I’ve been getting a lot of flack in the press … from some readers … an even some of my subscribers for remaining short-term bearish on the metals.

Hardly surprising, when you consider that the vast majority of investors and analysts get most markets wrong, the majority of the time … buying way too often near highs, and selling out near lows. Especially when they’re so emotional about markets like precious metals.

So today, I want to give you even more details on why I am bearish on the precious metals now. But please keep in mind that on a long-term basis, I am more bullish on precious metals and commodities, in general, than ever before!

For the time being, though, I repeat my warnings: The recent excitement and accelerated move up in the precious metals is fraught with dangers. Soon, they will tank hard, and many investors will take a shellacking.

Reasons …

First, on a yearly basis, even the strongest bull markets rarely move up more than 11 years in a row on an annual closing basis, without taking a major pause.

old’s previous bear market bottomed in July 1999 at a closing low of $252.80. Counting 11 years forward means gold’s first major annual closing high should have occurred in 2010. And that’s precisely what happened.

In other words, on a closing basis, gold fulfilled an 11-year cycle high in 2010. Gold’s bull market will last much longer, as long as 21 years, but not without a major pause occurring on the tail end of the first 11-year move up.

So even though gold has now made a new intra-year 2011 high, odds strongly favor that we will see lower prices in the months ahead. The same applies to silver.

Second, gold and silver are extremely overbought on both the monthly and weekly charts.

Consider this weekly chart of gold as an example.

….view chart & more commentary & charts HERE