SENTIMENT RIGHT FOR A RALLY.

The chart below shows that investors remain bearish, which is good from a contrary opinion standpoint.  They’re not as bearish as they were in June, but if the five week moving average of the number of bulls as measured by the American Association of Individual investors is under 35%, there is a strong tendency for the market to be higher six months down the road.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Since 1993, we have given instructions to mutual fund investors to be either 100% invested or 100% on the sidelines. According to Timer Digest, of Greenwich, CT, which monitors over 100 advisory services world wide, we are only one of four  services to have beaten the buy and hold over the past ten years.

We were rated # 1 for the past ten years at year end, 2003, 2004 and 2005. In 2006, we slipped to # 3. At the end of 2007 we were ranked # 4.  Since then, we have dropped out of the top ten for stocks, but we were bond timer of the year at the end of 2007 and 2008 which means we were ranked number 1 both years.

Mark Leibovit of VRTrader also say’s that despite going to a successful Sell Signal for the S&P 500 last week he is “going to stay on my newly position ‘SELL’ signal thinking this market is not finished on downside” – “Part of me says that at some point we’re going to get a big rally. After all, next is an election year and there is just too much at stake” – The above is just a minute fraction of Mark’sVRTrader. Much more analysis contained every day in Mark’sVRTrader Silver or Platinum Service. Send an email to mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or call 928-282-1275

TODD MARKET FORECAST

Stephen Todd  Registered Investment Advisor                                                           Phone 909 338 8354  –  P.O. Box 4131 Crestline, CA 92325-4131 www.toddmarketforecast.com e-mail toddmarketforecast@charter.net