3 PM Wednesday  October  21, 2015  

                 

DOW                                                  – 49 on 1150 net declines

 

NASDAQ COMP                                   – 41 on 1250 net declines

 

SHORT TERM TREND                          Bullish

 

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             Bullish

 

STOCKS :  The stock market was working its way higher with the Dow up about 100 when word hit that Joe Biden would not run for president. This seemed to pave the way for Hillary Clinton who has been making some negative comments about Wall Street and health care stocks.

       It’s been my experience that if the stock market wants to go up, it will. News can retard it, but not stop it. Right now, the news is pretty negative regarding earnings, the economy and geopolitics. Yet it has been going up for the entire month of October.

       

GOLD:  Gold was down $10. A stronger dollar got credit. They have to blame it on something.   

 

CHART:   The market seems a bit choppy, but if you look at a daily chart, we have a stair step pattern up for both the averages and the advance decline line. We have pullbacks, but so far the trend is higher.

 

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy as of August 26. This is almost a 1,000 Dow points ago.

System 7   We are long the SSO from 62.10. Stay with it on Thursday.         

System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

 

News and fundamentals:  There were no important economic releases on Wednesday. On Thursday we get jobless claims and existing home sales.

 

Interesting Stuff : Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.    Winston Churchill.

 

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto lost 120.                

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was lower by 5.             

BONDS:  Bonds rebounded. nicely.                                                                                                      

THE REST:  The dollar moved higher. Silver and crude oil were lower.                                                  

 

Bonds — Bullish since September 4.                           

 

U.S. dollar –Bearish since October 19.                          

 

Euro — Bullish since October 19.   

 

Gold —-Bearish since October 19.                               

 

Silver—- Change to bearish as of today October 21.                            

 

Crude oil —- Bearish as of October 12.                               

 

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish since August 27.    

 

S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish since August 27.

 

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.