“There is a chance that this was a bull trap. If it’s down again tomorrow, then the chances of that increase.” – www.toddmarketforecast.com 

Todd Market Forecast for Thursday September 19, 2013

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.                 

DOW                                                          – 40 on 500 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                          + 6 on 250 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                    Bullish 

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND       Bearish 

STOCKS:  Not much to say about today. It was a consolidation day and there was some profit taking. Some were saying that the economy remains weak, otherwise the Fed would have tapered.

There is a chance that this was a bull trap. If it’s down again tomorrow, then the chances of that increase. A bull trap is a high volume surge to new highs that marks a peak of sorts.  

GOLD:  Gold added a few dollars to yesterday’s explosion.  

CHART:  This is a very interesting chart. Bonds have been going down since May in spite of Fed buying. In other words, longer term interest rates are increasing regardless what the Fed wants.  We’re going to go back on a sell for now. If bonds move to 133, it will push us back to the bullish camp.

TORONTO EXCHANGE:    Toronto lost 5.                       

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp was flat for the session.                                              

BONDS: Bonds gave back some of yesterday’s sharp gains.                                                                          

THE REST: The dollar collapsed. Silver, copper and crude oil were sharply higher.                                

BOTTOM LINE:  

Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal. 

System 2 traders   We are in cash. Stay there on Friday.     

System 7 traders    We are in cash. Stay there on Friday.   

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:  

Initial claims were 309,000, less than the expected 341,000, but again, the data was not complete. The Philadelphia Fed Survey was 22.37, better than the expected 10.0. Existing home sales were 5.48 million, more than the expected 5.255 million.   

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We’re moving back to a sell for bonds as of today September 19.               

We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of September 18.                           

We’re on a buy for gold as of September 18.    

We’re on a buy on silver as of September 18.          

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of August 29.            

We’re on a sell for copper as of August 29.                  

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of August 23.           

We are on a buy for the S&P\TSX Venture Comp. as of August 16. 

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities. 

About The Todd Market Forecast

RANKED # 1 BY TIMER DIGEST

Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known stock market advisory services.           

Once per year in January, Timer Digest publishes the rankings of all services monitored for multiple time frames.

For the years 2003, 2004 and 2005, The Todd Market Forecast was rated # 1 for the preceding ten years. For the year 2006, we slipped to # 3 and in 2007, we were ranked # 5.

Our bond timing was rated # 1 for the years 1997, 2007 and 2008. 

Gold timing was rated # 1 for 1997 and # 2 for 2006. Late word! We were rated # 1 for 2011.

We were # 1 in long term stock market timing for the years 1998 and 2004 and # 4 in 2010. 

We provide daily commentary via e-mail for the stock market, gold, oil, bonds, currencies and stock index futures. We also publish a monthly newsletter.

Our approach is mainly technical in nature. We pay attention to chart patterns, volume, overbought – oversold indicators and market sentiment.  However, consideration is also given to fundamentals such as interest rates, Fed policy, earnings and the economy.

We have two main approaches. First we seek to provide specific entry and exit points for conservative investors who utilize mutual funds and ETFs. We also give precise instructions for short term traders who utilize ETFs, Options and stock index futures.