leadership by consensus. Some probably had no identifiable leaders at all. But it seems to be a characteristic of the human race that some people want to be in charge…and many people want someone to be in charge of them.

In adversity, there was probably an advantage to having a leader. Hunts were often collective enterprises. There were also group decisions to be made…about how food was stored up or rationed out, for example, that would affect the survival of the whole group. Under attack from another group, a strong, able leader would make the difference between life and death.

We can guess that people enter into leader/follower roles today because they are programmed for it by evolution. Those who can’t or won’t…perhaps they died out many millennia ago.

We don’t have to look back to the Last Glacial Period to see what happens in small political units. We can see them today. They are all around us. Every church has its governing board. Every community has some form of government. Every corporation…group…club…every place where humans get together seems to develop a political/social order. Rules evolve. Leadership arises. Informal groups typically yield to the strong personality. Juries try to control it. Families resist it. Dinner parties try to avoid it.

But that’s just the way it is. Some people seek to dominate. Others like being dominated.

Trouble is, there is usually more than one person or one group that wants to do the dominating. This leads to conflict. Treachery. Murder. Rivalry. And elections. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We’re talking about the origins of government and trying to guess what they were like. On a small scale, we conclude, they were both extremely variable in form…and extremely limited in scope. That is, how much governing can you get away with in a small group? Not much. You can boss people around, but they won’t take too much bossing. And there is always a rival bosser who is ready to topple the big boss if he should lose his popular support. In a tribal setting, we imagine that the strongest, fiercest warrior might have been able to set himself up as the governing authority. But he could be stabbed in the back as he slept…or even shot with an arrow in a hunting accident. Even in the best of circumstances, his reign wouldn’t last much longer than his own strength.

In a small town, government proceeds tolerably well. There is not much distance between governors and the governed. The latter know where the former live…and how they live…and how little difference there is between them. If the governors over-reach, they are likely to find themselves beaten in the next election…or in the middle of the street.

But as the scale increases…as the distance between the governed and the governors increases…and as the institutional setting grows and ages…government becomes a bigger deal. More formal. More powerful. It can begin governing more effectively.

The first large scale, long-term government we know about was in Egypt. After the unification of the upper and lower kingdoms in about 3,150 BC, the dynastic period began. It continued for two millennia, not ending until the Romans conquered Egypt in 30 BC. We don’t know exactly how government worked during those many centuries, but we know that a theory of government arose out of them. At the time, it was not considered a theory at all, but a fact. The ruler was divine. A god.

As a theory it is a good one. It answers the question: why should you take orders from another human being? In Ancient Egypt, the question didn’t arise. Because Pharaoh was not another human being. He was something else. Precisely what he was…or what people thought he was…is not clear. But the archeological record shows that he was treated as though he was at least a step or two higher up on the ladder than the rest of us. If not a full god, he was at least a demi-god…a missing link between man and the heavens.

If that was so…and who are we to doubt it?…the theory holds together perfectly well. The divine authority is transmitted from heaven to man via his intermediary…the pharaoh.

You might think that would be the end of the story. It was not. There were Asiatic settlers moving in the delta area — the Hyskos — who apparently had a different idea. And the Thebans. And the Nubian. And the Assyrians. And the Hittites. And hundreds of years of internal warfare against dozens of different groups…not to mention the struggles within the divine families themselves.

If God had wanted his man on the throne, you’d think he would have done more to help him. Or at least you’d think he would have been a little clearer about who His man was. Why let people guess and rumble, trying to decide who is really God’s choice? But who can figure the mind of God? Maybe the whole divinity hypothesis was just a lie. Maybe God liked to see His man get a workout. We can’t know.

Pharaohs may have lived like lords. They may have governed like gods. But they died just like everyone else. And after the 30 dynasties, as counted by Menes, the whole system was kaput. Cleopatra Ptlolemy got herself rolled up in a carpet so she could spin out at the feet of Julius Caesar. She had a child by him…but then went over to Marc Antony’s side. That proved a mistake. Caesar’s nephew, Octavian, was better organized and a shrewder politician. Antony’s army was beaten at Actium.

But the idea of a divine ruler survived. Antony had already begun to feel the blood of divinity pumping in his veins. And then, after he was out of the way, hardly had the half-god pharaohs gone to their graves in Egypt than the half-mad Caesars in Rome started to sprout wings…

More to come…

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Bill Bonner

 

Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America’s most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books,Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning. Dice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill’s daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010. 

Special Report: How Will Your Life Change If The U.S. Gov’t Can’t Borrow Another Dollar? Complete political and social unrest could be just the beginning. You owe it to your family’s safety and security to watch this urgent video report right now. There might not be much time for you to act… Don’t wait, watch now.

Read more: A New Theory of Government…http://dailyreckoning.com/a-new-theory-of-government/#ixzz1fqTKOs7I

1. Small caps beat large caps.
A 70-year study of different equity classes showed that $1,000 invested in small-cap stocks grew to $3,425,250. In large-cap stocks it grew to only $973,850.

2. International beats domestic.
The average U.S. stock pays just 2.1%. That’s peanuts compared to yields overseas. Stocks in New Zealand yield 4.9%… stocks in France yield 4.7%… in Germany 4.0%… and in the U.K. 3.9%.

3. Emerging markets beat developed.
It’s much easier for a small economy to post fast growth than a large one. And investors who know this benefit. Over the past 10 years, Vanguard’s MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO) has gained an average of 10.7% per year. Stocks throughout the developed world, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, have been up an average of just 4.8% per year.

4.. Dividend payers beat non-dividend payers.
According to Ned Davis Research, firms in the S&P 500 that raised dividends gained an average of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 2008. Those that cut dividends or never paid them produced zero return over this entire time span.

5. Higher yields beat lower yields.
This is such a “no-brainer” that it doesn’t require explanation. Clearly, a bigger dividend puts more cash in your pocket.

6. Reinvesting your checks beats cashing them.
Reinvesting buys you more shares, which leads to larger dividend checks, which buy you even more shares, and so on (this is how my dividend checks have grown).

7. Tax-free beats taxable.
Tax-free securities often put more cash in your pocket at the end of the day — especially if you’re in a high tax bracket. A muni fund yielding 6.0% pays you a tax-equivalent yield of 9.2% if you’re in the 35% tax bracket.

8. Monthly payouts beat annual payout.
Getting paid monthly is not only more convenient — you actually earn more. Thanks to compounding, a stock paying out 1% monthly yields far more than 12% — it can actually pay you 12.68% if you reinvest.

….read more HERE

Ed Note: This is the general stock commentary on Marks Daily VRTrader more specifc commentary on Stocks is contained in his daily letter, not shown here.  Mark on track to be the Timer’s Digest #1 Stock Market Timer of the year in 2011 so far, an award he’s won previously. Mark Leibovit is currently ranked the TIMER DIGEST  #1 U.S. Gold Timer. To sign up for the Leibovit VR Gold Letter go to  www.vrgoldletter.com. For stocks, Gold and Bonds with VRTrader go HERE.

STOCKS – ACTION ALERT – NEUTRAL
‘Turnaround Tuesday’ had minimal impact to the current uptrend when you usually come to expect at least a one-day reversal of a trend – in this case a push lower which did not materialize. Today is Pearl Harbor day -as we all know a ‘day of infamy’, according to FDR. It is also ‘Weird Wollie Wednesday’. “Weird Wollie Wednesday”, created by Don Wolanchuk, references the Wednesday prior to options expiration. The observation made by Wolanchuk stipulates that this day is made up of manipulated price action which is primarily related to the faster deterioration of options premiums during the week prior to options expiration; many traders are rebalancing and rolling their options forward. Using WWW as a guide, it is not uncommon to see strong moves down in the market place on the Wednesday prior to options expiration week. Like ‘Turnaround Tuesday’, nothing is carved in stone.

As you know, there is a big European summit Friday and now the talk is that they will not just print 400 billion of whatever but 900 billion.

 My sources that the real number is closer to 25 trillion. Hardly a dent and even so the sheer size of the bailouts needed will ultimately lead to the demise of European fiat currencies and the likely breakup of the Euro. Perhaps only the strong ones will survive or perhaps countries will go back and print their own sovereign currencies and be able to rob Peter to pay Paul the way we do it here in the good old U.S.A. Like the U.S.A, the people who are attempting to fix the problem (the Timothy Geithner who is in Europe this week) are the ones who caused the problem. It’s like having a thief teach morals to school children. There is also talk that the ECB is going to lower its interest rate, which currently stands at 1.25%. Such a move will make the ‘Don’t Worry, Be Happy’ Wall Street crowd along with CNBC real happy. What it really means, of course, is that the ECB is trying to prevent ‘Eurogeddon’ and it ain’t good news at all! According to the New York Times yesterday, “A rate cut in Australia and lowered economic growth estimates by the Asian Development Bank on Tuesday highlighted the extent to which the economic woes of Europe and the United States are spilling over into this part of the world.” That said, the ‘Santa Claus’ rally begin in early December and it appears it may still have a ways to run. I’m hoping for a correction to get back long (for a trade), but may not play ball this time around if we don’t get that pullback.

About Mark Leibovit
Mark Leibovit’s has been so successful this year alone that Timer’s Digest has him ranked as the #1 Stock Market Timer of the year in 2011 so far, an award he’s won in previous years. Mark has also done so well trading Gold it has just been announced that Mark is Timer Digest’s #1 US gold timer in 2011.
The above is just a portion of Mark’sVRTrader. Much more analysis contained every day in To subscribe just send an email to mark.vrtrader@gmail.com,  call 928-282-1275 or Click HERE to Subscribe.

With all the bad news on the plate, it might seem incredible that someone would actually predict a bottom for metals shares. How can shares go up in such gloom? Actually the answer is pretty simple. Shares don’t move based on fundamental analysis or technical analysis. Lots of people use them but how many people do you know who are rich from using a ruler?

Markets are moved by psychology and little more.