Bullish – With The Path Of Least Resistance UP

Posted by Todd Market Forecast

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“We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan”

DOW                                                        + 46 on 400 net advances

NASDAQ COMP                                   – 23 on 300 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND                        Bullish


     Another lower opening, but again buying came in immediately. However, this time the market didn’t just keep going up. It began to look a little tired. After all, the S&P 500 is up 10% since mid November. Favorable seasonality did it again.

     I believe that we are close to some sort of pullback, but I’ve been thinking that for days and so far it hasn’t happened.

     We’re still making a pattern of rising bottoms and rising tops on the important indices and until that changes, the path of least resistance is up.

     Even the NASDAQ Composite, which has been weaker, relatively speaking, is still sporting this pattern (arrow).


TORONTO EXCHANGE:  Toronto gained 30 for the day.                                          

GOLD: Gold moved down $19. Some said it was concern the economy was getting better. I doubt that. More likely because Morgan Stanley lowered guidance for the year.

BONDS: Bonds were down slightly on Thursday.

THE REST: The dollar was up slightly. Gold, silver, copper and crude oil were all lower.                              


Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.

System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Friday.

System 7 traders are in cash. Stay there on Friday.                  

Stock investors We long Intel from 21.61. We’re now down a bit. Stay with it.    


   Initial claims were 330,000, less than the expected 360,000. PMI manufacturing came in at 56.1, better than the consensus 54.0. On Friday we get new home sales.


We’re on a buy for bonds as of January 8.              

We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of November 19.                      

We’re moving to a sell for gold as of today January 24.

We’re moving to a sell for silver as of today January 24.    

We’re on a buy for crude oil as of November 19.        

We’re on a buy for copper as of January 22.          

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange TSX as of November 21.  

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Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

 No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.


We provide daily commentary via e-mail for the stock market, gold, oil, bonds, currencies and stock index futures. Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific. We also publish a monthly newsletter.

    Our approach is mainly technical in nature. We pay attention to chart patterns, volume, overbought – oversold indicators and market sentiment.  However, consideration is also given to fundamentals such as interest rates, Fed policy, earnings and the economy.

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