Be Careful

Posted by Richard Russel of Dow Theory Letters

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Via Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters – Title: “Be Careful”  With This Stock Market

These stock and bond markets may not make us happy, but we might as well get used to them, because they’re all we’ve got!

I’ve had a lot of time while in bed to watch TV and particularly Bloomberg. And I note that 90% of the time the so-called experts try to predict the path of the stock market by the way the current news is going. If the news is getting better and unemployment is looking brighter, then the stock market “should” be rallying. If the European picture is darkening, then the market “should” be shaky to weak. Follow the fundamentals, not the market!

So far, the stock market isn’t giving off any definitive hints as to what it’s doing or which way the trend is heading. I study my PTI, and its last trend signal was bullish. But as you may have noticed from the recent point and figure chart, my PTI has not been climbing to new highs. Instead, it’s forming a column of descending metrics, although it has NOT yet issued a clear bear signal.

Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index is still above their Buying Power Index, a formation that always bears careful watching. Joe Granville’s on-balance-volume statistics remain bearish as does Joe, and I always take Granville’s work seriously. My astute friend, A. Gary Shilling, is bearish because he thinks US consumers have exhausted their buying power.

Actually, the reason I so frequently talk about Lowry’s and Granville is that they are about the only two who stick strictly to technical analysis of the stock market while putting the market first and ignoring all the news of the day and the much-talked about fundamentals.

I note that the futures in the Dow are almost always the opposite of the way the market has closed. If the market closes down, the futures are usually higher, and the opposite is true if the stock market closes higher. BUT, if the market closes higher and the futures are higher, it usually means that next day will be a positive day.

This is a grinding back-and-forth market, one that is better to watch than to play.

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