Stocks on the Brink – Gold Uptrend, & US Dollar

Posted by Peter Grandich -

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U.S. Stock Market – Lets face it the fundamentals are ugly and it’s hard to make a case for owning general equities in this environment. Yet technically the picture isn’t half as bad. Despite all the predictions (and emails to me) predicting an imminent crash, the market has held its own. Yours truly isn’t surprised at this because it’s been my belief we would stay in a trading range where we end up net not going anywhere fast (but moving towards the bottom of the range as Election Day grows near was a thought).

Please look at the above chart and notice from the June/July period to now, the DJIA has traced out a ‘W-like” formation. We’re right up against a neckline one could draw with that formation and a break above it would be bullish. This formation is somewhat diluted due to weak volume but mustn’t be totally disregarded.

I agree with those who say there’s no fundamental reason to own U.S. equities in any significant size but after 25+ years in this game, I learned (sometimes the hard way) never to totally disregard technical patterns that fly in the face of fundamentals. The next several days bare watching.


U.S. Dollar Index – The little relief rally to the 84 area and then back to and eventually below 80 is playing out. Look for an acceleration to the downside if we get 3-4 consecutive days of closes below 80.


Gold – A few weeks ago I mentioned how gold was trading in a well-defined and bullish uptrend channel. It has continued to do so. With option expiration’s next week and well within my 2010 target of psychological resistance of $1,300, I would prefer we not hit the next payment level for our “Tokyo Rose” Relief Fund for a few days.

While we continue to have lots of negative comment about gold from the usual suspects, it’s interesting to note that new bullish enthusiasm is emerging. The gold perma-bears worse enemy is such strong physical buying that overrides the games they play on the Crimenex (Comex). Remember, they made win an occasional paper battle but they lost the war hundreds of dollars ago.

Oil and Natural Gas remain totally non-interesting to me from either side.



On Major Moves, Peter Grandich has been very right and not only saved many investors fortunes, but expanded them dramatically. On November 3, 2007 at the MoneyTalks Survival Conference, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter warned that “an unprecedented economic tsunami will hit American beginning in 2008”.   Peter advised publicly to short the US market two days from the top in October, 2007 and stayed short until the last week of October, 2008. He began to buy stocks in March 7th,  2009. He also bought oil and oil related investments near the lows after the dive from $147.
….go to visit Peter’s Website

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