This Leading Indicator is screaming Economic Recovery

Posted by Don Vialoux - Timing the Market

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One of the best leading indicators for U.S. stock market performance has been the performance of Fedex. The company and its operations are a pure reflection of economic economy in the U.S.. Yesterday, the company released better than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings and offered positive fourth quarter guidance. The stock opened lower, but quickly attracted the attention of institutional investors. The stock broke resistance to reach a 17 month high on significantly higher volume, an encouraging technical sign.

clip_image001_thumb17 offered a complete report on Fedex yesterday. The report includes technical, seasonality and fundamental comments. Following is a link to the report:

U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are up one point in pre-opening comments. Traders are girding for quadruple witching hour at the close today. Historically, volume and volatility in equity markets have spiked on quadruple witching day.

The Canadian Dollar gained 0.62 to 99.33 cents U.S. following release of Canada’s February Consumer Price Index. CPI on a year-over-year basis slipped from 1.9% to 1.6%. However, core CPI (ex food and energy) increased from 2.0% to 2.1%. The Bank of Canada has expressed concern about the possibility that the core rate could move higher than 2.0% implying that it may move to increase administered interest rates.

Boeing added 2% on news that the company is increasing production to match rising demand for passenger aircraft. ‘Tis the season for Boeing to move higher until June! Following is a 20 year seasonality chart compliments of

Technical Action by S&P 500 stocks yesterday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remains bullish. Another nine S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (Amersource Bergen, Bed Bath & Beyond, Duke Energy, Fedex, Gamestop, Medco Health, Moody’s, NASDAQ and UPS) and one stock broke support (Nabors). The Up/Down ratio improved from 4.36 to (355/79=) 4.49.

Technical action by TSX Composite stocks was mixed. Four TSX stocks broke resistance (Daylight, Enbridge, Davis & Henderson and Fortis) and three stocks broke support (Birchcliff Energy, Precision Drilling and Provident Energy Trust. The Up/Down ratio slipped from 2.85 to (136/49=) 2.78.

….read more HERE (just scroll down)

Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the Investment Industry. He is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts ( and a former technical analyst at RBC Investments. Don earned his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association in 1995. His CMT paper entitled “Seasonality in Canadian Equity Markets” was published in the Spring-Summer 1996 edition of the MTA Journal. Don also has extensive experience with Exchange Traded Funds (also know as Index Participation Units) as well as conservative option strategies. In 1990 he wrote a report that was released in the International Federation of Technical Analyst Journal entitled “Profiting from a Combination of Technical and Fundamental Analysis”. The report introduced ” The Eight Phases of the Stock Market Cycle”, an investment concept that continues to identify profitable entry and exit points for North American equity markets.   He is currently a member of the Toronto Society of Fundamental Analyst’s Derivatives Committee.   Now he is the author of a daily letter on equity markets available free on the internet. The reports can be accessed daily right here at