In this July market update Brooke describes specifically how conditions differ this particular July from those of years previous. Indeed the period July 19th – July 27 has produced an average loss of .4% in the time span from to1950 to 2012.
Further examination of the data shows that August also tends not to be a good month and that from 1950 to 2011 September has not only been the worst month of the year, producing an average loss of .6%, but has also only been positive 44% of the time.
While the market can rally during this time period, there has been 1 of 3 causes of a strong rally present when it has:
- If the market is bouncing off a big bottom after a correction (“not the case this year”)
- The economy is improving strongly after a recession (“definitely not the case this year”)
- There is an increase in liquidity, Quantative Easing, coming into the market (“has been the case in the last few years but is definitely not the case this year”)
More on the Market as well as a Sector Update in the 2 videos below:
Thackray’s Sector Update: