STOCKS: The Dow was down over 80 in the early going, but as has happened so often lately, the buying came in and continued into the close. As long as this continues, there is no reason to change our investment posture.
DOW + 21 on 850 net advances
NASDAQ COMP + 22 on 400 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
GOLD: Gold pushed up still again, probably aided by a weak greenback. It has now been higher 8 of the last 11 days.
CHART: The Dow is well into record territory as it has solidly eclipsed the old highs set back in mid to late 2007. However, we need pay attention here. We’re entering a weak seasonal period and five month RSI is very overbought (arrow).
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto rose a whopping 144.
S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp gained 1.
GOLD: gold was up $8.
BONDS: Bonds gave a little more ground.
THE REST: The dollar was down sharply and this helped silver and gold. However, copper and crude were lower.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders Are in cash. Stay there on Wed.
System 7 traders We are long the SPY from 156.50. Stay with it on Wednesday.
Stock investors We are long Intel from 21.61. Stay with it for now.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Chicago PMI came in at 49.0, worse than the expected 52.4. The Case Shiller home price index rose 1.2%, more than the consensus 1.0%. Consumer confidence came in at 68.1, better than last month’s 61.9. On Wednesday we get the ADP employment report, the PMI manufacturing index, the ISM manufacturing index, construction spending and the FOMC announcement.
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We’re on a buy for bonds as of April 18.
We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of April 9.
We’re on a buy for gold as of April 22.
We’re on a buy for silver as of April 25.
We’re on a buy for crude oil as of April 22.
We’re on a buy for copper as of April 25.
We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock exchange TSX as of April 24.
We are on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Comp. as of Jan. 29.
INDICATOR PARAMETERS
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
TODD MARKET FORECAST: Stock Market, Gold and Bond Advice
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For the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, The Todd Market Forecast was rated # 1 for the preceding ten years. For the year 2006, we slipped to # 3 and in 2007, we were ranked # 5.
Our bond timing was rated # 1 for the years 1997, 2007 and 2008.
Gold timing was rated # 1 for 1997 and # 2 for 2006. Late word! We were rated # 1 for 2011.
We were # 1 in long term stock market timing for the years 1998 and 2004 and # 4 in 2010.
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