Mark Leibovit’s has been so successful this year alone that Timer’s Digest has him ranked as the #1 Stock Market Timer of the year in 2011 so far, an award he’s won in previous years. Mark has also done so well trading Gold it has just been announced that Mark is Timer Digest’s #1 US gold timer in 2011.
No surprise Michael Campbell wanted to get Mark’s opinion on Gold and whether we are in a bear market in Stocks or correction in an ongoing Bull Market.
Here’s Mark on the Stock Market first:
Mark Leibovit: Well, there is no surprises here, we were looking for pull back into the fall but the danger of calling a bear market, which is my inclination, is that again we are in this seasonal low period of September, October when we sometimes see big wash outs. Last year we saw it in the Mid July August period and the news environment is about as bad as it can get which we tend to see near a market bottom.
I don’t want to be Pollyannaish about it and I do have theoretical lower targets. I could still see them going lower into October because we are still in this treacherous time frame but gut part of me says, “be careful here because there are year end rallies”. We have a presidential election here in the US next year and there’s all kinds of shenanigans, the plunge protection team, the Central Bank busy printing money and suddenly we can find ourselves in a big rally next year and get caught. So, I’m going to watch the volume, I’m sitting on the fence saying “hey, it’s a bear market”. As you know I’ve been bearish looking for lower numbers and we get these targets as they come down and to me it looked like we were going to get down and take out the 1102 low that we saw back on August 9th in the S&P.
We didn’t quite get through that but other indexes did; the Dow Transports went through it, the Dow went through, the total markets stock markets index did and the VTI did. So there are the reasons to believe that we had confirmation here that even if we do get a bounce you probably will still go lower and I was thinking that 1050 area in the S&P, then maybe 1,000 will be the next number and we just have to watch as there’s even risk down to 960 if you look at the chart. But a lot could happen in the next 30 days. We got a long window here in the September, October theoretical crash or sell off period that sometimes occurs this time of year.
So, I’m a bear short term but I have my finger around the buy button here a little bit if we start getting signs that it is over done and the volume starts to come into the upside. I would tell investors just sit on the side lines here if your trading. If you are doing the kind of stuff I do all the time we took some profits in an inverse ETF yesterday if you were on our service thinking I can repurchase the inverse ETFs on a little bit of a bounce. But I’m a little nervous about jumping full blown into that bear camp and saying, “we are going to hell in a hand basket here for the next two years” and I know a lot of people do share that view. There a lot of reasons out there with what is going on in Europe and other places; the housing market in the US, unemployment, all the things we are talking about but over the years being in this business as long as I have, it’s just like the worst comes and suddenly you find yourself in a huge rally. So, let’s see where we are Mid October, late October. Let’s see if any volume patterns change while continuing to play the short side on rallies and we’ll call it a bear market if we need to.
It’s been a bear market for you already if you are an investor. Look at how much the market’s come down so in reality you have lost quite a bit of money if you haven’t gone to cash or played the short side in the last couple of months. But to say here it will go on and on for a year or two… I could speculate but let’s see where we are in a few weeks.
Gold & Silver
Mark: Right now we’re inverse ETFs for silver and for gold and actually my inclination is to take profits here on Monday morning (Sept. 26th) because we hit some of our targets. I was thinking silver $34, maybe $29 and we hit the $29.70 on the spot market. As for gold people were scratching their head when I said it might get down to $1,625 or so and sure enough, we bulls eye hit that level on Friday. Volume I think was negative but maybe it will bounce and retest again or maybe go slightly lower here. We’re in a correction and we got way overbought, though there’s nothing negative about the bigger picture. We hit some of these down side targets, we may even have bottomed here. I need some more confirmation. What I am going to definitely do is take profits in my inverse ETFs with Timer Digest. We went neutral here about a week or so ago for the Long Termer’s, saying think you have got to be careful here because of the possibility of shake out. I just said in a bulletin to Timer Digest over the weekend that for Long Termer’s we are going back on a buy signal because at these levels I still want to be buying. After all it’s fallen from $1,920 down to $1,620 that’s frankly enough for me. I am looking for $2,500 to $11,000 in gold potentially in the years ahead so… if I say $1,620, $1,650 and it goes it goes to $1,450 $1,500 and I am wrong I really don’t care at that point. I really got a good shake out here and I think we are in a good period.
Also we’re in the seasonality period for Precious Metals, I mean there is a lot of stuff that says a low here in September, October. Just like the stock market you can fine tune a little bit more for silver and gold. Sometimes you get a low in September a bounce, then down again into October then a huge move up to February. So we’re in this period that just very predictable.
In addition my annual forecast model which you see in the Gold Letter which is printed in January, said look for a high sometime in August and we had two three little tops in there. Then a sell off into October and that thing came out nine ten months ago. So, all this makes for a bullish scenario now, we’ve had the shake out and everybody thinks you got to run to hell in a hand basket with gold and get the heck out of the market, its just the opposite. When it drops $100 like it did yesterday (Sept. 23rd) that’s the kind of dramatic move that shakes people out and it’s just the kind of thing that makes me want to jump in. So, between you and me I was buying yesterday… I may not be at the bottom but this is close enough to a target and a panic and we have to go a little lower to get more aggressive.
Michael Campbell thank’s Mark Leibovit for his time and excellent advice. You can subscribe to Mark’s VR Gold Letter HERE or any of Mark’s VRTrader services on a Trial Basis HERE. You can reach Mark at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or call 928-282-1275
You can also buy Mark’s new book: The Trader’s Book of Volume: The Definitive Guide to Volume Trading