Last week I wrote an article on why I think the bull market in stocks is coming to an end. As usual the retail public is chasing a move that is extremely mature and ripe to reverse, while assuming that the current trend will continue. Amateurs always make this mistake at tops … and bottoms. Their emotions tell them the move will continue indefinitely. It never does.

As you can see in the following chart, dumb money traders are becoming more and more confident the further this parabolic move progresses. Professional traders, on the other hand, get more and more nervous as the market stretches further and further above the mean.

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