Quotable

“Predicting the future is always a crap shoot, no matter how hard economic modelers try to convince you otherwise. Getting a grasp on the here and now is generally easier.”

“Not this time. Rarely have so many observers looked at the U.S. economy and come to such diametrically opposed conclusions. We’re either entering the Promised Land or staring into an abyss”.

“Even the business cycle gurus at the National Bureau of Economic Research came up short when they convened on April 8. Members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee met, talked and decided any determination of a cyclical trough to the recession that started in December 2007 would be ‘premature”. – Caroline Baum

FX Trading – Long rates go lower!

Is bond worry all wet?  I got caught up in the expectation of a surge in long bond yields, which hasn’t materialized.  Being in the deflationary camp, it was a dumb assessment on my part.  I think the perennial bond worry-warts have it very wrong again.   For sustenance on our deflation view we turn to Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt.

Hoisington and Hunt are the best there has been for many years on bonds.  They toil away quietly at Hoisington Investment Management Company, based in Austin, Texas.  No fanfare from this crew, just excellent analysis on the long-term trend of the…..

…..read pages 2-5 and view charts HERE.