The Bottom Line

Posted by Don Vailoux - Timing the Market

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Editor Note: Highly recommend that you take a monday morning visit to Don Vailoux’s monday report where he analyses an astonishing 40 plus Stocks, Commodities and Indexes.

Trading strategies remain the same. Equity and bond prices are not compelling at current prices. Intermediate upside is limited and downside risk is significant (e. 10-15% for major U.S. and Canadian equity indices between now and late this year).

Tech Talk’s Weekly Column in the Financial Post

Why Bother Investing in the U.S.

Canadian investors owning U.S. equities have been sadly disappointed with their performance this year. Currency fluctuations have significantly impacted returns. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 11.1% to date in 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in Canadian Dollars has declined 3.4% due to weakness in the U.S. Dollar and corresponding strength in the Canadian Dollar. Should Canadian investors continue to own or buy U.S. equities? That depends partially on the outlook for the U.S. Dollar.

Seasonal influences on the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar has a history of peaking at the end of April, trending lower to the end of December and moving higher to the end of April. Seasonal trends are influenced by international financial transactions near year end and annual international trade patterns.

Technical influences

The U.S. Dollar has established an intermediate downtrend. A high on the U.S. Dollar Index was established at 89.62 on March 4th. Since then, the Index has taken a series of stair step drops. Its downtrend recently was confirmed when support at 77.43 was broken. Next support is at 75.88. Thereafter, support is at 70.70. A recovery bounce within the intermediate downtrend is likely in the short term. Momentum indicators such as Moving Average Convergence Divergence, Relative Strength Index and Stochastics are short term oversold.


Chart courtesy of

Fundamental influences

Rising supply and falling demand will lead to a lower U.S. Dollar. The supply of U.S. Dollars is rising rapidly due to an easy monetary policy and a liberal fiscal policy. The U.S. government is literally printing money in order to boost the economy out of its current recession. Meanwhile, the demand for U.S. Dollars is declining. Central banks of foreign countries including China, Japan and the Middle East oil producers already hold large positions in U.S. Treasury bonds valued in U.S. Dollars and have expressed concerns about the plethora of new bonds coming to market to finance the economic recovery. International bond buyers have become increasingly reluctant to add to their positions due to fear that the value of the U.S. Dollar will decline, U.S. interest rates will rise, and bond prices will fall.

What to do

Protect your equity investments against a likely decline in the U.S. Dollar until at least the end of the year. Investment opportunities include ownership of Exchange Traded Funds that are fully hedged against weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Exchange Traded Funds that track gold and gold equities are particularly interesting. Barclays Global Investors, Claymore Investments, Bank of Montreal and Horizon Beta Pro offer a wide variety of fully hedged Exchange Traded Funds that track major U.S. equity indices and commodities priced in U.S. Dollars. Please check their websites for background information and selection.

ETF News

Interesting comments on the harmonization of sales taxes in Ontario and British Columbia in Friday’s Globe Investor! Harmonization could add 8% to management fees in Ontario and 7 percent in British Columbia. Detrimental impacts include:

  • Higher costs for investors in Ontario and British Columbia. Given that MERs on mutual funds are much higher than the MERs on ETFs, investors holding mutual funds will be particularly hard hit. Many mutual fund holders will consider the possibility of switching from mutual funds to comparable ETFs
  • A decline in institutional interest in Canadian ETFs when comparable investment products are available in the U.S. Institutional investors will gravitate to the lowest cost investment product. Individual investors are less likely to follow because currency conversion costs frequently would more than offset the benefit of a lower MER.
  • Volume in ETFs will decline and bid/ask spreads likely will rise as institutional investors move their trades to the U.S.

Mutual fund companies and ETF sponsors are considering the possibility of moving location of their funds to Alberta where no sales tax is charged.

Actively managed ETFs have arrived in the U.S. and Canada. Last week, Harry Dent, a U.S. economist and author known as the “sage of doom and gloom” launched the DentTactical Fund, an actively managed ETF.

In Canada, AlphaPro Management has three offerings and expects to launch 10 to 12 over the next year. According to AlphaPro President Howard Atkinson,”We certainly see an opportunity to build an actively managed ETF family”.

Interesting Comment From

Hirschhorn: Why You May Never Make Money as a Trader

While there are a lot of traders out there, many of them don’t make any money. Well, it’s time for a wake-up call folks. Here are six reasons why you do not — and may not ever — make money as a trader:

You don’t put in the proper amount of effort. You don’t put in the full-time commitment it requires to be profitable in trading because you treat it like a hobby. Trading is not a part-time job. It’s serious business.

Failure to be disciplined and consistent with your process. There’s no excuse for this. It’s all up to you.

Trading like a gambler instead of a trader. You’re taking irresponsible risks rather than thinking in terms of probabilities and trading when you have an edge.

Actually putting on trades without a solid game plan. What are you thinking? You must know your game plan and execute it.

You over think things. Trading is a simple game — up, down, sideways. Keep it simple and make money.

Not trusting yourself to do what you know you need to do. You spend too much time listening to other people. Trust yourself and execute what you know.

The good news: every one of these things is entirely in your control. All you have to do is choose to make things happen.


Following is an excerpt from the IMF announcement on Friday:

IMF to Proceed with Limited Sales of Gold
By Glenn Gottselig

  • Sales conducted under safeguards to avoid disruption of the gold marketEssential part of IMF’s new income model
  • Gold sale to boost IMF’s capacity to assist low-income countries

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the sale of a limited portion of the institution’s gold holdings, stressing that the Fund will conduct the sales in a manner that does not disrupt the international gold market.

The Board approved the sale of up to 403.3 metric tons, or about one-eighth of the Fund’s total gold holdings. The proceeds will help finance a new income model for the IMF, making the 186-member institution less dependent on its lending revenue to cover expenses, which include surveillance of members’ economic and financial policies and other non-lending activities. Part of the money raised will also help boost financing for concessional lending to low-income countries.

“I am delighted that the Executive Board has given its overwhelming backing to limited gold sales to put the financing of the IMF on a sound long-term footing, and to enable us to step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries,” Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated. “These sales will be conducted in a responsible and transparent manner that avoids disruption of the gold market.”

Precautions to prevent market disruption

As the third largest official holder of gold after the United States and Germany, the IMF recognizes that it needs to pay close attention to the potential effect of its actions on the gold market. Certainly, unexpected large sales of gold could disrupt the gold market.
The IMF is therefore taking a number of precautions to prevent market disruptions. Importantly, a firm limit on the amount of gold to be sold has been set at 403.3 metric tons, and the gold market has been aware of this amount for some time, as it has not changed since the Executive Board endorsed the new income model in April 2008.
Transparency will play a key role in the gold sales, with the IMF set to inform markets before any sales on the gold markets begin. Prior to any sales on the market, the IMF would be prepared to sell gold directly to central banks or other official sector holders if they expressed interest. These sales to official sector holders would be conducted at market prices, and would shift official gold holdings without changing total official holdings.

Any gold sales on the market would be phased over time, following an approach similar to the one used successfully by the central banks participating in the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

Under this agreement, which was renewed in August, the participants announced ceilings on total sales of 400 tons annually, and 2,000 tons in total during the five years starting on 27 September 2009, and noted that the Fund’s sales can be accommodated under these ceilings.

As a result, on-market gold sales by the IMF will not add to the announced volume of official sales.

Regular external reporting on gold sales will also be provided to assure markets that the gold sales are being conducted in a responsible manner.

Gold equity indices and ETF have a similar technical pattern to gold. Intermediate trend remains up. However, short term momentum indictors (RSI and Stochastics) are showing early signs of rolling over. According to Thackray’s 2009 Investors’ Guide, the period of seasonal strength for gold equity indices ends on September 25th. Technical indicators suggest that the current period of seasonal strength is ending. Investors keying on September 25th should start to take profits. Other investors will want to hold until the end of the next period of seasonal strength in the first week in February.



Silver added $0.23 U.S. per ounce last week. However, short term momentum indicators are rolling over from overbought levels.


Chart courtesy of
Ditto for Platinum!


Chart courtesy of

Copper continues to struggle. It slipped $0.06 U.S. per lb. last week and may be forming a modified head and shoulders pattern. A break below $2.66 U.S. per lb will complete the pattern. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend lower. The Chinese have reduced their buying. World inventories are rising.


Chart courtesy of

Aluminum has a similar technical profile.


Chart courtesy of

Disclosure: Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.


Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the Investment Industry. He is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts ( and a former technical analyst at RBC Investments.  Now he is the author of a daily letter on equity markets available free on the internet. The reports can be accessed daily right here at

Impossible! That’s what institutional investors say about “Timing the Market”. Mr. Vialoux will explain that, indeed, it can be done with the appropriate analysis. He also will explain why timing the market will be important during the next decade. Buy and Hold strategies are not working anymore; Investors are looking for alternatives. Mr. Vialoux will demonstrate four techniques that can be used to time intermediate stock market swings lasting 5-15 months. The preferred investment vehicles for investing in intermediate stock market swings are Exchange Traded Funds.

Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions.