The Bottom Line
Technicals, fundamentals and seasonal influences point to another volatile week in equity markets around the world. Preferred strategy is to continue to hold sectors that benefit from favourable seasonal influences (gold, gold equities, biotech, fertilizers) and to continue to hold a “healthy” position in cash equivalents following the profitable “Independence Day” trade.
The S&P 500 Index gained 4.13 points (0.31%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average and is testing resistance at 1,370.58. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
The TSX Composite Index added 70.83 points (0.53%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Index moved above its 200 day moving average last week and is testing its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned from positive to negative.
The U.S. Dollar gained 0.25 last week. The Dollar remains locked in a four month trading range between 72.93 and 75.75. Intermediate trend remains down. Short term momentum indicators recovered from oversold to neutral levels. Seasonal influences are negative at this time of year.
Crude oil gained another $3.64 (3.81%) last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar. It currently is testing its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend higher, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Gold gained $58.96 per ounce (3.98%) last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar. It moved above its 50 day moving average and is testing its all time high at $1,577.40. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. MACD recorded a buy signal on Friday. Seasonal influences (on average) start turning positive this week. Gold stocks and related ETFs continue to outperform gold, a positive technical sign for both.
….read more of Don’s Monday Report with 50 Charts analyised HERE