The action in a number of markets reached some stressed out levels. This showed up in the Downside Capitulation in The Canadian dollar. At the end of January that was on the daily, weekly and monthly readings. The low then was 78.13. The rise was to 80.88 and last week’s low was 77.92, which looks like a good test. Now it is up to the 50-Day ma and getting above would be constructive.
Crude oil has been trading with the $C, or the other way around, and seemed have concluded a test last week.
Our March 19th Memo noted that the “Ides of March” target of a tradable low on gold seems to have worked out and the rally can continue on what could be an intermediate move. What is again needed in this department is gold shares to be outperforming the bullion price and silver to be outperforming gold.
Both seem underway as the gold/silver ratio has jumped from .132 to .143, which is fast.
Base metals (GKX) have also completed the test last week and have jumped. Much the same holds for the grains (GKX). The overall index, the DBC has been working on the same pattern.
Our last Pivot was dated March 12th and it was looking for a “pause” in the hot dollar action. The decline and associated rallies on commodities makes sense to us and could be another “Rotation”. The hot stuff gets tired and the boring, perhaps terrifying items come back from the dead.
Getting through some moving averages will help and with that the action could run into May.
It is uncertain how the senior stock indexes will perform, but the ChartWorks has noted that the Biotechs (IBB) which have been super-flyers have clocked a rare Trifecta Sell.
BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS – WEBSITE: www.institutionaladvisors.com