Mr. Todd is preparing to buy the plunging Stock Market short term unless it breaks an important level. Today he has also switched from bullish Gold & Silver to Bearish – R. Zurrer for Money Talks
Published @ 3:00pm PST Tuesday March 27, 2018
DOW – 345 on -1031net declines
NASDAQ COMP – 211 on 1564 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM Bearish
STOCKS: Here are the factors in today’s selling. Nvidia backed away from driverless cars and this caused a drop of 7% in the stock and that infected other high techs. Then interest rates dropped sharply and this caused trouble for the banks which like higher rates.
And of course, there is the old reliable Facebook which was down over 5% for the session and is now 22% below its high.
Another point. The end of the quarter comes on Thursday and we’ll probably see a lot of choppy action as institutions rearrange their portfolios for the quarterly reports. Of course, computer driven algorithms are a factor and are probably the reason for the extreme point action.
I’m sticking with a short term bullish posture. We’re very oversold and sentiment is extremely negative. However it’s important that we hold the closing lows of Friday.
GOLD: Gold dropped $11. The dollar was higher and the yellow metal was overbought.
CHART: The S&P 500 is doing a retest of the early February lows. This is a support zone since it arrested the last big decline. Most technical measures are oversold and we have a very high put call ratio. It should resolve to the upside unless we have entered a bear market. I’m not of that opinion, but it does require close attention.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a sell.
System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
System 9 We’re on a buy for system 9 from Friday March 16 to March 30.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Consumer confidence came in at 127.7, lower than last month’s 130.0. The Case Shiller home price index rose 0.8% more than the estimated 0.7%. On Wednesday we get oil inventories, the trade deficit and pending home sales.
INTERESTING STUFF: Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect. ——–Ralph Waldo Emerson
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto lost 82.
BONDS: Bonds surged.
THE REST: The dollar rebounded. Crude oil was lower.
Bonds –Change to bullish as of March 27.
U.S. dollar – Bearish as of March 26.
Euro — Bullish as of March 26.
Gold —-Change to bearish as of March 27.
Silver—- Change to bearish as of March 27.
Crude oil —-Change to bearish as of March 27.
Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
