The Bottom Line

Posted by Don Vialoux - Timing the Market

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Editor Note: Money Talks highly recommends that you make a regular trip to this monday morning site to this Don Vailoux monday report where he analyses an astonishing 40 to 50 Stocks, Commodities and Index charts and, provides a “Bottom Line” and some very interesting commentary.

– a few of the 40+ charts and commentary below. Full site HERE


(Ed Note: Don’s Bottom line below charts)

Look for lots of positive economic news this week!

November Producer Prices to be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 AM EST are expected to increase 0.2% versus a decline of 0.6% in October. Core PPI is expected to increase 0.8% versus 0.3% in October.

The December New York Empire Manufacturing Index to be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 AM is expected to improve to 24.00 from 23.51 in October.

November Capacity Utilization to be reported on Tuesday at 9:15 AM EST is expected to improve to 71.1% from 70.7% in October.

November Industrial Production to be reported on Tuesday at 9:15 AM EST is expected to improve by 0.5% versus an increase of 0.1% in October.

November Housing Starts to be reported on Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST is expected to increase to 578,000 from 529,000 in October.

November Consumer Prices to be reported on Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1% versus 0.3% in October.

Results of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting are to be released on Wednesday at 2:15 PM EST. The Fed Fund rate is expected to remain the same at 0.25%.

November Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase by 0.7% versus 0.3% in October.

The December Philadelphia Fed report to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip to 16.0 from 16.7 in November.

Earnings News This Week

Monday sees Carnival

Tuesday sees Best Buy and Transcontinental

Thursday sees Fedex, General Mills, Nike, Oracle and Research in Motion

Equity Index Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. Up/Down ratio) improved last week from 2.94 to (320/108=) 2.96. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped from 74.60% to 72.80% last week. The Index remains below its 15 day moving average and remains intermediate overbought.

The S&P 500 Index added 0.43 (0.04%) last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar, an encouraging technical sign. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index once again bounced from near its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indictors currently are neutral. Support is indicated at 1,029.38. Seasonal influences currently are positive


The TSX Composite Index slipped 86.87 points (0.75%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is indicated at 10,745.25. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has returned to negative. MACD and RSI have declined to a neutral level. Stochastics have declined to an oversold level. Short term momentum indicators have yet to show signs of bottoming. Seasonal influences remain positive.


The U.S. Dollar added 0.73 last week and tested resistance at 76.82. Next resistance is at 77.47.The push above its 50 day moving average on Friday December 4th proved to be a significant technical event. Despite strength, the U.S. Dollar remains in an intermediate downtrend. MACD and RSI have recovered from short term oversold levels. Stochastics already are short term overbought. Short term momentum indicators have yet to show significant signs of peaking. Seasonal influences are negative until the end of December. Thereafter, they turn positive. The U.S. Dollar responded favourably last week to better than expected economic news (e.g. retail sales). Most likely scenario between now and yearend is a flat to slightly lower Dollar (Possible head and shoulders reversal?). Stay tuned!


The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.19 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck remains in a three month trading range between 92.16 and 97.69. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.


Crude oil fell $3.52 (4.66%) per barrel last week. Support is at $65.05. Its 200 day moving average at $65.79 also is likely a support level. Resistance is at $82.00. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics and RSI may be trying to bottom. Crude oil has a history of bottoming in mid December, forming a base and entering into a period of seasonal strength near the end of February. History is about to repeat.



Gold fell another $47.20 U.S. per ounce last week in response to strength in the U.S. Dollar. Stochastics are short term oversold, but continue to trend lower.


Gold has a history of reaching a seasonal peak in mid January.



The Bottom Line

‘Tis the season for equity markets to move higher until early January! Look for history to repeat.


Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the Investment Industry. He is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts ( and a former technical analyst at RBC Investments.  Now he is the author of a daily letter on equity markets available free on the internet. The reports can be accessed daily right here at

Impossible! That’s what institutional investors say about “Timing the Market”. Mr. Vialoux will explain that, indeed, it can be done with the appropriate analysis. He also will explain why timing the market will be important during the next decade. Buy and Hold strategies are not working anymore; Investors are looking for alternatives. Mr. Vialoux will demonstrate four techniques that can be used to time intermediate stock market swings lasting 5-15 months. The preferred investment vehicles for investing in intermediate stock market swings are Exchange Traded Funds.

Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions.