Update: Gold Stocks Bonds

Posted by Mark Leibovit VRTrader

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Commentary below from Mark Leibovit, TIMER DIGEST’s #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007, the #2 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2009, AND the #3 Gold Timer for the Ten Year Period ending 12/31/10. Subscribe to the VRTrader Newsletter.

Current TIMER DIGEST Signals:

Stocks – So much is news dependent day to day, but I remain bullish. Regardless of any cyclical or technical forecast, whether it is mine or Warren Buffet’s, outlier events can change forecasts and history in a split second. Technically, the market has broken first level of support at the key 50 day moving average that so many traders adhere to. We’re a long way from the 200 day moving average in all the major indexes, (for example, 1210 in the S&P 500), but that would be the ultimate line in the sand. For now, I am assuming we’re still in a bull market that got temporarily derailed and I’m awaiting clear evidence the ‘worm has turned’. So far, we’ve had a sharp wave lower on heavy volume and presumably a ‘dead-cat’ bounce on light volume. The 1249-1289 range (Wednesday’s low versus Friday’s recovery high) likely defines short-term direction.

Gold – Bull – Cycles indicate a further rally try ahead, but time is running out. New highs are still possible in Gold and Silver. I am still willing to hold my long-term positions because of my belief that with the ‘wind at our back’ and long-term cycles higher, we are best hanging in there!

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Bonds – Bearish – Fear is moving money into ‘safe’ areas and we’re getting a long overdue technical rally. My view is that this rally will afford us a inverse ETF opportunity to participate when bonds again resume their decline. We should get that opportunity sometime between now and the end of April.

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