Ed Note: a small selection of the 47 Charts Analysed on Don Vialoux’s Tuesday Morning comment HERE
The Bottom Line
The recovery in equity markets since February 5th is the start of an intermediate move by North American equity markets that is expected to last until May. However, equity markets have become short term overbought. Preferred strategy is to purchase equities and Exchange Traded Funds on weakness in sectors with favourable seasonality including silver, platinum, mines & metals, oil services, energy and materials.
Miners set for a great spring
The Canadian mining sector benefits from a series of encouraging news events during the next three months. Seasonal influences also favour the sector until May.
….read more of Don Vialoux article in the National Post HERE.
A selection of the 47 Charts in Don’s Monday report HERE.
The S&P 500 Index slipped 4.68 points (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Resistance is at 1,150.45. Support is at 1,044.50. The Index is just below its 50 day moving average. MACD and RSI continue to recover from a short term oversold level. Stochastics remain short term overbought. Seasonal influences remain positive. Current intermediate upside potential is to resistance at 1,150. 45.
The TSX Composite Index eased 79.66 points (0.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index trades just above its 50 day moving average. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics remain short term overbought. Support is at 10,990.41. Resistance is at 12,070.20. Seasonal influences remain positive. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive and historically remains positive until at least mid March. Current intermediate upside potential is to resistance at 12,070.20.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 23.55 points (0.78%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Index moved above its 200 day moving average last week. MACD and RSI are recovering from a short term oversold level. Stochastics already are short term overbought, but continues to trend higher. Support is at 2,890.02. Resistance is at 3,306.75 and 3,334.01. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative, but is close to changing trend.
The U.S. Dollar unsuccessfully tested resistance at 81.47 and is showing early technical signs of rolling over. Last week it slipped 0.21. MACD is short term overbought and moved lower on Friday. RSI has declined from above the 70% level. Stochastics fell below the 80% level late last week. Current intermediate downside risk is to the top of its previous trading range at 78.45 and to its 200 day moving average at 78.10.
The U.S. Dollar has a history of peaking at the beginning of March and trending lower from March to December. Conversely, the Euro has a history of bottoming near the end of February and moving higher until the end of May.
….read more and view the 47 Charts in Don’s Monday report HERE.
Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the Investment Industry. He is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (www.csta.org) and a former technical analyst at RBC Investments. Don earned his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association in 1995. His CMT paper entitled “Seasonality in Canadian Equity Markets” was published in the Spring-Summer 1996 edition of the MTA Journal. Don also has extensive experience with Exchange Traded Funds (also know as Index Participation Units) as well as conservative option strategies. In 1990 he wrote a report that was released in the International Federation of Technical Analyst Journal entitled “Profiting from a Combination of Technical and Fundamental Analysis”. The report introduced ” The Eight Phases of the Stock Market Cycle”, an investment concept that continues to identify profitable entry and exit points for North American equity markets. He is currently a member of the Toronto Society of Fundamental Analyst’s Derivatives Committee. Now he is the author of a daily letter on equity markets available free on the internet. The reports can be accessed daily right here at www.dvtechtalk.com.