For Tuesday March 22, 2016 @ 3:00 Pacific.  

                 

DOW                                                  – 41 on 250 net declines

 

NASDAQ  COMP                                 + 13 on 150 net declines

 

SHORT TERM TREND                         Bullish  

 

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND            Bearish

 

STOCKS: We had to be impressed with the market’s reaction. The S&P 500 entered the session very overbought with a 5 day RSI of 85. 

       Yet, in spite of the terrorist attacks in Brussels, the market barely blinked. This probably means further strength, but we don’t see enough strength to take a trading position, at least not yet.

              

GOLD:  Gold was up $5 on the Brussels attack, but the response was muted because of dollar strength.     

 

CHART: During this rally, we have maintained a bearish intermediate term posture. It has gone further and faster than we expected, but the S&P 500 is still in a declining tops and declining bottoms on the weekly chart and 5 week RSI is overbought.

 

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a sell.

   System 7  We are in cash. Stay there.

   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

 

News and fundamentals: The PMI Mfg. Index Flash came in at 51.4, less than the expected 52.4. On Wednesday we get new home sales.

 

Interesting Stuff: No man is entirely worthless. He can always serve as a bad example. —-Unknown.

 

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto lost 68.

BONDS:  Bonds moved back down.                                                                                                                                                         

THE REST:  The dollar was lower. Silver was slightly higher. Crude oil was slightly lower.                                                                                                               

 

Bonds –Bearish from Feb. 12.                           

 

U.S. dollar – Bearish as of March 7.                              

 

Euro — Bullish as of March 7  

 

Gold —-Bearish as of March 14.                                  

 

Silver—- Bearish as of February 22.                            

 

Crude oil —- Bullish as of March 17.                                

 

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.    

 

S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish from January 29.       

 

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.