3 Reasons I am Still Short the New Zealand Dollar

Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

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“When a herd ‘thinks,’ the result is not reason but an emotional interpersonal superorganic dynamic that must be the sourse of waves.  A person’s patterned psyhological dynamics asthey relate to the social environment produce an unconsious impulse to herd, which in compination with like minds produces global patterns of interactive dynamics in a shared social setting.”

Robert Prechter,  The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior


BlackSwanThree Reasons I am Still Short the New Zealand Dollar


I recently shared some reasons why I thought the New Zealand dollar represented a good longer term short position.  Since then, Kiwi (as the New Zealand dollar is affectionately known) has rallied a bit.  My longer term bet here is pretty simple.  It’s based on three rationales which are of course are interlinked:

1. China slowing on financial exposure

2. Export dependence & current account

3. NZ real estate


….read the whole Currency Currents 19 February 2014