The American stock indices have been the strongest in the world over the past several weeks…and the more speculative American indices (The Nasdaq, the Russell 2000 etc.) have been the strongest of the lot. The American stock indices are now above their May 22 levels, when Bernanke first frightened the markets with hints of “tapering” …however the major European, Canadian, Emerging and Global stock indices are still below their May 22 levels…I view this as “further evidence” that the stock market is getting toppy…despite Central Bank “printing.”  

My Stock Market Trading Theme: I’m Anticipating lower prices…I’m just waiting for a confirmation that it’s time to get short.

The S+P 500 benchmark index is now above its May 22 levels:

The more speculative Russell 2000 (smaller cap stocks) is well above its May 22 levels and is probably one of the hottest stock indices in the world. My feeling is that when you have the more speculative markets leading the parade, whether it’s in stocks or real estate, you are getting close to a downturn…at least in terms of time, if not in terms of price!

The Dow Jones Global Stock Index (and the benchmark stock indices of  the major developed countries) are still below their May 22 highs. This relative strength divergence (and other technical indicators) actually led me to take a small short position in the S+P last week…the position was small because I didn’t really have a confirmation that it was time to manifest my bearish attitude with a short position…I covered the trade with a small profit because I didn’t like the price action and I wanted to be flat ahead of going on the road for a week. Looking at this chart I have to think that May 22 really was a Key Turn Date, despite the rally to new highs in the US markets.

Gold: I bought gold in late June when it was getting extremely oversold…I usually don’t buy a market that is falling…It usually works out better to buy a rising market…but I sold the position Tuesday of last week for a decent profit.  I had been concerned about heavy resistance around the $1350 level (gold had sold off hard in April but found a floor around $1350, bounced, then found a floor again around $1350 in May, bounced again,  but broke through that floor dramatically in June…in technical analysis once a level that had been a floor is breached…then that floor becomes a ceiling.)  After gold rallied through $1300 last Sunday afternoon on the Abe election story it quickly ran into overhead resistance (the ceiling) around $1345 – 50 so I sold out and went to the sidelines.

My Gold Trading Theme: I think the gold rally over the past month was a corrective rally from an extremely oversold condition…I don’t think we’ve found THE bottom of the decline from the Sept 2011 all-time-highs. However…if gold can soon get decisively above $1350 resistance then the next major resistance is nearly $200 higher around $1530 (although $1400-1425 could be a tough hurdle.)  If the market now turns lower I think there’s a good chance it will make new lows…BUT…at some point I’m anticipating that Market Psychology will turn bullish on gold…relative to cash and to other assets…especially the stock market.

Gold Vs. the Stock Market:  Gold fell ~36% in US$ terms from its September 2011 All Time Highs to its June 2013 lows…making a 3 year low…BUT… during the same time period Gold fell even harder in terms of the S+P 500…down ~55% to 5 year lows. I’m watching this ratio closely for a Confirmation that it has turned …I’m Anticipating a buying opportunity here, perhaps as early as this fall.

It’s a short blog this week as I’m taking a summer vacation. I’m currently on the sidelines  in my short term trading accounts. There are lots of trading opportunities shaping up in the markets I watch… I’m sure I’m going to miss some of them…and wish I hadn’t…but you gotta take a break now and then and…as a good friend says, “There’s a rumor going around that the markets are going to be open again next week!” Best wishes for good health and good trading!

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