Editor Note: Money Talks highly recommends that you make a regular trip to this monday morning site to this Don Vailoux monday report where he analyses an astonishing 48 Stocks, Commodities and Index charts and, provides a “Bottom Line” and some very interesting comment.
Economic News This Week
U.S. economic data is starting to show signs of a stall in economic recovery.
October Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday are expected to increase 0.9% versus -1.5% in September. Ex autos, Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.4% versus 0.5% in September.
The November Empire State Index to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday is expected to decline to 29.00 from 34.57 in October.
September Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to decline by 0.6% versus a decline of 1.5% in August.
October Producer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.5% versus -0.6% in September. Core PPI is expected to increase 0.1% versus an increase of 0.2% in September.
October Capacity Utilization to be released at 9:15 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase to 70.8% from 70.5% in September.
October Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase by 0.2% versus 0.2% in September. Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% versus 0.2% in September.
October Leading Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to rise by 0.4% versus an increase of 1.0% in September.
November Philadelphia Fed to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip to 10.8 from 11.5 in October.
Equity Index Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) rose last week from 2.01 to (296/122=) 2.43. Number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend increased by 18. Number of stocks in a downtrend fell by 16. The ratio remains intermediate overbought, but is moving higher.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week from 73.20% to 76.60%. On Friday it moved above its 15 day moving average, a mildly encouraging technical event. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Ed Note: Five interesting Charts of a total of 48 in today’s excellent analysis. Click HERE to go right away where the entire 48 plus analysis including the “Bottom Line……… and more.
The S&P 500 Index added 24.18 points (2.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index briefly moved above resistance at 1,101.36. It remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) continue to trend higher. Stochastics already have reached an overbought level. Seasonal influences are positive. Intermediate upside potential based on the move above resistance is to 1,180.
The TSX Composite Index added another 157.26 points (1.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Resistance remains at 11,648.55 set eight weeks ago. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Seasonal influences are positive. A move above resistance will change the trend from down to up. Intermediate upside potential is to 12,600 following a breakout.
The U.S. Dollar slipped another 0.53 last week, but showed signs of a short term recovery late in the week. Intermediate trend remains down. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels with Stochastics showing early signs of bottoming. A short term recovery this week is possible, but resistance at its 50 day moving average has been consistent during the past six months and is likely to persist. The reasons for the intermediate downtrend remain: U.S. economic recovery currently is fragile at best and is almost entirely dependent on U.S. government spending at an unsustainable level.
The Canadian Dollar rose 2.06 cents U.S. last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought. The Canuck Buck remains in a two month trading range between 92.16 to 97.69 cents U.S.
Crude oil also was virtually unchanged last week. Resistance is at $82.00. Short term momentum indicators are trending lower from overbought levels.
Gold added another 24.00 U.S. per ounce last week and quickly exceeded its intermediate upside technical target of 1,117 U.S. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. A retreat to the top of its previous trading range at $1,070.70 is possible if the U.S. Dollar briefly strengthens this week.
The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries slipped 0.11% last week. The market successfully absorbed several large issues released during the week. Yield remains locked in a six month trading range between 3.21% and 3.98%.
Ed Note: If you haven’t already clicked a link to this report and analysis of 48 charts, and read the Don’s “Bottom Line” go HERE and scroll to near the bottom of the report.
Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the Investment Industry. He is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (www.csta.org) and a former technical analyst at RBC Investments. Now he is the author of a daily letter on equity markets available free on the internet. The reports can be accessed daily right here at www.dvtechtalk.com.
Impossible! That’s what institutional investors say about “Timing the Market”. Mr. Vialoux will explain that, indeed, it can be done with the appropriate analysis. He also will explain why timing the market will be important during the next decade. Buy and Hold strategies are not working anymore; Investors are looking for alternatives. Mr. Vialoux will demonstrate four techniques that can be used to time intermediate stock market swings lasting 5-15 months. The preferred investment vehicles for investing in intermediate stock market swings are Exchange Traded Funds.
Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions.