A Reason To Be Optimistic

Posted by Morgan House

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Ed Note: In line with Morgan’s Optimistic thinking & much to the surprise I am sure of pessimists, a Majority of U.S. Economic Data Beats Expectations this morning. Of the large number of economic releases that came out, 11 of the 12 beat estimates and some where well above expectations. Also, durable goods, new home sales, consumer confidence, and manufacturing all trended higher this month, with consumer confidence and new home sales near 5-year highs. You can read

Why I’m an Optimist

The 2002 book Bringing Down the House told the true story of how six MIT math geniuses mastered blackjack card counting and took Las Vegas for millions. It had money, sex, drugs, and power. People loved it.

But part of the story often went misunderstood. The card-counters didn’t win every hand of blackjack, or anything close to it. The casino normally has a slight edge over players. The MIT crew’s strategy tipped those odds just barely in their favor. That meant they still lost a lotof bets. “Even the most complex systems seemed to aim at an overall edge of around 2 percent,” author Ben Mezrich wrote.

But that tiny edge was all the crew needed to succeed, provided they played long enough. When the odds are even slightly in your favor, you will win over timeeven if you lose often in between. 

That’s why I’m an optimist on the economy and the market. Maybe even a permanent optimist. 

Take a look at this chart, showing GDP per capita adjusted for inflation since 1850:

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……continue reading HERE