November 11th 1:39pm I’d like to thank everyone at Maverick Business Adventures for allowing me to speak to you today. While I truly appreciated the time afforded to me, there is so much more to discuss. I encourage you to visit this blog at your leisure. You can registered to receive a free daily email of the blog posts, capsulizing all that’s been posted the previous day.
A good place to start to get a feel for my long-term outlook is my 25th anniversary issue from last month. I believe two movies available on the Internet are “must-see” views. They are:
www.iousathemovie.com – I believe it’s the most accurate account of the true fiscal status of the United States. The host of the video is my #1 financial guru, Mr. David Walker.
“The Third Jihad -Radical Islam’s Vision for America”. The recent horrific incident at Ft. Hood is sadly just a small preview of what this film strongly believes is underway here in the U.S. It’s very politically incorrect, but I believe this is just part of a far bigger event that I’ve called the number one factor for all plans for the future. I wrote about it recently and urge you to watch this video within the report.
A quick summary of my views are as follows:
U.S. Stock Market – A mini melt-up has been underway that’s forcing professional investors in whether they like it or not. While fundamentals are mixed at best, the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd is in control and appears on track in delivering me a wonderful gift of DJIA 10,500 – 11,000 to get bearish in again. It just may be a white Christmas!
It’s important to note that a renewed bearish stance will not likely be worldwide. I believe the future of the U.S. stock market will look like Japan has for the last twenty years – greatly under-performing most world markets and an economy that sputters along at best.
U.S. Interest Rates – The question you have to ask yourself looking out past the next few months and instead concentrating on the next few years is this: Are 3%-4% interest rates worth locking in now for the next 10 -30 years? It’s my firm belief that the FED is the sole reason rates remain so low and inevitably the day of reckoning for massive debts, deficits and a terminally ill currency will result in much higher interest rates down the road. Bonds in general are clearly the lesser of two evils but are evil never-the-less.
U.S. Dollar – Back when the U.S. Dollar Index was well above 100 (it’s now around 75), I began pounding the table that the only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead was the U.S. Dollar. I said more and more governments would move away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I constantly stated this would occur because America has been robbing Peter to pay Paul and Peter was tapped out.
Despite being terribly oversold, the U.S. Dollar can’t even mount a bear market rally. A close below 74 should bring on a quick decline to new lows, an event that should lead me to lock in tremendous profits. This may include suggesting those who converted savings in U.S. Dollars into Canadian dollars back when the Loonie was well under 80 to convert back again. Stay tuned.
Precious and Base Metals – I’ve greatly favored over-weighting precious metals over base metals and still believe that’s the way to go. I do think both groups are overextended for the very short-term and a healthy consolidation now versus another leg up now would actually be better for much higher prices in the future. I’m in no way suggesting any sales but instead proposing new buyers not approach these markets with wild abandonment.
Gold continue to be in the mother of all secular bull markets that despite new nominal highs after another, the vast majority of professionals have either missed or worse, bet against. Until such time when these wrong way bears wave the white flag, we at best should only see periods of consolidation and pullbacks limited to 5-10%.
Oil and Natural Gas – I remain dead neutral on both. Oil has been mostly a dollar driven market. I’ve targeted the $85+ area as a possible area to go short so stay tuned. The world is awash in natural gas so I think it’s best to just stand aside in this market.
Summary – Once again, I’d like to thank the members of Maverick Business Adventures for allowing me to speak to you today. While I’m not optimistic about the long-term economic, social, political and spiritual future of America, I still believe there are areas of the world that offer great investment opportunity. Commodities in general remain in a secular bull market. There are dramatic shifts underway worldwide and while one of them may be politically incorrect to speak openly about, it never-the-less will have a major impact on all long-term investments.
Geopolitical concerns worldwide, with special emphasis in the Middle East, appear ready to move to the forefront and should have a big impact on one’s investments as well. Sadly, I believe it’s not a question of if, but when Israel and Iran’s conflict becomes a military event.
The one group of Americans who will be most impacted by all that has happened and what I envision are seniors. This will have major political implications as there are now more Americans over the age of 65 than under 18. Seniors are the single biggest voting block and control most of the wealth in America. Like it or not, they will become a major force in the social, political economic and spiritual battle that is now fully underway in America.
On Major Moves, Grandich has been very right and not only saved many investors fortunes, but expanded them dramatically. On November 3, 2007 at the MoneyTalks Survival Conference, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter warned that “an unprecedented economic tsunami will hit American beginning in 2008”. Peter advised publicly to short the US market two days from the top in October, 2007 and stayed short until the last week of October, 2008. He began to buy stocks in March 7th, 2009. He also bought oil and oil related investments near the lows after the dive from $147.
….go to visit Peter’s Website.
To HERE Peter speak and others speak on Trading go HERE:
Off to Toronto for BNN tomorrow then Montreal Investment Conference.