Bill Gross: Bond Fundamentals Confusing

Posted by Bil Gross - Janus Capital Group

Share on Facebook

Tweet on Twitter

USGG10YR-Index Graph

“Happiness has dominated risk markets since early November and despair has characterized global bond markets.”

“For 10-year Treasuries, a multiple of influences obscure a rational conclusion that yields must inevitably move higher during Trump’s first year in office. When the fundamentals are confusing, however, technical indicators may come to the rescue and it’s there where a super three decade downward sloping trend line for 10-year yields could be critical. Shown in the chart below, it’s obvious to most observers that 10-year yields have been moving downward since their secular peak in the early 1980s, and at a rather linear rate. 30 basis point declines on average for the past 30 years have lowered the 10-year from 10% in 1987 to the current 2.40%.”

USGG10YR-Index Graph

…reading Bill Gross Investment Outlook January 2017