Courtesy of Stephen Todd Market Forecast for Thursday July 2, 2015  

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                                 – 28 on flat breadth

NASDAQ COMP                                   – 4 on 750 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                         Bullish  

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND             Bullish

Special notice. The U.S. markets are closed on Friday for the July 4th holiday. We’ll talk to you on Monday. 

STOCKS: The market greeted a slightly worse than expected employment report with an initial surge based on the idea that this would dissuade the Fed from tightening monetary conditions.

Then we seem to have begun to worry about the Greek vote on Sunday. A no vote would probably cause some selling as this would hasten the Greek exit from the EU.

       Goldman Sachs didn’t help when they lowered estimates for S&P earnings.

GOLD:  Gold lost $3. Gold just keeps inching down, probably on the assumption that the Greeks would vote to stay in the EU.  

    NEXT DAY: Monday. No prediction. It all hinges on the Greek vote on Sunday.

CHART:   Five day RSI has just turned up from an oversold condition. This is normally good for at least a few days on the upside.

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

   System 7   We are long the SSO from 65.70. Let’s hang in here. We had a tough execution break with the sharp up opening on Wednesday. Hold through Monday.                    

   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

News and fundamentals:  Non farm payrolls showed an additional 223,000 jobs added. This was less than the expected 230,000. Jobless claims were 281,000 more than the consensus 270,000. Factory orders dropped 1.0%, The expectation was for a drop of 0.3%. On Monday we get the ISM services index.  

Interesting Stuff  “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon”. Barron Nathan Rothschild.—— This was suggested by a client. Barron Rothschild was a 19th century investor and heir to a great banking house. Some investing thoughts are very old—and quite valid—-We encourage ideas from subscribers.

TORONTO EXCHANGE:   Toronto was up 85.   

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was flat.      

BONDS:  Bonds had a slight rebound.                                                

THE REST:  The dollar pulled back. Silver bounced. Crude oil tried to rally then fell back to close lower.          

We’re on a buy for bonds as of June 11.                      

We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the euro as of June 23.                       

We’re moving to a sell for gold as of today July 2.                         

We’re on a sell for silver as of June 23.                        

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of June 4.                             

We’re on a sell for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of May 6.    

We’re on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Fund as of October 30.    

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.